Dona Ferentes
A little bit OC⚡DC
- Joined
- 11 January 2016
- Posts
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Ain't dead yet?And it rallied??? I am stumped. What am I missing from that.
Ain't dead yet?And it rallied??? I am stumped. What am I missing from that.
'expectations ' probablyAnd it rallied??? I am stumped. What am I missing from that.
too many inside Magellan with skin in game, took loans to buy stock, and trying, hope against hope, to find a way up and out.The only question here is, When is it going to be wound up?
get outta Mosman.... hard to feel too much sympathySurely the staff who participated in this diabolical scheme will have had a margin call or two by now?
The sum of the parts is worth a lot more than the current price.
James Gerrish's take today on livewire. His Money Matters fund has a stake in MFG and they made a bullish call on it recently:
Magellan Financial Group (ASX: MFG) $7.18
"MFG -18.5%: Endured a very tough session today following the resumption of big outflows exacerbated by weakness across financial markets in September. Total FUM dropped from $39bn to $35bn, over 10%, made up of $2bn in net outflows and $2bn due to market weakness. Unfortunately, details under the hood are light but we make the following assumptions/observations as owners of the stock:
The points above imply the thesis is broken on MFG, and that might be so, the shares are screaming that we’re wrong, however, a ~$300m reduction in market cap does seem excessive. We will again reconsider our holding over the coming days."
- Our bullish thesis was predicated on improving performance stemming outflows, and in time leading to inflows - it looks wrong today.
- Principle investments account for around ~$5 worth of value, meaning the FUM business is priced very cheaply.
- Stemming outflows, however, was critical, and they’ve clearly lost another institutional mandate in September.
- Performance remains key, -$2bn of market-related declines implies clear underperformance in their global strategy wherever we draw the line.
- Performance impacts flows + it impacts performance fees. Without stating the obvious, it’s the lifeblood of an active manager.
- MFG had turned the performance corner at their last update, today's number suggests otherwise.
That's how this game works (more often than not).If the big money says buy they already have their stake and are now waiting for all the little people to start buying. And then when the price is high enough the big money sells, once again bringing the SP down.
Big money can get it wrong.If the big money says buy they already have their stake and are now waiting for all the little people to start buying. And then when the price is high enough the big money sells, once again bringing the SP down.
It's purely a number crunching exercise so hasn't taken that into account.Unless your model has taken into consideration the lead CEO’s exit then your analysis might be wrong. I hope not…. I own MFG.
An interesting exercise @Smurf1976 and it will be interesting for us to follow along to see how it works out over the 12 month period. Thanks and wishing you all the best with the experiment.It's purely a number crunching exercise so hasn't taken that into account.
Plus I emphasise I'm being experimental - the model wasn't designed for a long term holding period, it's designed around relatively shorter periods of weeks or months and I've just put longer term data in as a bit of an experiment really.
That said, in the context of the 2024 competition my reasons remain valid. The stock hasn't made a new low, on an intraday basis in January it reached the highest level since August last year, so it's a case of "OK so far".
I do emphasise this is a bit of speculative tinkering on my part though and that I do not hold this stock with real money.
So far it's neither a success nor a failure.An interesting exercise @Smurf1976 and it will be interesting for us to follow along to see how it works out over the 12 month period. Thanks and wishing you all the best with the experiment.
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