Ken are you stalking my portfolio????? try this link and I know its a long listen but it gives you a good cross section of where they are coming from and going too..........I normally click windows media symbol top r/hand corner......Ken said:nufarm have come up on the radar.
recommendation as a buy on westpac broking.
It seems undervalued.
Would people be steering clear of nufarm due to weather conditions?
intrinsic valuation is $11.50
Yeah, I've been chatting to someone privately here about NUF. Services to agriculture are probably a good place to be. Aren't too many though. IPL is the other that I am in.Today I bought 20l of Roundup. The price has gone up 50%+ since I bought the last pack. Accompaning the pack was a leaflet explaining the price rise. The reason was a shortage of product because of excessive demand. Now the cost of production and distribution hasn't gone up 50% so the profit margin must be much higher than before. Add this to the easing of the drought in the cropping areas and Nufarm must be heading for a bumper year.
Old bad news, on the 17/6 - downgraded its earnings guidance for 2008-09. It cut its forecast by 15 per cent to a net operating profit of $A187 million. It blamed the downgrade on a fall in glyphosate sales. The company has just raised $A300 million in capital.Just wondering anyone knows why NUF falls today? I am tempted but would like to know whether there is any change of conditions.
Thanks Haunting, I also just saw the news that Credit Suisse downgrades the stock to underperform, and profit forecast to below NUF's management guidance citing deterioration in outlook for glyphosate which is 35% of sales for NUF business.Old bad news, on the 17/6 - downgraded its earnings guidance for 2008-09. It cut its forecast by 15 per cent to a net operating profit of $A187 million. It blamed the downgrade on a fall in glyphosate sales. The company has just raised $A300 million in capital.
The cap raising was at $11.25 per share closing date 23/6, which probably explains why the dump today.
The good news is at the current price, the stock is quite oversold, I am expecting a bounce from this level (if lower @9.00), soon.
Can you summarize the previous Chinese bid for Nufarm? Who was the buyer, and what was the price? When was the offer made, and what broke that deal up ultimately?Of course this didn't come entirely out of the blue - the Chinese had tried before and to a lot of investors it was only a matter of when they would try again.
A combination of a depressed market, a profit downgrade from NUF and subsequent drop in the SP were all the ingredients needed to re-ignite a bid.
I bought a few today because I reckon NUF is a well run company with a good business and prospects. At $10-$11 I'll be happy to hold, whether or not this situation develops into an actual offer.
So based on that history, the bad credit markets, and the improbability of getting any competitive bidding started, I guess we should not hope for more than a AUD $14 to $16 bid?Have a look back in this thread, particularly the links to news items provided in posts 4 and 5.