Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NZD/USD

Kauri

E/W Learner
Joined
Sep 3, 2005
Posts
3,428
Reactions
11
Travelling almost identically to the skippy but may have more movement potential after the FOMC.
Cheers
..........Kauri
 

Attachments

Kauri

E/W Learner
Joined
Sep 3, 2005
Posts
3,428
Reactions
11
Re: NZDUSD..Kiwi

Am having a little run out of the triangle from W4.. probably another lot of strong option defence at 78???
Cheers
............Kauri
 

Attachments

Kauri

E/W Learner
Joined
Sep 3, 2005
Posts
3,428
Reactions
11
Re: NZDUSD..Kiwi

Ambling along nicely on the back of the skippy..
Cheers
...........Kauri
 

Attachments

Kauri

E/W Learner
Joined
Sep 3, 2005
Posts
3,428
Reactions
11
Re: NZDUSD..Kiwi

May just be my imagination but there seems to be a determined effort to keep the Kiwi under 7850... might be an option block lurking around there??
Cheers
.........Kauri
 

Attachments

Kauri

E/W Learner
Joined
Sep 3, 2005
Posts
3,428
Reactions
11
Re: NZDUSD..Kiwi

Stops now in close... reasons as per the skippy trade..
Cheers
.........Kauri
 

Attachments

Kauri

E/W Learner
Joined
Sep 3, 2005
Posts
3,428
Reactions
11
Re: NZDUSD..Kiwi

I don't go much past the basic E/W stage... yet... sose I'm not sure if this is what is called an ending diagonal???.. but it (the daily) looks interesting..
Cheers
.........Kauri
 

Attachments

Joined
Feb 13, 2012
Posts
31
Reactions
0
The kiwi at the end gave a kiss to the TL, and there seems to bounce, perhaps most advisable is to wait until Monday for confirmation, but may be the beginning of a good upward bounce.
 

Attachments

Joined
Feb 13, 2012
Posts
31
Reactions
0
The kiwi at the end gave a kiss to the TL, and there seems to bounce, perhaps most advisable is to wait until Monday for confirmation, but may be the beginning of a good upward bounce.
:(, We consider the TL is broken, time to stay waiting.
 
Joined
Feb 12, 2012
Posts
410
Reactions
28
According to following links NZD can go down further. Suddenly some analysts including bank economists also have become bearish on NZD. As I said before NZD dollar has entered amulti-year bear cycle and the dollar (USD) has entered a multi-year bull cycle.However there can be dead cat bounce for NZD time to time. Intermediate trend for NZD is down now.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10889664

Skids go under kiwi dollar - may fall further

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=16aa07b5-7502-4020-9101-91395e7ab788

NZD/USD continues bear trend

My ideas are not a recommendation to eitherbuy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior tomaking any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.
 
Joined
Feb 12, 2012
Posts
410
Reactions
28
I believe NZ dollar will go down sharply due to new development. It is overpriced by 45% against USD. During last couple of years it has appreciated by more than 50% against some Asian currencies. Now this cycle has reversed and NZD will go down not only against USD but also against some Asian currencies. I cannot understand reason behind appreciation of NZD. May be some carry traders including speculators must have parked their money in NZD. Now one by one currency players are unwinding their positions in both AUD and NZD.When everybody tries to take out of money from both AUD and NZD these currencies can tumble to the one of the lowest levels.

Now analysts including global banking analysts are revising their year end target and target in 2014 for NZD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...finds-its-mark-as-kiwi-slumps-currencies.html

Wheeler’s Peashooter Finds Its Mark as Kiwi Slumps: Currencies

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.
.
 
Joined
Feb 12, 2012
Posts
410
Reactions
28
Both NZD and AUD went up in value during the past four years due to hot overseas money. Now this money is flooding out of these countries. That so called carry trade has ended now. Since these countries floated their dollars, Australia and New Zealand have become favourite hot place for worldwide speculative money trading.

Speculative money flows are short term, and will flee at the sight of trouble. There is a regime shift now. AUSTRALIAN bond futures are weaker as hedge funds reacted to the situation.

There are some benefits in lower NZ dollar and Australian dollar

1. Rising import cost will bring some relief for New Zealand and Australian -based manufacturers.
2. Export sector will expand. A lower dollar makes export prices more attractive for overseas buyers, boosting our domestic output.
3. New Zealand and Australian companies with significant overseas operations also will benefit because the lower dollar boosts the repatriated profit of companies with overseas operations.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
 
Joined
Feb 12, 2012
Posts
410
Reactions
28
There is a regime shift in the currency market globally. As a result of this over valued currencies such as NZD and AUD will go down further in the coming quarters while having rebound and volatility time to time. In addition no economy will stay strong for ever. There will be slow growth in some period. Currencies will adjust accordingly. In some period some countries will have strong growth and in some other period some other countries will have strong growth. In addition time to time hot money will rotate one currency to another.

In short mid term and long term trend is down for both NZD and AUD.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323854904578637040713825314.html

New Zealand Dollar Dragged down by Weaker Australian Dollar

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.
 
Joined
Feb 12, 2012
Posts
410
Reactions
28
In the short run NZD can appreciate against AUD while having some volatility.
However both AUD and NZD will continually go down against USD while having small rebound and volatility time to time.

In the past NZD has traded as low as 0.39 against USD. In the recent past NZD traded around 0.80 against USD. Now it is trading around 0.78 against USD. Now the currency cycle has changed and over valued currencies will go down gradually.

When AUD go down against USD, NZD too will go down against USD in the same manner. We can also see falling interest rate in Australia and New Zealand too will follow their cousin sooner than later just like in Europe and USA in the past.

In short still we have not seen biggest drop in NZD against USD.

I believe after bitcoin and gold both NZD and AUD can go down dramatically.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions
 
Joined
Feb 12, 2012
Posts
410
Reactions
28
I believe there will be some short term support for both AUD and NZD due to new development. Even emerging currencies such as Indian rupee and few Asian currencies can go up in the short run.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
 
Joined
Feb 12, 2012
Posts
410
Reactions
28
I believe among currencies NZD has more potential to fall against basket of currencies in the coming months. The kiwi mat stay under pressure in the coming years as well. So far NZD dollar was resilient and this situation may change sooner than later. Arguably one of the overpriced currencies in the world. If we compare with basket of currencies during last 10 years it is at the top of the chart.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
 
Joined
Feb 21, 2014
Posts
167
Reactions
0
Re: NZDUSD..Kiwi

NZD/USD in recent weeks, has been experienced many reformation with a gradual upward trend that Buyers over price increases obtained the highest price of 0.85213.Currently price in long term time frames(Such as Monthly,weekly and Daily ) is above 5-day moving average and warns about more ascending in long term interval of this currency pair.Price has been stopped from more ascend by reaching to the specified resistance levels in the picture below and with exit of some buyers from their trades at the end of 7th ,10th and 11th days, the Doji , Spining Top and Shooting Star candlestick patterns have been created. These candles shows vulnerability and indecision market in ascending or descending of price that for confirmation it needs closing of a bearish candle
As it is obvious in the picture below , right now in daily time frame ABC descending pattern with the ratio of 161.8 is observable that with the completion of the D point there is a warning about down of price and descend by this pattern.The Stoch indicator is in the saturation buy area and issued the warning of the formation of top price and the falling of the price.Generally until the top price of 0.85213 is preserved, there is a potential for descending and price reformation in this currency pair.
 
Top