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MGR - Mirvac Group

Discussion in 'Stocks I-P' started by markrmau, May 3, 2005.

sentifi.com

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  1. markrmau

    markrmau

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    "MGR's current FY06e yield of 8.2% represents a 80bpt premium to the LPT sector average and a 100bpt premium to Stockland (SGP.AX, 1L, $5.77). In our view only a 50bpt premium over SGP is warranted. The time to buy MGR is NOW."

    April 27, 2005...

    However, they have been quite good overall - NCM - sell ORI - sell WYL -sell, all well before the big SP drops.
     
  2. Investor

    Investor

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    Re: SmithBarney on MGR

    In another thread on profit downgrades, I had already posted earlier today that MGR (Mirvac) announced a profit downgrade today and the price fell 11.6% today.
     
  3. markrmau

    markrmau

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    Re: SmithBarney on MGR

    My post wasn't very clear. Up until now, I had been impressed with SB as they had called a sell against the mainstream consensus - ncm, ori, wyl - and they turned out to be correct.

    However they got mgr wrong.

    I note that SB and jp morgan say that while they got it wrong, the worst has come out and it is still a buy.

    SB also notes that the appartment starts which walloped the market yesterday is a volatile figure.

    Anyway, just some extra info. I don't own any of these companies (or FWD for that matter)
     
  4. markrmau

    markrmau

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    Re: SmithBarney on MGR

    Gee MGR is down heavily at the moment as well.

    I haven't seen a blow like that since Divine Brown walked up to Hugh Grant's car.
     
  5. sam76

    sam76

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    Re: SmithBarney on MGR

    I just spat my lunch all over my keyboard after reading that last post - very funny! :D :D
     
  6. GreatPig

    GreatPig Pigs In Space

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    MGR - Mirvac

    A rising triangle here. I wonder if the current movement will push through the top shortly.

    Cheers,
    GP
     

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  7. GreatPig

    GreatPig Pigs In Space

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    Re: MGR - Mirvac

    Yup.

    Bought some this morning.

    Cheers,
    GP
     

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  8. Lachlan6

    Lachlan6

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    OK my first crack at posting a chart. I am such an amateur when it comes to computers. Shorted (MGR) today CFD's as broken through strong support and 200 day EMA. Notice its lowsy short term rallies in April and May all ended at 50% fibonacci. Tried to include 15 day EMA but couldnt put on chart. Anyway this is more to see if it all will work. Cheers.
     

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  9. prana

    prana

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    My fingers are getting itchy. MGR is now trading below 2001 prices before the great asset bubble boom begun. In fact, the earnings strength is still quite good, despite the forecast/divi slump - cutting divs is important and smart in my opinion. Home prices have dropped, and activity slowed, but this sort of slump is pricing in American style 50% drop in asset values and prolonged crisis. Even if Aussie housing was to drop 30% now, it would still be relatively cheap.

    This cyclical is starting to look oversold to me. Any opinions or have I missed a bit of crucial news about the fundamentals of the business itself being completely FUBAR'd? Happy to stand corrected for some greater wisdom.

    ps. I have no current interest, though I am interested :D
     
  10. Bushman

    Bushman

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    Spot on IMO. NTA is $3.95 after the current valuation process. Distributions have been slashed to 20 cps from 32 cps ie a 37.5% decrease in distributions. Gearing is a slow 33%.

    Where is the risk left? Earnings - no. Valuations - err NTA is $3.95 so these will need to be hammered. No reason for that to happen.

    Aussie residential will NOT decrease by 30 to 50%. We are forecasting net immigration inflows of 200,000 odd in the next year for gawds sake. Where will they live?
     
  11. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    LOL..prana

    Mirvac was over sold 2 weeks ago @ $1.85...how were your fingers feeling then?

    Mirvac has some great property's and good businesses..if u believe that property here
    wont be hit hard, or as hard as the US and Euro...then MGR look like great value.

    MGR has certainly bounced well off the $1.85 of a couple of weeks ago.
     

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  12. tm1234

    tm1234

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    im an amateur, could anybody give me any reasoning for the steep decline in MGR's sp over the past week or so
     
  13. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    Ill have a go

    • 1 Mirvac was one of the first fund managers to freeze redemption's a couple
      of months ago, and now the rest of the industry is following suit and the whole
      sector is taking a share price hit.

    • 2 Mirvac have a lot of debt

    • 3 Mirvac have alot of property

    • 4 Mirvac manage alot of hotels

    All negatives.
     
  14. saiter

    saiter

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    well MGR seems to doing really nicely if you've been trading it on an intraday basis... I see support at $0.97 and resistance at $1.80. I'm too afraid to enter though, my broker doesn't offer stop losses :(
     
  15. esolano

    esolano

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    First time poster guys. Also nube... so please be kind.
    Any thought on this. I know how the property market's been doing but is it good value at 1.09 for long term?
     
  16. esolano

    esolano

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    a nice little rally for this in the last hour of trading... :)
    I'm starting to think no news is good news for stocks.
     
  17. zzaaxxss3401

    zzaaxxss3401

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    Disclosure: current holder of MGR.

    Just interested in thoughts about the SPP announced at $1.40 recently. It's only a 5% discount at the time of the announcement. So assuming you purchased 1000 @ $1.40 you'd be up for $1400. However, the current share price is already $1.40 (today) and if it dips 2c before the closing date of 6th May 2010 (highly likely), it would be cheaper to buy those shares on (say) Commsec (with a $20 trade cost).

    If you are intending to buy more (say 2000), the price only has to drop another 1c to be the same price.

    Am I missing something, or is it going to be less effort to just set a "buy" on Commsec and guarantee the number of shares I might want - rather than filling out the SPP form? :confused:
     
  18. mellifuous

    mellifuous

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    Hi, is there a thread for investors in the Mirvac Aqua HIF ?

    I've looked at the proposal for the meeting next week and I'm wondering what investors views are.

    Thanks.
     
  19. nellyei

    nellyei

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    any news on this stock

    possible acquisition by lend lease?
     
  20. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    2011 for the last post????
    Anyone wanting to share feelings and opinion on the SPP on offer?
     
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