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Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio

Discussion in 'Medium/Long Term Investing' started by aus_trader, Jun 5, 2017.

  1. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    G'day all,

    I have been participating in a few of the forums here (and in other forums) and wanted to post my own stock portfolio for a while.

    Although I've had good success with few of my stocks in the past, will start this portfolio fresh for all to see. I find that fellow forum members can help to keep an eye out for any negative news developments or economic changes that may affect the stocks in the portfolio.

    Although it's a longer term portfolio, it will not be a "Buy and Hold" portfolio. So I will manage it such that if a stock drops a certain % in value it will get sold and I will not tolerate too much portfolio erosion.

    The first stock in the portfolio is Capitol Health Limited (CAJ). It's a medical imaging/scanning company that has fallen heavily in price and fallen out of favour. I think selling may be over done and price may recover in the medium term. It was a market darling when it was trading at higher prices and paying dividends at the time.

    The second stock is Gateway Lifestyle Group (GTY). Bought mainly due to the story that there would be more of managed retirement living estates as increased numbers of Aussie population retires and as the aged population grows as a percentage.

    GTY has a growing number of retirement estates that is contributing to it's income and currently pays close to 5% Dividend and just started their Dividend Re-investment Plan (DRP).

    upload_2017-6-5_14-22-16.png

    Will look to add stocks with good stories and potential to appreciate as I continue to research stocks on the ASX.
     

    Attached Files:

    peter2 and Rypieee like this.
  2. Rypieee

    Rypieee Newbie Keen Beans

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    I like CAJ in your portfolio, especially after the Budget's proposal to remove the freeze on the bulk billing incentive for diagnostic imaging and pathology services:)
    Positive catalyst for a stock like CAJ and could see some earnings upgrades flow through to the stock later on down the track as the business starts gaining momentum again from the regulatory change:)
     
  3. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    I do like your macro/fundamental analysis and I know that in your own portfolio it has saved you a bundle when you said you exited NIB Holdings (NHF) on 11 May 17' :
    upload_2017-6-5_16-35-57.png

    So despite what you may about doing only one type of analysis, I'd say keep up the good work !

    Yeah, I think CAJ can recover it's price based on the macro view, it may not get to it's previous highs when it was paying good dividends, but that's OK.
     
  4. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    So despite what you may hear about doing only one type of analysis, I'd say keep up the good work !
     
  5. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    Hey Peter2, Great to have your keen eyes looking out for me as well :).
     
  6. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    Added ANTIPODES GLOBAL INV FPO (APL) to the portfolio today.

    I've been looking for and researching ways to try and hedge the portfolio from shorter to medium term downtrends in the market. Without shorting stocks directly which can be risky, I've looked at instruments that can go up as market falls as well as Exchange Traded Funds (ETF).

    Found APL that manages a portfolio of stocks by taking long and short positions to try to minimise losses in a market down trend, so bought it.

    upload_2017-6-8_14-36-24.png
     
  7. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    Did some stock research in the long weekend and came across industrial property managing firm "Property Link Group" (LPG). Listed on ASX recently, however company reports mention of future distributions of close to 7.5% at current prices so added to portfolio.

    upload_2017-6-13_16-40-36.png
     
  8. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    Added Leisure and entertainment company Donaco International (DNA) to portfolio today.
    upload_2017-6-16_18-37-47.png
     
  9. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    Have been looking for new entrants to the portfolio. Few looked interesting but looking deeper at them, it seemed not the right time to buy them as I needed to see improved results. I will monitor their progress...

    3P learning (3PL) has caught my eye and some of their educational products looked promising in my humble opinion. Recently done a restructure to keep costs down while they are trying to grow sales. So it was bought today to add to the portfolio as below:

    upload_2017-6-26_17-2-7.png
     
  10. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    Added Fleetwood Corp (FWD) today, which is has a few business divisions including builder of affordable housing such as modular homes and manufacturer of Recreational Vehicles (RV's) such as caravans.

    It was also interesting to read today, that FWD has signed a supply agreement with Gateway Lifestyles Ltd (GTY), which is another stock in this portfolio. The supply agreement is for building modular homes for GTY's managed retirement home portfolio.

    upload_2017-6-29_16-43-24.png
     
    skc likes this.
  11. Garpal Gumnut

    Garpal Gumnut

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    Been in and out of CAJ at a profit. Good on you.

    I won't be in it now, would I have had had your prescience.

    MTS seems to be bolting.

    Any ideas?

    gg
     
  12. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    Hi GG,

    That's great to hear regarding CAJ. Of course in a shorter-term trading scenario I would have considered taking profits at least partially. But in this portfolio I'm happy to hold on...

    I've had a go at short-term trading with stocks in the past and results have not been very good. Good periods of profit followed by string of losses etc.

    I've thought about posting a speculative portfolio as well which would include some small capped companies trading for cents or fractions of cents such as mining hopefuls and some new tech companies. Stories would have to offer the potential to multiply the initial investment to weigh against the risk of losing the entire investment as these tiny caps can file for bankruptcy when it runs out of money. This was the case for the technology hopeful Ceramic Fuel Cells (CFU) which I mentioned in the first posting of this thread. If I do decide to post, it will Not be included in this portfolio as it could muddle up the performance of this portfolio. I'll think about it in the new Financial Year and see if I decide to put minimal amounts (money that I can afford to lose) into any speculative companies that I come across when I do my research.

    I actually looked at MTS a year or two ago, which had an OK groceries and liquor business. But for a number of reasons I brushed it aside. Reasons included too much Debt on the books, too much competition to it's Mitre 10 hardware chain from Bunnings and Masters.

    After you pointed it out, I had a look at it today and it looks like they have done quite a turn-around including:
    • Increasing the Mitre10 profitability perhaps helped by the exit of Masters competition
    • Acquisition of Home timber and Hardware to generate bigger profits in the hardware business
    • Paying down $686m of debt since 2014, leaving it minimal debt on the books
    So I'll keep an eye out on this one. Thanks for pointing it out GG and yes it is bolting...
     
  13. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    Sold Gateway Lifestyle Group (GTY) and removed from portfolio. Have been watching this stock for a while and it's been dropping in value since the day I bought it. Also there was a small downgrade with it's guidance on 15/06/207. There has been negative press about another peer in this sector Aveo Group (AOG), which has dropped down with a gap. GTY Went Ex-Dividend yesterday, so I should collect that dividend payment despite selling at a loss.

    upload_2017-6-30_15-44-26.png

    Closed Positions:
    upload_2017-6-30_15-44-46.png
     
  14. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    First Stock for the new financial year is Mantra Group Ltd (MTR), which was bought today for $3.05. It is the nation's 2nd largest hotel/resort operator according to company information. Has been on a shopping spree recently including acquiring a hotel in Hawaii.

    upload_2017-7-3_20-18-51.png

    Closed Positions:
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  15. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    Added the company "Service Stream (SSM)" to the portfolio today. This is stock that has appeared in quite a few of the forums, so I've dug into it to find out what the story is about. From my research this has been a beneficiary of the National Broadband Network (NBN) due to the network services it offers and this is probably reflected in the run up in the share price. As the NBN is still new, SSM may continue to benefit with the services it offers, as it has done in the last few years with growing profits. SSM has also upgraded it's earnings outlook for FY17' as announced on 16-05-17.

    Also it offers a dividend, which is always welcome with any of the stocks in this portfolio.

    upload_2017-7-8_23-58-0.png

    Closed Positions:
    [​IMG]
     
  16. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    Although time is short, finally managed to get the "Speculative Stock Portfolio" thread off the ground today with a thesis sized essay as it's first post. Although it would have been less time consuming to include the speculative investments in this portfolio, I am glad I took the time to post a new thread as the expectations and risks are quite different for each portfolio and it would be difficult to measure performance in each category if combined. Put simply it would have muddled up the results of this portfolio if I included the speculative 'hit and miss' type stocks, so it's better in it's own high risk portfolio.
     
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  17. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    Got busy with posting messages in the Spec portfolio that I didn't get to update the latest buy in this portfolio.

    Added a smaller parcel of Nearmap Ltd (NEA) to this portfolio. Main reason is it's 3D mapping technology. If it wasn't for the new 3D mapping technology I would have probably brushed the stock aside like a lot of stocks that I come across, after all google maps does the job right? In terms of numbers, the revenues have been going up steadily over the last few years. It's hard to predict when the profits will start rolling in as they are spending on R&D as well as in increasing sales, but it's on the right track in my opinion.

    upload_2017-7-11_11-35-56.png

    Closed Positions:
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  18. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    Last weekend of school term break, so taking the family out on a weekend getaway, so thought to write a quick update on a stock that I added to the portfolio today.

    Codan Ltd (CDA) is a company that manufactures metal detectors used by mining/prospecting companies as well as individuals looking for some ancient coins or that elusive nugget hidden beneath the ground. These detectors are also used by military operations to detect hidden land mines.

    It also manufactures radio communication equipment that is used by military, paramedic, security and other critical or remote operations.

    The share price has run up on the back of improving sales / profits over the past year, but the company is predicting another bumper year, so I bought a parcel of shares today. CDA has also improved it's financial position by paying down debt and has ~$20m cash so I think they will continue paying dividends as well.

    upload_2017-7-14_21-41-8.png

    Closed Positions:
    [​IMG]
     
  19. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    Reviewed all the positions in the portfolio last night and found a "Head and Shoulders" pattern on the CAJ chart. It's a chart pattern and has been around for a while, I have marked them on chart as to what I saw:

    upload_2017-7-19_12-45-59.png
    As this may indicate short term weakness, I took some profits off CAJ by selling 1/2 the position on market this morning for 0.255c.

    Closed Positions:
    upload_2017-7-19_12-52-12.png
     
  20. aus_trader

    aus_trader

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    Shine Corp (SHJ) is a Legal firm that has heavily fallen and in my opinion may be due for some recovery, so bought some shares today. It was promoted by the famous Erin Brockovich (not Julia Roberts who played her role in the movie) with advertisements etc.

    SHJ has done some acquisitions with debt funding and it may be taking some time to integrate these businesses. These acquisitions once integrated and gains traction, should contribute well to Shine's bottom line I reckon.

    With acquisitions one needs to be careful I think as what has happened to the fellow law firm Slater & Gordon (SGH). I think most of you know the story but in case anyone didn't catch any news on this, I'll briefly run through the fall of this Aussie icon... Although some regulatory changes may have also affected it's profitability the main contributor towards it's fall was an acquisition it made. While doing really well in the Aussie market, SGH made a mammoth size bid for a UK law firm and funded it via debt. Along with issues with integrating this massive business it also ran into headwinds due to UK regulatory changes to personal injury laws and it's share price has fallen to all time lows at the moment...

    SHJ is also involved in the personal injury law space, so I checked as much as I could to see how much it's business is exposed to. Company states that it has no exposure to UK personal injury cases.

    SHJ is also working with a larger law firm IMF Bentham Ltd (IMF) for "Oakey contamination" class action.

    Not bought necessarily for dividend income as it may or may not pay it while going through the recovery phase. Last year paid a final dividend but the interim dividend was cut.

    upload_2017-7-22_1-15-49.png
     
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