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Omega's $50 sport betting challenge and tips

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Hi there

This thread is for my sports betting tips and challange,

To turn $50 into $1000 on sports betting

I did some work on the presidential election...

long story short I was rushing last night to get my analysis on election winner and states but missed the boat...

only using a bookie not betfair

but will not put them on here if anyone wants

After the fact looks a bit dodgy but can put on if anyone is reading and it did include backing trump

far outtt:(

Anyway looks like trump has the win wow-should have bet!!

The perpertual traders lament. Shoulda woulda coulda

My tips for NBL and NFL for this week

Backing / My odds at time of beting
1)Cleveland Cavaliers / 1.22
2)Portland Trail Blazers / 1.28
3)New york jets / 1.75
4)Denver Broncos / 2.05
5)Kansas City Chiefs / 2.3
6)Green Bay Packers / 1.71
Houston Texans / 1.8

Risk management is kelly approximation formula, based on my assumed prob of win,
must be Greater than .1 FF with a positive ev obviously

MY assumed prob determination is secret :cool:

But I am sticking around 5% ff betting to begin with- a bit hard with $50, anyway

Clevland already lost by 4 points:(

NOTE: I am not a professional, giving any advice these are my tips only DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

If anyone has any questions on my risk management or reasons behind choices just ask

Although I can't promise you learn anything from it hahaha
 
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Backing / My odds at time of betting

NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder 1.2
New Orleans Pelicans 2.72

NFL

New York Giants 1.94

oklahoma lost:(


More later
 
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Backing / My odds at time of betting

NFL

Detroit Lions/1.29
Kansas City Chiefs/1.23
Indianapolis Colts/1.62
Washington Redskins/1.69
 
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Backing / My odds at time of betting

NBA

Miami Heat/3.2
Minnesota Timberwolves/2.1
Portland Trail Blazers/1.61
Los Angeles Lakers/1.34


NFL
Houston texans ????
Odds seem too good
idk see how it goes


Houston Texans/ 2.9

New york pelicans holding on by 1 point to win wow tight match
good odds at 2.72 or maybe just lucky:confused:


Not enough bets yet to see how the picks are going
 
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Some a a bit old, but didn't turn out that well anyway lol:)



A couple of outsiders for NFL see how we go.. bit worried about that
No one likes Denver for some reason in NFL or NBA... Interesting.. On my assumptions(if I am right :)) is consistently undervalued lately .. or is that a coincidence
Rams game was memorable after losing after a 10 point lead with 6 mins and being major favourites... Idiots

In NBA losing by small margins 3-9 points but still getting good odds .. better than 50-50
A good sign ... I think :confused:.. considering the margins



Given my assumptions range from $45.7 first couple of bets lost to a high of $56.95 .....Now at $51.95
Not enough bet to see yet.


Will post equity graph a bit later..
I am using $2.5 per bet with bankroll until it either increases or decreases enough , is still around the same point.
Still not big enough to tell if my strategy is working.
Also made a couple of double bets, i.e on the same game at different odds
I am not taking bets with a less than .1 kelly theoretical FF position size
Also must have enough meat on the EV side

Approx date /////// Pick //////// Odds

19/11/2016 //// Philadelphia 76ers ///// 2.05
20/11/2016 //// Philadelphia 76ers ///// 2.16
20/11/2016 //// New York Knicks ///// 2.18
20/11/2016 //// Los Angeles Rams ///// 1.34
20/11/2016 //// Detroit Lions ///// 1.29
20/11/2016 //// Kansas City Chiefs ///// 1.23
20/11/2016 //// Indianapolis Colts ///// 1.62
20/11/2016 //// Washington Redskins ///// 1.69
21/11/2016 //// Houston Texans ///// 2.9
22/11/2016 //// Houston Texans ///// 3.15
21/11/2016 //// Philadelphia 76ers ///// 2.52
21/11/2016 //// Minnesota Timberwolves ///// 2.05
21/11/2016 //// Detroit Pistons ///// 2.07
22/11/2016 //// Denver Nuggets ///// 1.97
27/11/2016 //// Buffalo Bills ///// 1.23
27/11/2016 //// Chicago Bears ///// 2.58
27/11/2016 //// Cincinnati Bengals ///// 2.62
27/11/2016 //// Los Angeles Rams ///// 3.85
27/11/2016 //// New York Jets ///// 4.3
24/11/2016 //// Washington Redskins ///// 3.55
 
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picks so far from past week etc

doing alright not enough bets yet
long shots increasing variance a lot

Charlotte Hornets2.52
Detroit Pistons1.52
Utah Jazz1.29
Arizona Cardinals2.72
Orlando Magic1.95
Utah Jazz1.69
Memphis Grizzlies1.37
Toronto Raptors1.65
Portland Trail Blazers1.56
Detroit Pistons3.15
Philadelphia 76ers3.8
Los Angeles Lakers7.6
Los Angeles Lakers10
Philadelphia 76ers4.5
Philadelphia 76ers7.6
Orlando Magic1.99
Brooklyn Nets2.44
Indiana Pacers5.8
Dallas Mavericks2.3
Portland Trail Blazers2.1
Los Angeles Lakers2.7
Green Bay Packers2.62
Detroit lions3
Chicago Bears1.69
Brooklyn Nets8.6
Utah Jazz2.05
 
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So...:rolleyes:


One month is up on the challenge:

Started $50, now have $107.35


Here is the equity graph and expected value.





equity vs EV.png















Risk management

I Started with $50 and bet position size of $2.5 per bet.

At $25 I was going to decrease my position size to $1.25, but thankfully the draw-down only reached $27


Now at $100 I will start to increase my position size to $5 per bet unless I hit $50 again.


Risk and Return

Risk is incredible so far....

Even though I have been what I consider conservative!!!!

Stats per bet

sample size is still small at 115 bets
take with a grain of salt



Standard deviation 7.38%
Geomean Return 0.667%

Return so far 214.5%

Stats annualised

Rudimentary not gospel I assume each bet is a day of trading etc

Standard deviation 141%


I assume monthly compounding


Return 959366%

haahaha wow:)

That does't sound right :confused:






Future posts



For simplicity I will post the equity graph each month as an update,unless someone asks for the picks beforehand or after...


Posting the picks is visually unappealing and just clogging up space.
 
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Hi Omega.

Do you consider you have an edge with this stuff or are you just doing it for fun/gambling?
 
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Hi Omega.

Do you consider you have an edge with this stuff or are you just doing it for fun/gambling?
Yes and no

Yes because I am bias

:)

The basis of my strategy is looking at what I think the chances are and comparing this to the implied chances in the odds.

The hard part is coming up with the number, it will never be perfect.

No because...


There is not enough bets to prove an edge yet

The reason I am doing the challenge is to show that it can be done.


There is a lot of similarities between trading and sports betting.

Once I have around 1000 bets it be harder to argue either way.

But that will take a while...

The best proof is in the pudding.

By having risk management I am taking over betting out of the equation.

Also I am only using one bookie, so the spread they take is about 4-5%.

In a fairly priced market I would be losing 4-5% per bet in theory and also by spending time shopping around you can reduce the spread to 1-2%.

I expect my gains to be less than the ev, for a number of reasons.


But the simple answer is we will see...


cheers
 
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The image shows actual equity.



equity actual.png



Not making much progress this month after horror string of losses.

Betting at around 5-10% position sizing,

eg $100 bankroll = $5 bet if losing adjust at $50 bankroll to $2.5 etc etc

Interesting to see variation in results of position sizing on equity.

1%,5%,10%,20%,50% size per bet

equity changing pos.png


You can see under betting 1% means mediocrity
and

over betting 50% will send you effectively bankrupt.

This is with the same decisions, only position sizing is changing.

Cheers
 
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Dunno if this is bugging anyone else, but have you considered using paragraphs as per their intention?

Minus the spaces


Between each


Sentence that you write


Because I'm scared


that reading your posts


I might wear out my


Mouse wheel.
 
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Dunno if this is bugging anyone else, but have you considered using paragraphs as per their intention?

Minus the spaces


Between each


Sentence that you write


Because I'm scared


that reading your posts


I might wear out my


Mouse wheel.
ahahaha point taken .

I just find it easier to read like that...
 
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Not continuing this Omega?
I am only updating monthly

not looking good for the NFL/NBA book :)


Down to $32.5 after a lot of losses.

either:

1)I have overall negative edge due to bookie spread
2)my position sizing is not conservative enough
3)Variance

Out of the a last 25 bets only 7 have won

Out of those 9 have been favourites and 16 not favourites

So I suspect it could be a combination of the three points.

Update at end of month

Could be a lesson in losing...

Cheers
 
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When you lose, make your next bet 10%. When you win, make your next bet 5%. Now re-plot the equity curve.
 
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Double your posn size after every loss, halve after every win. Re-plot.

I don' agree with the doubling/halfing system here is why

1)outcomes are not dependent of each other.

So if you start with 5% and you lose then you are increasing position size with no guarantee that wins will be consecutive, ie when the next bet will be a winner.After a string of losses you go bust.
In this case .05,.1,.2,.4,.8,1.6. After 6 losses at .05 you go bust.
if you start at a lower amount, then more losses etc etc

2)eventually this leads to over-betting, which leads to ruin.
in this system I would have had to bet 100% of the bankroll on one bet.

Chart of 5% F, 10% F and current which is in between





gringottsequity.png



Chart of doubling at loss halfing at win



gringottsequityB.png





However, this does not make sense, at postion size increases to an irrational level,

ie 160% at bet 56







gringottsequityC.png



To counteract this, one can only bet with the entire bankroll . One cannot pull money out of thin air to constantly fund the bankroll.

In the adjusted graph you just have bet 100% of bankroll left. So you bet 100% instead of 160%





gringottsequityD.png





That is severely overbetting. If that bet fails, then you go bankrupt. Although it worked, in the long term eventually you will go bust or be consistently overbetting


gringottsequityE.png


It is madness to bet all of the capital on one bet.




This why people do not recommend martingale/doubling up systems, especially when the bets are independent.

Position sizing cannot turn a negative strategy into a positive one.
Eventually in the long term negative ev will kill you

But I get the feeling you already knew all this about risk management :)

Cheers,
 
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