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NZD/USD

Discussion in 'Forex and Cryptocurrencies' started by Kauri, Oct 31, 2007.

  1. MARKETWINNER

    MARKETWINNER

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    I believe finally it is time to avoid NZD. Overvalued NZD could tumble against USD. It will go down against AUD as well. I also believe NZD will have one of the biggest corrections during next 18 months. Just like stock and commodity market we could see long awaited shift in the currency cycle in the near future. NZD is number one over valued currency in the world followed by AUD and CAD. These three currencies could have bigger drop at any time now.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
     
  2. MARKETWINNER

    MARKETWINNER

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    I believe sooner than later we could see end of bull market for both AUD and NZD once we see shift in the currency cycle. We could see bigger drop in NZD and AUD against USD especially during second half this year. Thereafter down trend could continue until 2016 while having volatility. In short both NZD and AUD are more vulnerable now.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101590873

    Flying Kiwi dollar to come ‘down to earth’: Goldman Sachs

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.
     
  3. PipSafe

    PipSafe

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    NZD/USD was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent Days that sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 0.84000. As it is obvious in the picture below, price with reaching to the supportive edge of down channel also round support level has been stopped from more descend and by forming a bottom price of 0.84000 has prepared the field for ascending of price. (Sellers use the supportive edge( also round support level) of that to leave their trades.)

    As it is obvious in the picture below, there is non-ideal butterfly pattern between the top price of 0.87779 and the bottom price of 0.84000 that there is a potential for ceasing of price from D point of this pattern. Stoch indicator in Daily time frame is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle warns about ascending of price during the next candles. According to the technical signs, there is no clear reason for descending of the price in daily time frame and Generally according to the formed signs in price chart until the bottom price of 0.84000 is preserved, price will have the potential for ascending and reformation.

    Technical Analysis of NZD/USD dated 2014.06.06

    [​IMG]
     
  4. MARKETWINNER

    MARKETWINNER

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    Just like dairy prices both NZD and AUD also will fall against USD in the coming months.

    Both AUD and NZD are more vulnerable to bad news. I don’ think that the carry trade position for European and Japanese investors will be attractive hereafter due to uncertainty situation, potential for depreciation of AUD and NZD and the slowing both Australia's terms of trade and commodity prices. Any speculative leaving in long positions could lead to free fall in AUD and NZD.Fed Stimulus Withdrawal policy will also hurt both New Zealand and Aussie Dollar.AB forecasts predict the Australian dollar at US87 ¢ for the end of September and US85 ¢ by end 2014.Three is a concern around the sustainability of Australia's triple-A credit rating. According to some analysts the Australian dollar would fall in line with the dip in the iron ore price to below $US100 a tonne. Consumer confidence is also not that good.

    My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
     
  5. MARKETWINNER

    MARKETWINNER

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  6. PipSafe

    PipSafe

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    NZD/USD was in a strong and consistent descending trend that sellers during this descending trend were successful in achieving the lowest price level of 0.76596.Currently in 1H time frame with formation of Morning star(with 2 stars) (the failure of sellers in reaching to the lower prices) price has been stopped from more descending and there is a possibility of formation of a bottom price and finally ascending of the price.

    As it is obvious in the picture below between the top price of 0.80323 and the bottom price of 0.76596, there is a none ideal AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 78.6 and 161.8 that with completion of the D point (also formation of other AB=CD (78.6=127.2) pattern in CD wave), there is a potential for ascending of price.Generally according to the current situation, until the bottom price of 0.76596 is preserved, there is the potential for ascending of price and reformation of descending trend.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. PipSafe

    PipSafe

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    NZD/USD since 11.07.2014 was in a strong and without reformation downtrend that shows the certainty of the sellers in achieving the predetermined goals. Sellers during this downtrend were successful in achieving the lowest price of 0.76056.Price during the Increase by reaching to the Down Trendline(made of 3 top prices)also the R1-WP has been stopped from more ascending and right now some of the buyers by reaching to these resistance levels started to cash their trades.

    According to the formed price movements in H4 time frame, there is a Bat harmonic pattern between the top price of 0.78701 and the recent ascending that by completing the D point of this pattern ,there is a warning about stopping of ascending of the price.Stoch indicator in 4H time frame is in saturation buy area and with the next cycle warns about descending of price during the next candles, but because of lack of coordination with the daily time frame is not much valid.Given the current situation of price, the best confirmations for ascending and reformation of price is the price should break Down Trendline and pass it.
     

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  8. PipSafe

    PipSafe

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    NZD/USD was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent Days that Sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 0.74000. price with reaching to the important round level of 0.74000 has stopped from more descend( Sellers used this level to exit their trades) and with formation of a bottom price in daily time frame has prepared a field for ascending of price.

    As it is obvious in the picture below, between the top price of 0.79735 and bottom price of 0.74000 there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ratios of 78.6 and 161.8 that warns the potential of ascending from the D point of this pattern.

    In Daily time frame Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle confirms the bottom price of 0.74000.Right Now the first warning for ascending is breaking of the resistance level of 0.74819.
     

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  9. PipSafe

    PipSafe

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    Technical analysis of NZD/USD dated 18.02.2015

    NZD/USD chart has experienced a strong ascending trend during the recent days that could record the top price of 0.75574.as it is obvious in the picture below , price has been stopped from more ascending with reaching to the Resistance level (S=R) and has formed a top price.

    According to the formed movements in the price chart, between the bottom price of 0.71769 and the top price of 0.75574 there is an AB=CD harmonic pattern with the ratios of 50 and 161.8 which the D point of this pattern is completed and warns about descending of the price in this price range.Stoch indicator in 4H time frame is in the saturation buy area and is in divergence mode with the price chart that warns about changing price direction.Right now the first important warning for more ascending of price in this currency pair happens by breaking f the 0.75574 level(D point) in H4 time frame.
     

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  10. Kylie9090

    Kylie9090

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    I still consider myself to be new to FOREX trading, so I’m still asking the green questions.
    I was waiting for the announcement this morning from the RBNZ via webcast at http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/videos/webcasts/
    . I had my finger on the trigger, waiting to see what he said. However, at least a couple minutes before the webcast kicked off, the NZD/USD dropped sharply. I’m trying to understand why this is the case. Off the top of my head I can think of three possibilities. I would be interested to hear what others think?

    1. Was the news leaked somewhere else before the webcast?
    2. Was the webcast not in real time as was suggested at the website?
    3. Or, did traders simply jump the gun and speculate early as to what the decision would be?
     
  11. daytradeprofit

    daytradeprofit

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    How High Can Kiwi Climb?

    ZD/USD suggest the bullish trend plus the pattern that appear in the charts
    Saucer Bottom trading :
    Reversal pattern that appear with a small bowl shape and it occurs with a bottom at its bowl works for long-term trading volume. This chart pattern matches defines a long-time consolidation time which executes from bearish to bullish conception. Basically, the rounding bottom is deliberated as a bullish signal that describes a reversal trading. The rounding bottoms look more alike the alphabet U and it is described as rounding turns, saucers and bowls. Consolidation will happen when it descents down during the bottom of series. The V-shaped chart pattern gives yielding returns and it remains reliable in bringing results
    unless breaking 0.6570 levels down will illuminate the scenario
    Resistance stay in 0.68 - 0.69 – 07 keeps the positive scenario valid and active From fresh 2015 lows, touched in Sept., the pair has managed to register a descent recovery level of its April to Sept. downfall. Hence, from current levels the pair seems more likely to continue with its near-term recovery trend towards an important resistance confluence.
    it is likely to extend its near-term upward trajectory immediately towards 0.6710-20 intermediate resistance before aiming towards 38.2% Fib. Retracement level resistance near 0.680o area. On the downside, 0.6570 seems to provide immediate support.
    Weakness below will cancel the scenario

    nzdusd.jpg
     
  12. ukulele

    ukulele

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    Pretty big gap on on the NZD central bank holding interest rates. On the daily the trend is strong perhaps the next resistance is the feb/mar spike lows around 0.717. Any other thoughts? I have a position open and I'm not sure where I want to target.
     
  13. CanOz

    CanOz Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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    7180 ish is the next resistance. I'd like to get onto a retest of the 'creek jump' sometime.
     
  14. ukulele

    ukulele

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    I had a buy stop in place prior to the release, I had my stop at the nearest swing low on the 5 minute chart. I adjusted my position size to risk 0.5%.

    Due to the creek jump I got filled but suddenly my risk was 1.7ish %... Which is way above my "rules". Coincidentally I took profits this morning as I agree, the gap will be filled, perhaps in the Euro hours.

    Interestingly though a better trade would have been the AUD/USD at the same time, very little gap being a much more liquid pair. Easy 3:1 achievable if you trade the 5 minute time frame.
     
  15. daytradeprofit

    daytradeprofit

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    NZDUSD.png NZD/USD is trading narrow range for a long time, it seems to be having trouble breaking long-term resistance at 0.7340


    Pay attention to the pattern – it could be that we see here gartley pattern' this the situation so we should expect to see lower number below the last lows, while break above 0.7340-0.7460 could take him to 0.79 area
    The NZD/USD might need to see further strength to move above the 0.7340-0.74400 resistance, which could indicate make new highs at 0.79 area; break below 0.6940+_ may expose what could be another step down below the previous lows key resistance area below the 0.6760 level
    One more thing:
    See the similar moves that happen in 1999
    break down0.6670-0.6780 will lead nzd to lower prices 0.61' and even lower to 0.53-0.59
     
  16. daytradeprofit

    daytradeprofit

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    Is the weakness of the New Zealand Dollar, is only the beginning of a long journey down to lower destinations
    ay attention to the pattern – it could be that we see here Gartley pattern' this the situation so we should expect to see lower number below the last lows, while anz.png break above 0.7340-0.7460 could take him to 0.79 area

    The NZD/USD might need to see further strength to move above the 0.7340-0.74400 resistance, which could indicate make new highs at 0.79 area; break below 0.6940+_ may expose what could be another step down below the previous lows key resistance area below the 0.6760 level
     
  17. Dutchy3

    Dutchy3

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    For those with W1 view of NZD/USD. D1 signalled last week for a potential wave 3 on a W1. Returns to .77500 late 2017 / early 2018

    upload_2017-9-10_16-32-20.png
     
  18. Mirus3000

    Mirus3000

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    I think now it is good time to take long 0.72165 . Stop-loss 0.72035 Profit target .72575
     
  19. cogs

    cogs

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    0.67820 - 0.6845 and slightly beyond.

    I am not offering professional trading advice, nor am I a financial advisor.
     

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