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MP1 - Megaport Limited

Dona Ferentes

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And we wish to thank motley fool for this succinct and value adding information.

Citi’s price target – which is where it thinks the share price will be in 12 months – is $12.30, which would be a rise of around 120%.

The UBS price target is $19.70. It likes the longer-term outlook, including the tailwind of more businesses going online with their computing infrastructure.

Morgans has a price target of $10.65, which implies a rise of around 90%, though the actual rating was hold.

Ord Minnett thinks the business is close to fair value, with a price target of $5.50. It thinks the business needs to focus on revenue growth and costs.
 

bk1

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Some of those targets are truly heroic, i wonder how much stock they have collectively on their books.

The 200 day MA is at $14....
 

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MP1 seems to be in thrall of large holders, the insto's, trading in and out. They all seem to be having a go. The last 3 months have been very active, with big volumes going through;
  • Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, (MUFJ)
  • State Street
  • UBS
  • Citi
Now if the tax year has ended and they have rotated /juggled losses, etc; maybe things will settle down. And maybe a corporate action emerges.

Now $5.60, low for the year has been at $4.70

Unlikely any of these instos are betting on MP1 tho right? It's just custody for hedge fund accounts they are Prime Brokers for.
 
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Excellent day for holders today. XRO was well up too, NAN more so, PME not so much.
MP1 does seem to be 'constructing' well for a potential significant low. I like the way it shot up +20% over just two days with high volume in June. Then it pulled back with a brace of small candles on low volume and followed with higher volume break to a fresh peak today. Best fit downtrend line up around $8 but will get lower with time. Too expensive for me to risk in this climate.

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Daily
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Dona Ferentes

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Smoke and fire.

Megaport is shoring up its takeover defences, recognising that a bombed out share price could leave it vulnerable to an opportunistic move...

Bank of America has been appointed house adviser to telco infrastructure group Megaport.

Sources close to the talks said Megaport’s board had mandated Bank of America to shore up its defences, recognising that a 66 per cent year-to-date share price fall may leave it vulnerable to an opportunistic bid.

Bank of America’s role is expected to include
  • keeping an eye on Megaport’s share register (those pesky hedge funds/ short sellers)
  • working on defence tactics should a suitor emerge
  • considering other near and medium term strategies to create value for shareholders.
Private equity firms, infrastructure funds and global trade players continue to scour Australia’s technology sector for potential acquisitions, trying to make the most of falling listed market valuations.
 

Dona Ferentes

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Quarterly out:

Total revenue for the quarter was $30.6M, up 10% compared to 3Q FY22. Annualised recurring revenue at 30 June 2022 was $128M.

Megaport delivered EBITDA profit for 4Q FY22 as a whole, a first for the Company. During the quarter two new markets, Canada and Japan, became individually profitable ahead of schedule, contributing to the Group EBITDA performance.

During the quarter ended 30 June 2022, Megaport sold 1,447 new services, up 6% QoQ for total services of 27,383. Net new ports increased by 533, an increase of 6% to 9,545. Strong port sales combined with a 7% increase in average revenue per port to $1,120 per month supported record MRR growth in the quarter.

Cash of $82 million at EoQ.

... After touching $7, sold off 6% yesterday, to $6.47. Tussle of the hedge funds?
 

Dona Ferentes

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EBITDA of $1 million in Q4 for the first time, thanks to two new markets, Canada and Japan, becoming profitable and ahead of schedule.

Of course, to get there, need to take out
  • equity–settled employee related costs,
  • foreign exchange gains and losses on disposal of property, plant and equipment, and
  • other non-recurring expenses.
Charlie Munger?
 

rnr

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MP1 re ASF 2022-07-20 .png


Just thought I would take the opportunity to throw up a daily chart of MP1 for anyone interested.

The green zigzag line maybe an A-B-C correction which bottomed out in late June.
(Perhaps @Porper may confirm my assumption?)

I also wouldn't be surprised if @peter2 has been keeping an eye on MP1

Cheers, Rob
 
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MP1 - never heard of it.
That B wave is too flat for a classic ABC correction. It is a strong down trend though from $22 to $5. Wow. Price has gone down so much that I'd have to be "bonkers" to even select it for a monthly comp.

I was impressed to read that MP1 is actually making a profit. That's rare in the tech sector.

The daily chart does show the 123 Low pattern but then so has a hundred others in the ASX recently.
 

Porper

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View attachment 144328

Just thought I would take the opportunity to throw up a daily chart of MP1 for anyone interested.

The green zigzag line maybe an A-B-C correction which bottomed out in late June.
(Perhaps @Porper may confirm my assumption?)

I also wouldn't be surprised if @peter2 has been keeping an eye on MP1

Cheers, Rob
The positives Rob:

It's declined around 78.6% of the prior leg, used by many Elliott analysts. I prefer 61.8% but that's just me. It's also hit a zone of support and reversed. Plus, there is a volume bubble around the lows implying the big boys may be taking an interest.. The confluence is good. How many times do you see major highs and lows coincide with volume bubbles...a lot.

Negatives:

The bounce in Feb isn't sufficient to call it a symmetrical 3-wave move. It looks too impulsive. it may need to come back a bit after today's weak close as well. All in all, looks good for a decent rally over the coming weeks at least i.m.o.

A lot of stocks have hit Fibonacci targets and reversed hard recently...or bounced from zones of support. Maybe MP1 is in that basket.
 
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From James Gerrish's 'Market Matters'
"MM feels that the recent outperformance by tech stocks is reaching maturity"
They have trimmed their XRO holding.
Suggest that MP1 rally is now flagging. Can't say I'd dare to say that yet from my neanderthal view of the chart - however, I guess it did get up to overbought on the daily and there is a big unfilled gap below.
Hints at the chance that the ASX200 might test 2022 lows or maybe specific tech sector weakness and would like MP1, WTC, TNE on significant pullbacks.

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Dona Ferentes

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Megaport annual report out. I found the description of what it actually does to be much clearer, and activities plus risks are summarised well.

Company is growing at a fair clip but still losing money, though at a lower rate.

The DCF and other pricers will make their judgements, as will the short-sellers and traders; looking to open a bit higher.
 
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S.P at $6.95
Spiked a bit after the annual report. Quite bit , in fact .Almost $9 , but now resuming its slow decline.
At $ 5 , I'll have to get my thinking cap on and have another read of that annual report.....it's bad, but not all that bad. They're siting on $ 80 million in the bank, too.
All very tempting, but I'll watch for the brave ones here, to jump first.
 
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Argo's annual report meeting of last month ,mentions the fund manager taking a stake in Megaport , during the year.
Could be something else, to keep in mind.
Must be other smart minds at work on MG1, one would have to assume.
 
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