Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Not Buying - Not Selling - Waiting

wayneL

Trading the Apocalypse
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Recession ?

The only recession I can remember is a Recession I didn't even feel

Even the last 2 Recessions felt the same to me

"Much to do about Nothing"
I say!

They all passed over and I did not even know that they had passed overhead

I would appreciate if somebody here will notify me when we hit the next recession
I would love to know what it feels like

I seriously think I am immune to recession

Trust me!

Every time I ever heard of Recession is when it had already Passed overheard
IE: This is The Perfect Buy Signal IMHO View attachment 142517
It depends on the industry you're in. My industry also barely feels a recession.

My father used to be very affected in his industry of furniture manufacturing. He could call it (and the recovery) well before almost everyone else, simple by his sales trends. It's seems that (back then anyway) furniture was one of the first things people stopped buying, or at least started choosing less expensive fabrics.

But also one of the first industries where you noticed people starting to lash out again.

My clients generally don't give a @#$&, they're going to keep their nags going no matter what.
 
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I only felt the Interest Rate rise hurting when it rose to 13.5% -17.0%
starting in the mid - 80's >

Not many marriages survived in those days
Just watch the price of houses drop over the next 6 months

Sorry for the history lesson but that is why keeping INFLATION down is ALL OMNIPOTENT
XYZ Yacht.GIF
 
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Obviously affecting the value of stocks thou...
will be making those with heavy margin loans be more cautious so far , margin loans can be great in a bull market ( i do not have a margin loan ) but the wiser ones will be locking in profits ( and reducing the loans )

arguably just what the market needed .. a reality check ( a bit late , but better late than never )
 
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Well the COVID-recession wasn't truly a recession as we had unfathomable amounts of income support and welfare available. If we truly do head into a recession, this may be Australia's first one in a while. Not too sure if I'd want that.
depends on what YOU call recession ( the definition has been mangled over the years )

i call a recession as a fall in productivity GAINS over two consecutive quarters say starting the sequence at 2% rise in the previous quarter then 1.8% rise , followed be a 1.75% rise , and then maybe a return to 2% rise .. under that definition 'recessions ' are fairly common but still uncomfortable ( especially to the over-leveraged )

a bit like retraces in the stock-market .. unpleasant reality-checks but not a disaster if you are sensible

what you are really fearing is the 'D' word ( depression ) were the productivity actually contracts say from 2% rise to a 1% FALL , then a 1.5% FALL after that and they tend to become a downward spiral ( sometimes for a decade or more ) since our economies are basically like a shark and NEED to keep going forward , this really messes up a modern economy , often causing civil unrest and widespread poverty ( like seems to be happening in Sri Lanka)

now of course in modern times even 'productivity ' is a mangled definition ( and can mean 'free money' pumped into the system despite less work done )

the problem is the world ( well the developed part ) might NEED that reality check whether we like it or not ... most major civilizations suffer a collapse over time for the same reason , this time the trend towards globalization , means the collapse might be ( nearly ) global ( say the highlands of PNG might not even hear about it let alone feel it )

cheers
 
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neither I

don’t you mean Would have? Bit late now after the horse has bolted
that depends SOME stocks could have been bought in the last few months and still be in a useful profit

and depending when bought some stocks are still multi-baggers from say 2011 to 2015

the market might be lower from the peak but a few are still near their highs

GRR , BPT and STO as examples

and of course some would be tax-loss selling as is the normal strategy this month ( for some )
 
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neither I

don’t you mean Would have? Bit late now after the horse has bolted
i also implied the bigger money would be doing so slowly so as not spook the market , so maybe they have reduced but waiting for a bounce to sell into
 
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Tough times for us all. The future?
Will petrol get any cheaper? Will electricity get any cheaper? Or groceries?
And, have a look at the LT charts of CBA and MQG. These people aren't silly.

Defensive positioning to me means ..pay me a regular dividend or distribution, and I might think about buying your shares.
 
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Tough times for us all. The future?
Will petrol get any cheaper? Will electricity get any cheaper? Or groceries?
And, have a look at the LT charts of CBA and MQG. These people aren't silly.

Defensive positioning to me means ..pay me a regular dividend or distribution, and I might think about buying your shares.
Good luck on realizing any beneficial Dividend Benefit in these days
But IMHO
This Market is not for Little Old Ladies who shop at Myers and /or David Jones living on Dividends

This time is NOW for Serious Traders!
Some Shares are going UP >5% / week and others MUCH MUCH MORE

This is what we at Sea live for!
XYZ Yacht.GIF
 

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel
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Good luck on realizing any beneficial Dividend Benefit in these days
But IMHO
This Market is not for Little Old Ladies who shop at Myers and /or David Jones living on Dividends

This time is NOW for Serious Traders!
Some Shares are going UP >5% / week and others MUCH MUCH MORE

This is what we at Sea live for!
View attachment 143314
monkey dart.jpeg

gg
 
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The activity in the last couple of weeks is buying VAS & VGS. Haven't even bothered with the market otherwise. My funds are now directed in to these two ETFs. The LICs I hold can do their respective thing as I feel they are a pretty good backstop when/if distributions from the ETFs drop.

No chasing, no trying to get an edge (the big whales have got there well before the mere thought of the possibility had even yet begun to cross your mind) simply continually building up the holdings and reaping any distributions. Happy to be average and receive the market return less a relatively small fee.
 

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel
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It looks to me as if the margin loans are being called in both here and overseas on stocks and btc.

All the crap has been sold by these margin loan holders.

As the market falls or threatens to they will become sellers of more high quality holdings. The price of the latter will fall.

As for a bear market, it depends on what you call a bear market.

The Garpal Gumnut Bear Market ( GGBM ) has not yet occurred, so do not fret.

I am back to just watching and lining up Russian tanks and observing from drones Heroes of Russia at toilet on twitter being grenaded. Once all the kerfuffle in Ukraine looks to be settling, then may be the time to buy.

Then again we have the MAGA's in the USA and the millions and millions of cousins in Beijing.

I don't necessarily enjoy interesting times, but then again I don't necessarily not.

gg
 
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I don't necessarily enjoy interesting times, but then again I don't necessarily not.

With the little market spurtr recently, I was thinking that maybe my 3 to 6 month outlook could be shortened to 1 to 3 months.
Nah, will leave it at the former.
Just the cat bouncing off a balcony on the way down..🤪
 
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