Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Marcus Padley admits his system doesn't work

Zaxon

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It's often said about people who try and sell you investment newsletters or trading systems, if their system worked, they'd just trade it themselves and become rich. They wouldn't need to sell it to you.

It's nice to see Marcus Padley, who as newsletters go is probably one of the better ones, admit that he doesn't have a winning system. I think it's a reminder that we need to become educated ourselves, and not rely on other people's systems.

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tech/a

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Where is the rest of it
I’m sure there is some context missing.
 
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Marcus and the actual article, quite good if not very good.

For some, who say follow charts, fundamentals and other things like that a distraction or at worst, against their religion.

As brokers go, Marcus, have read his stuff occasional over the years, he is much better than most. At times and one of his points, borrowed from other wiser people, that when you should be buying, most are in panic mode selling. Conversely, at times of boom, its more likely you find those who were selling at lows, buying at the highs.

For any advisor, or broker, a good one, he tries to deal with this. Dealing with people in bull markets where any fool can make money, and once many do, they become an expert in anything and everything is associated with many of these observations.

They are good ... and valid and ... when you think your onto a good thing, markets and even stocks with winning products often end up under 10% of their peak.

I can think of a few. For a broker, for an advisor and no one seems to like paying money to experts, with of course the exception of the ones who make a lot of money. IF one were to suggest say the top performing fund mangers in stocks don't pay a lot for both their in house analysis and at times other peoples research it would be incorrect.

Each to their own, and whilst I have never met Marcus, he seems like a decent guy and more grounded and honest than most.

Cheers
 
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Pretty honest bloke, and I thought I'd never make a comment like that for a fund manager. Really shows how difficult it is to make money in the markets over the long term on a consistent basis. Not what you want to hear from a fund manager and I bet if 1 in a 1000 fundies will be as honest.
 
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Ahh ..

Marcus is NOT a fund-manger. HE is a stockbroker, investment advisor and investment letter writer.
As far as I am aware, he runs no fund and never has.

Very very different roles, he has clients who he has to convince to buy and what to buy and when to buy. A fund manager has the control and timing of when and what to buy.

He seeks to educate his clients and subscribers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Padley

We do have a couple of very decent fund mangers here in Australia, one, rarely mentioned who runs a listed fund that has and is ranked in the top 100 or 10,000 funds over the last decade.

They are out there, but as you say rare.
 

Zaxon

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Pretty honest bloke, and I thought I'd never make a comment like that for a fund manager.
I agree. I've always thought he was one of the better ones.
Really shows how difficult it is to make money in the markets over the long term on a consistent basis.
Yup. And most newsletters thrive on constant action and new trades, leading to a lot of unnecessary portfolio churn.
 
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Yup. And most newsletters thrive on constant action and new trades, leading to a lot of unnecessary portfolio churn.
I think you have hit the nail on the head there Zaxon, these financial news and recommendation companies, try and cover the whole ASX and some.
Whereas on here posters such as yourself and many others, are very good at what you do, but you keep your focus relatively narrow.
This I think makes the information here much more current, I am no chartist but I do watch the shares I'm interested in very closely and if I see news I post it straight away.
Also before I buy a share, I always look at the ASF thread to see what members think, it is a goldmine of info.
I think if people spent the time reading the stock related posts, they will glean much better info here, than waiting for an email to drop into their inbox.
Some of the chartists on here are absolutely amazing, and they don't hesitate to put forward their thoughts and reasons behind them, for absolutely no cost.
 

So_Cynical

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Marcus is the real deal, 9: When all the experts and forecasts agree - something else is going to happen ~ Telstra 16 months ago.
 
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Ahh ..

Marcus is NOT a fund-manger. HE is a stockbroker, investment advisor and investment letter writer.
As far as I am aware, he runs no fund and never has.

Very very different roles, he has clients who he has to convince to buy and what to buy and when to buy. A fund manager has the control and timing of when and what to buy.

He seeks to educate his clients and subscribers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Padley

We do have a couple of very decent fund mangers here in Australia, one, rarely mentioned who runs a listed fund that has and is ranked in the top 100 or 10,000 funds over the last decade.

They are out there, but as you say rare.
Agree that he writes a newsletter called 'Marcus Today' and he has a stockbroking background.

But he also runs a fund, therefore a fund manager by definition, see details below:
https://marcustoday.com.au/member/webpages/7696_fund-fees.php
 

StockyGuy

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Ugh, saw the performance of his two funds - it's good he's humble:) Agree he's nice guy, but min investment is 50k; who would stump that up with those results?
 

Zaxon

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And most newsletters thrive on constant action and new trades, leading to a lot of unnecessary portfolio churn.
I looked to see if my previous statement about the churn rate of newsletters applies to Marcus Today. Sure does. As @aus_trader mentioned, Marcus also runs funds: SMA and Income SMA. In these funds, they manage real money for clients.

So does the newsletter share the same investment philosophy as his funds? No. The newsletter is "hypothetical in nature" and "allow a higher risk profile and more trading activity". So lots of excitement. Lots of churn. Not necessarily actual good wealth building advice.

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Ugh, saw the performance of his two funds - it's good he's humble:) Agree he's nice guy, but min investment is 50k; who would stump that up with those results?
Yes a big chunk of money required and I also saw the fees are much higher than the 'run of the mill' asx listed funds and index funds for example.

I only mentioned it to show that he does manage funds, since kahuna1 said that he is not a funds manager.
 

So_Cynical

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Marcus Padley reckons the falls over the last 2 days are more about price than virus, i tend to agree. What goes up must come down.
~
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/will-we-crash-and-what-to-sell
Marcus Padley said:
The market had risen 33.06% from December 2018 to the high last Thursday. That’s over 1.2 years. The average annual return from the stock market is 5.7% pa. So in 1.2 years we have seen 5.8 years worth of average annual returns. This year alone the market had gone up 15% in 28 days from early January to the all time high last Thursday. That’s almost three years of average returns in a month.
 
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Marcus Padley reckons the falls over the last 2 days are more about price than virus, i tend to agree. What goes up must come down.
Agreed.

I think it was a problem (to high, too fast) looking for a trigger (virus) but if it hadn't been the virus then it would have been something else before too much longer. :2twocents
 
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