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Melbourne Cup 2011

So_Cynical

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# 17 At First Sight

Its a very open race this year, lots of chances and hard to see any standouts, Americain has form and a lot of weight and an ordinary barrier...lots and lots of chances and not hard to make a good fundamental case from more than half the field.

As a class guide...At First Sight finished second in the Epsom Derby as a 3 year old beating Rewilding who ran third...now have a look at what Rewilding did to so you think in July this year.
~
 
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Whiskers

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Hell, what would I know about race horses... but, I'll go with one of the few Aus horses, Niwot.

How on earth is there only a few Aus, a couple more NZ and mostly Irish horses this year?
 

So_Cynical

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How on earth is there only a few Aus, a couple more NZ and mostly Irish horses this year?
Horse racing has become very internationalized over the last decade or so...the VRC decided to actively chase international entrants many years ago and have had great success in attracting the internationals even if the internationals haven't actually had much success.

The Melb cup is now an international race/event much like the Aussie open or Grand Prix is.
 
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Good luck with Glass Harmonium GB, nice run yesterday but may be a little suspect at the distance for mine.

Think Americain will still be hard to beat. Carrying 58Kgs which is a heavy impost, but he is a big horse and his rum in the MV Cup was sensational.

Dunaden has plenty of wraps on it, is 5kgs under weight for age and has a great turn of foot which is important in these races. Concern for me is the jockey who hasn't set foot in Australia. Still, under the weights he comes in well.

Lucas Cranach is a German horse and has the powerful Freedman stable behind him, a 5yo entire in a nice barrier and 6kgs under wfa, should be well in this race.

Illo is another German horse now trained by the cups king Bart Cummings. You don't need to know anything about racing to know Bart can never be underestimated in the cup. Illo ran a fantastic 3rd to Americain in the MV Cup receiving only 1.5kgs from last years MC winner. Illo will receive a 5kg benefit from Americain in the cup. Jimmy Cassidy has ridden 2 cup winners. Will not suprise if Bart picks up his 13th cup.

Saeed Bin Suroor is the trainer for the powerful Godolphin stable. These guys will not quit until they win this great race. They have tried many times before, 3 seconds and a third. This year they have Modun and Lost in the Moment. Generally, they bring 2 horses out, one is touted as a champion, and the other is usually brought along as a stable companion. But it is usually the companion that nearly steals the race. I think Lost in the Moment is the companion this year. He is a 5yo entire carrying a massive 6.5kgs under wfa. Drawn great in barrier 3, he came 2nd over this distance 3200m in Ireland in a time of 3.23, carrying 60.5kgs. In the MC he will carry 53kgs. You know he will stay all day, the time above was only 7 seconds outside of Kingston Rules Melbourne Cup race record, Sheik factor, nothing on his back, and he is 35 to 1 ?

Gai Waterhouse has Tullamore in the race. Gai has always stuggled to win a MC which I am sure she would dearly love. Tullamore ticks most boxes, 3rd to Americain in MV Cup claiming only 1 kg off the horse. In the Melbourne Cup, Tullamore will receive 6kgs from Americain, a massive weight advantage over a long distance. Drawn handy in barrier 12, should give Gai a great sight this year.

Who could not be blown away by the win of Niwot yesterday. It didn't win, it shat in! Given that the horse is a huge 8.5kgs under weight for age, and the horse has won over 3200m in 3.23 minutes carrying 58kgs, you just have to put this in.

Of the rest, maybe throw in for the first 4:

Jukebox Jury has a lot of weight, but arguably the best stayer in this field.

Fox Hunt has a great turn of foot and is as good as the rest of these they say. Very well in at the weights.

Mourayan ran great in the Mackinnon but pulled up mildly lame.

Precedence ran 8th in this race last year, another Bart horse, nothing would suprise.

Moyenne Corniche is carrying the lightest weight it has ever carries, 7.5kgs under wfa.

The Verminator has been up a long time, but is carrying nothing, and his father, Jeune won a Melbourne Cup.

Drunken Sailor likes the long straight so Flemington should suit, nicely weighted.

At First Sight has to be in with a chance after his Bendigo Cup run, and So Cynical makes some good reasoning for the class in a post above.

Don't think anything else is a chance, but Melbourne Cup is full of suprises, and lots can happen between now and then. Will update closer to the race.
 

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Horse racing has become very internationalized over the last decade or so...the VRC decided to actively chase international entrants [...]
The Melb cup is now an international race/event much like the Aussie open or Grand Prix is.
... as has been pointed out in Friday's 7:30 Report on Ten: It's now so "International" that Organisers chose to pay obscene attendance fees to fillies like Paris Hilton or similar Sellebrities, just so the "Set" can feel even more important and the local yokels can gawk.
 

Wysiwyg

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Wysiwygs gossip column says

A) Drunken Sailor
B) Lucas Cranach
C) Illo
D) Lost In The Moment

:D
 
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# 17 At First Sight
Just having another look at this horse and would be interested in your opinion So_Cynical or anyone else.

At First Sight did run home well in the Bendigo Cup but this was his 4th Australian start and he still hasn't chalked up a win. In fact, his only win was a maiden race in Ireland as a 2yo.

A lot of notible judges/media are throwing this name around as a near certainty for the cup. I am struggling to work out why this horse has a chance in the race, let alone being one of the top selections?

It's breeding through his father, Galileo, suggests he should run a solid 12 furlongs or 2400m, so there is nothing to give me confidence over 16 furlongs or 3200m.

Actually, I am starting to wonder how this horse qualified for the cup.

I know horse racing can be a lottery, but this race has some of the best staying horses on the planet. I seriously doubt At First Sight can be put in this catergory.

Am I missing something? :confused:
 
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2. Jukebox Jury
5. Glass Harmonium
14. Illo

Good luck all
Giddy Up :D
 

Whiskers

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2. Jukebox Jury
5. Glass Harmonium
14. Illo

Good luck all
Giddy Up :D
So you are going with the luck of the Irish, eh.

I'm concerned it's some sort of an omen with nearly half the field Irish. :eek:

Actually this year I think I'll pay more attention to the fillies... the two legged ones. :)
 
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1 - Americain
15 - Lost in the moment
18 - Moyene corniche
22 - Tullamore...

Box em up anyway you like...
 

tech/a

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Only do a boxed trifecta and pick 4
Got the trifecta 3 yrs ago.

1,2,3,8,9,14
15,18,22,23

$250 on each
 

So_Cynical

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Just having another look at this horse and would be interested in your opinion So_Cynical or anyone else.

At First Sight did run home well in the Bendigo Cup but this was his 4th Australian start and he still hasn't chalked up a win. In fact, his only win was a maiden race in Ireland as a 2yo.

A lot of notible judges/media are throwing this name around as a near certainty for the cup. I am struggling to work out why this horse has a chance in the race, let alone being one of the top selections?

It's breeding through his father, Galileo, suggests he should run a solid 12 furlongs or 2400m, so there is nothing to give me confidence over 16 furlongs or 3200m.

Actually, I am starting to wonder how this horse qualified for the cup.

I know horse racing can be a lottery, but this race has some of the best staying horses on the planet. I seriously doubt At First Sight can be put in this catergory.

Am I missing something? :confused:
In a very very open race i like At First Sight for the following reasons.

  • Career: 11 starts wins 1 ~ seconds 4 ~ thirds 1
  • Earnings: $696,516
  • Place Rate: 55%
  • The right age: 5 Yr old Stallion (Male)
  • Good barrier: 10
  • light weight: 52.5
  • Very experienced and talented jockey: S king

So from the above stats we can see he is lightly raced and yet has been competing against some top horses in some very big races and has finished in the money 55% of the time, that shows clear class...according to my stats he has never carried less than 55.5 in a race, and here he is with 52.5 in the Cup.

Look at the form line thru Workforce....At First Sight lead for 95% of the derby and made Workforce run a track record to beat him..Workforce going on to win the Arc just 2 months later...and all this form is only 16 months ago.

The Epsom Derby 2010
~

King Edward VII S. 2010
~

Some 3 yr old's don't go on to reproduce there 3 yr old form, At First Sight has finished second at his last 2 Aussie starts...he has also been ridden quietly and come from behind and finished brilliantly, drops 5.5kgs from his Bendigo cup run and at 12 or 14 to 1 he represents good value in a very open race.

On a purely class form line (workforce, Rewilding) is hard to rate anything above him.
 
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If those 2 clips are anything to go by So cyn, then he hasn't a hope, I say that because it looks like he hasn't got a turn of foot, no kick or sprint when it matters... and that's what wins Melbourne cups these days, it's not good enough anymore to slog out the distance.. However good luck with your bet, I'll be first to say well done if it gets up, just can't see it happening...
 
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In a very very open race i like At First Sight for the following reasons.

On a purely class form line (workforce, Rewilding) is hard to rate anything above him.
Thanks mate, fair enough and best of luck!

15 Lost in the Moment
9 Lucas Cranach
23 Niwot
8 Fox Hunt
 

Julia

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What a heartbreak for the 'second' horse. Seems unfair to me not to declare this one a dead heat.

I'm not into horse racing but watch the Melbourne Cup every year, getting pathetically tearful at how beautiful the horses are. Such courage and grace.
 

Wysiwyg

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Dunaden has plenty of wraps on it, is 5kgs under weight for age and has a great turn of foot which is important in these races. Concern for me is the jockey who hasn't set foot in Australia. Still, under the weights he comes in well.

Lucas Cranach is a German horse and has the powerful Freedman stable behind him, a 5yo entire in a nice barrier and 6kgs under wfa, should be well in this race.
First and third out of all those picks. I took 10 e.w. on six runners including Red Cadeaux, beaten by a bit, in which I was privileged to hear someone say, "well that's horse racing". What a joke. :(

Not a path to wealth obviously. ;) Matter of fact they will be looking for some suckers to "play their game" after this carnival. Will it be you?
 
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What a heartbreak for the 'second' horse. Seems unfair to me not to declare this one a dead heat.

I'm not into horse racing but watch the Melbourne Cup every year, getting pathetically tearful at how beautiful the horses are. Such courage and grace.
+1

It was a good race this year. Really enjoyed the lead up to it. Enjoyed the 10 tennors, heaps better than the pathetic performance of Meat Loaf at the AFL. The horses all looked beautiful in the ring. Have they always introduced all the jockeys, I thought that was a nice touch.

I would have called it a dead heat.
 
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