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Reasons to be cheerful on the Global Economy

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel
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It is always difficult to be cheerful on the Global Economy when regional wars blaze and the threat of world war is about.

Chris Giles from the Financial Times gives some good reasons for hope.

Unfortunately it is behind a firewall but I'll summarise the main points he gives for optimism.


  • China opening from Covid Lockdown.
  • A loosening of Supply Chain Blockages post Covid.
  • A lack of European oil supplies not eventuating from Putin's War.
  • A reasonable oil price despite the Opec+ cartel's effort to tighten supply.
  • The major world economies not in recession despite predictions due to rising interest rates.
  • Recent reassurance to China that the US and Europe still wish to trade.

Unfortunately there are good arguments to the contrary.

Let us see how it pans out.

gg
 
Joined
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It is always difficult to be cheerful on the Global Economy when regional wars blaze and the threat of world war is about.

Chris Giles from the Financial Times gives some good reasons for hope.

Unfortunately it is behind a firewall but I'll summarise the main points he gives for optimism.


  • China opening from Covid Lockdown.
  • A loosening of Supply Chain Blockages post Covid.
  • A lack of European oil supplies not eventuating from Putin's War.
  • A reasonable oil price despite the Opec+ cartel's effort to tighten supply.
  • The major world economies not in recession despite predictions due to rising interest rates.
  • Recent reassurance to China that the US and Europe still wish to trade.

Unfortunately there are good arguments to the contrary.

Let us see how it pans out.

gg
given the Financial Times seems to support an agenda

let's throw in some alternative concepts

China is restructuring it's selective 'Covid lock-downs ' ( that is the ones in the last two years )

China is selectively choosing which supply routes to open up ( Thailand is getting hi-speed rail , Asian car manufacturers are still facing a shortage of basic chips )

there is still adequate oil it's just Europe now needs a middle-man to receive it ( normally China or India )

there is plenty of oil at the desired price , courtesy of the US strategic reserve ( others buy outside of the US dollar or euro )

the major world economies are addicted to changing definitions ( disinformation or vaccine as examples , or maybe science is consensus )

to those that read Chinese transcripts know China has repeatedly told the US about the US saying one thing and doing another

now since that very ancient Chinese general Sun Tzu , quoted all war is based on deception , one must assume we are in the middle of a trade war with a currency war imminent
 

Dona Ferentes

there's information in the price
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  • China opening from Covid Lockdown.
  • A loosening of Supply Chain Blockages post Covid.
  • A lack of European oil supplies not eventuating from Putin's War.
  • A reasonable oil price despite the Opec+ cartel's effort to tighten supply.
  • The major world economies not in recession despite predictions due to rising interest rates.
  • Recent reassurance to China that the US and Europe still wish to trade.
These hold up still.

Unfortunately there are good arguments to the contrary.
This holds up still.
 
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