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NTD - National Tyre & Wheel

galumay

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A positive update to guidance following the last 4 months trading, seems like the acquisition is already bedding down well & adding value.
Remains to be seen how well the new business performs post covid, its priced now as if the present is the new normal, like so many other beneficiaries of the pandemic.

I won't be adding at current prices but may look to increase position size on any decent dips.
 
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Don't have much to add..... Happy with the trading update of course, looks like it is going well. Will be waiting for the half yearly to have a closer look at how things are going. Management have indicated that they prefer to hold cash / pay down debt which I am also happy with. Still a happy holder.
 

galumay

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Yes, @Jackass, I noticed that bit about considering future divvies in the light of debt levels - something I wish more companies considered.
 
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Nice announcement made after cob on Friday arvo.

I don't want to speak too soon, but I the board appears honest and straight to the point, I think I'll be a long term holder.
 

galumay

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I don't want to speak too soon, but I the board appears honest and straight to the point, I think I'll be a long term holder.

Yes they seem so, I have been impressed with their communications since I took a position last year. Of course its never going to be an exciting business of have massive growth, but owning these little companies that operate in boring and overlooked sectors can be very rewarding.
 
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Yep very good announcement on Friday. Some quick and dirty back of the envelope number crunching suggests that even after the massive run up in the share price, these are not exactly expensive.

With the caveat from the latest announcement about the uncertain business environment noted, I make these to be trading on an annual EV/EBITDA multiple of ~ 4.6 at a share price of $1.05 which is hardly demanding.

Looking at the cash that they have managed to accumulate in the 4 months since the T4U buy, they have managed to accumulate ~ 10.8 mill. Annualising this gives a P/CF multiple of 3.7, once again hardly demanding.

As others have noted management seems to be honest and competent. However for me the question is what do they do with this cash, as the high Aussie $ and low interest rate tail winds may change very quickly. For me I would prefer to see them pay down Debt very aggressively, or at the very least hold the cash and get into a net cash position as quickly as possible.

That said, I still hold these and do like them. They just have to keep doing what they are doing for this to be a good investment. No massive growth assumptions needed.
 

galumay

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@Jackass management have stated an intention to pay down the debt quickly, its definitely a test of their capital allocation. I will be watching for execution in the HY report, until then I will continue to hold. Its now a double bagger for me in under 6 months which is pretty crazy for a tyre seller!
 

galumay

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A trading update released late yesterday has NTD guiding for a better than previously expected H2 2021, they are indicating basic EPS this year of 17c. Management appear to be consistently under promising and over delivering - a hallmark of some of the better businesses I have owned.
 

galumay

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NTD popped by up to 15% today on no news, its pretty tightly held so investors probably have to just pay up if they want to take a position. Obviously something has stirred some interest!
 

galumay

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As expected, a very strong FY 2021 for NTD, this has been a great investment for me. 8c divvy this year is about a 15% return on my cost price 1 year ago! Up 140%.

Screen Shot 2021-08-31 at 8.26.55 am.png
 
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