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NVN - Novion Property Group

Discussion in 'Stocks I-P' started by robots, Jul 17, 2007.

  1. robots

    robots hello

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    hello,

    anybody taking up the offer of 2.15/share

    bit of a discount to market price of around 2.22/share

    have a nice day

    thankyou

    robots
     
  2. brianwh

    brianwh

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    I am currently reading over CFX's Unit Purchase Plan (UPP) in which they are offering current Unitholders the opportunity to buy shares up to a value of $15000 at $1.86 per share - but the price in the market on Friday was about $1.81!!!! Am I missing something?
     
  3. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    The share price has fallen a bit since the plan was announced. You can always elect not to purchase new units. Especially if you think buying something worth $1.80 for $1.86 is not particularly attractive ;)
     
  4. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    Got down to $1.78 today :) probably fair to say the UPP wasn't discounted enough, ive seen this happen quite a few times over the last 3 years with other stocks, over the longer term it usually doesn't mean much...if i can exit one of my open trades this week CFX looks very tempting at under $1.80 :2twocents and i would like a retail focused real estate stock.
     
  5. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    Pretty sharp falls on CFX since the interest rate rise. But instos selling out retail trusts to buy into the new Westfield Retail Trust might also contribute.

    Probably hasn't change that much fundamentally.
     
  6. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    Into CFX today at $1.77 ~ i needed some retail therapy :D ive recycled my CTN money with a little extra into this, my first proper Retail property stock....buying in at under the cap raising is always a plus especially in a stock with such manageable debt and a general lack of any issues, with a dividend coming up and guidance confirmed today at around 12.5 cents per share, CFX seems to me to be a total no brainer.
     
  7. brty

    brty

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    Mr Cynical,

    I think you are stalking my watch list. This is a buy for me if it gets down to ~$1.70 and meanders to there from here.

    brty
     
  8. Tukker

    Tukker

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    Posted in 2007

    Posted in 2010 :)

    Interesting to see the turnout of this. I too believe the share is approaching fair/discounted value, but do not believe a technical low has been formed as yet. Will post chart when i return home.
     
  9. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    I have to admit that i am consistently a little early in my entry's....sometimes way to early. :dunno: interesting to see the property sector hold up well today with only small falls in general.
     
  10. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    As the chart shows below...it was a total no brainer, CFX became my 45th winning trade today 11 weeks after entry and about 5 weeks after the dividend date, total profit including dividend was 15.4 CPS (about 8%) keen to re-enter and build my position and free carry the next time CFX has a dip.

    $1.74 looks to have been the bottom.

    Not sure if it was a technical low...but i do know it was low enough for me.
    ~
     

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  11. brty

    brty

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    Good trade, well done. As you noted I was obviously waiting a little longer and missed the opportunity. It is all I can do to wait for my setups.

    I'm curious to know why you exited where you did, as I would be looking for some resistance at ~$1.92-4?? and looking at that point as a potential exit.

    Looking at your win rate over the last few years ~80% with a good risk reward ratio, is impressive. I have a similar ratio but also a column of "scrub trades", those that I exit after time stop for no real loss or gain. I've been told by some that an 80% win rate is not possible, I thought you were stalking my watchlist, obviously we use a similar system.

    brty
     
  12. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    I exited because i have 8 open trades and over the last 10 months ive had opportunity's to exit 4 of those trades with profits of 12% or more...i didn't exit them as i was trialling "letting my winners run" :rolleyes: and thus watched my winners head back down to the bottom of there trading range/s...now im back to my old exit strategy of taking 8 to 10% profit and leaving that in and turning the rest of my capital over.

    The guts of my wealth building strategy is re-cycling of capital..statistically a big part of my success is reliant on averaging a trade conclusion every 25 days...and my last exit was HHL on 19 Jan so needed to keep things moving, besides i have a target in mind and bottoms don't last for ever.

    At some point in time CFX will get back to the top of its range ($1.92-4) and with a bit of luck come back down to the bottom of that range so i can buy in again and build my position...im building a dividend stream by leaving my profits in and re-cycling my capital.
     
  13. poverty

    poverty

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    Have you considered impementing a trailing stop on your winners once they reach a certain point?
     
  14. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    Yes i have...and at this point in time i don't use stops...reasoning is thus.

    I'm not in a stock for the "trade" there is no room in my strategy for getting stopped out at any price point under where i want to sell (thou have done so out of pure frustration)...so having said that i probably could consider placing a stop at the 8% profit point, but to realistically do that the stock would have to already be at 10% profit and i would be happy to sell there anyway.

    I really really have no interest at all in trend following.
     
  15. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    ^ I wish i could make 700 > 1000 bucks every time i called a stock price cycle with near perfection....oh that's right i do. :D

    Back in today at 1.78 dividend in about 7 weeks and ill be out again on the other side for another easy 700 > 1000 bucks. :rolleyes:
    ~
     

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  16. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    Well i only made $300 bucks this time :rolleyes: of course i was right again :) and have thus completed trade number 63 today and in doing so have increased my winners to 52, i haven't checked the expectancy as i doubt its changed with such a small winner.

    Statistically i needed to complete a trade and CFX was the stock that hit the magic (exit) number today $1.865 ~ i sold 90% of my latest parcel, lifting my free-carry % slightly and increasing my CPS slightly...happy to keep building my position in CFX, buying on the dips, leaving my profits in, increasing my free-carry and building my revenue stream.
     
  17. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    I completely sold out today at $1.81 for a little over a 1% profit (average) on the 3 parcels i hold, and about 6.5% in distributions over the 22 months i have held the original parcel for...over all any winner is a good winner. :)

    I'm nowhere near as keen as i was on retail property and keen to move on plus trusts are a pain in the ass come tax time.
     
  18. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust

    CFX hasn't tracked all that well over the last 12 months (unlike other reit's like cpa and dxs to name a couple). While the volitility has created opportunities for the odd trade, imo it hasn't had the same good paterns for swing trading as the other reit's. There are better opportunities and returns on others.

    I try not to buy and hold for long periods unless the dividends and franking outweigh any capital retraces (although I have been caught with a couple) .

    Your stats are still looking good.
     
  19. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

    It appears that cfx has taken a hit in the fall out of the American election. It is possible that some overseas investors have taken advantage of the improved Aud$ against the US$ to take their profits and take their money home to ride out their own storms (no pun intended). It will be interesting to see whether the previous support levels hold and cfx rebounds from here or whether lower support levels are tested.

    cfx 2012-11-08.png

    Not-with-standing, cfx is sneaking up to a good dividend (ex-div pre xmas) payable in February 2013 and the div at these price levels pushes the annualised yield into the 6.5% arena. IMO the sell down is a little over the top. But then, what would I know? :). As always do your own research and good luck.
     
  20. starman45

    starman45

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    Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group

    Resistance in area 2 is very strong

    cfx.png
     

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