Life on the punt... Trading betting exchanges

[Telamelo]

Okay some more rcw1 tips for racing 20 May 2023, gamble safely and responsibly:

Doomben R2H1; R8H12
Rosehill: R6H5; R8H12
Flemington: R4H16; R7H10
Morphettville: R4H4; R8H9

Enjoy the day with mates snd have that good yarn …
Gotta go tutt tahhhhh beer o clock

Kind regards
Rcw1

Good luck! @rcw1 Happy punting (finger's crossed for you)

 

[rcw1]

Okay some more rcw1 tips for racing 20 May 2023, gamble safely and responsibly:

Doomben R2H1; R8H12
Rosehill: R6H5; R8H12
Flemington: R4H16; R7H10
Morphettville: R4H4; R8H9

Enjoy the day with mates snd have that good yarn …
Gotta go tutt tahhhhh beer o clock

Kind regards
Rcw1

Good morning champion punters, a Beautiful day to you all from the Home Hill track,
Highway travelling south gridlocked …

Rcw1 tips for racing southern meets, too hard to publish locals mostly last minute bookie transaction. Ha ha ha

Done okay locals in Townsville yesterday. One example the 9th race
H14 Mazrent opened Wed $26 with 6 bucks a place. When the gates opened $5.60 win and $2.60 a place ha ha ha someone new something ha ha ha
Come in 3rd. Late in the day everyone merry rumours like wildfire .
Rcw1 was on ?

Now then for today (20/05/23):
Rosehill; R4H6; R7H6; R10H4
Flemington: R5H4, 14

More to come …

Knd regards
Rcw

Good evening
Big day out today with friends and family. Always nice them days. Jeepers the ladies all dolled up, beautiful, oh to be young once again.
Anyways rcw1 report card southern meets:

Doomben: two races for 1 x salute;
Rosehill: five races for 2 x salutes;
Flemington: three races / four horses for 1 x place;
Morphettville: two races for 1 xplace

Horse race of the day was certainly Doomben R8. rcw1 backed the Cummings trained Bacchanalia, horse 12 which didn't figure in the place gettings. Waterhouse and Bott trained Surf Dancer saluted paying $35 and $9 a place. niceeeeeeeeeee
A punter colleague back it. For that little beauty, he shouted a round and another till his better half told him no more ha h ah ah aha ha

Till next Saturday if not before then.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[farmerge]

Good evening
Big day out today with friends and family. Always nice them days. Jeepers the ladies all dolled up, beautiful, oh to be young once again.
Anyways rcw1 report card southern meets:

Doomben: two races for 1 x salute;
Rosehill: five races for 2 x salutes;
Flemington: three races / four horses for 1 x place;
Morphettville: two races for 1 xplace

Horse race of the day was certainly Doomben R8. rcw1 backed the Cummings trained Bacchanalia, horse 12 which didn't figure in the place gettings. Waterhouse and Bott trained Surf Dancer saluted paying $35 and $9 a place. niceeeeeeeeeee
A punter colleague back it. For that little beauty, he shouted a round and another till his better half told him no more ha h ah ah aha ha

Till next Saturday if not before then.

Kind regards
rcw1

Well rcw I don't think you can complain about this Saturday's efforts. Social and punting !!!!!

 

[rcw1]

Good morning champions
Another day another dollar … Good fortune punters and gamble safely and responsibly.

rcw1 tips for racing 27 May 2023:
Randwick: R5H4; R8h14; R10H7, 13
Sandown: R3H1; R6H7; R9H1
Eagle Farm: R3H3; R4H11
Morphettville: R6H7; R9H6

Maybe more too.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[rcw1]

Good morning champions
Another day another dollar … Good fortune punters and gamble safely and responsibly.

rcw1 tips for racing 27 May 2023:
Randwick: R5H4; R8h14; R10H7, 13
Sandown: R3H1; R6H7; R9H1
Eagle Farm: R3H3; R4H11
Morphettville: R6H7; R9H6

Maybe more too.

Kind regards
rcw1

Last tips gotta give Adelaide a run too:

Murray Bridge R5H2; R9H6

Tutt Tah BeerOclock time

 

[rcw1]

Good morning champions
Another day another dollar … Good fortune punters and gamble safely and responsibly.

rcw1 tips for racing 27 May 2023:
Randwick: R5H4; R8h14; R10H7, 13
Sandown: R3H1; R6H7; R9H1
Eagle Farm: R3H3; R4H11
Morphettville: R6H7; R9H6

Maybe more too.

Murray Bridge R5H2; R9H6

Kind regards
rcw1

Good afternoon champions,
rcw1 report card for punting on 27/05/23:

Morphettville should have read Murray Bridge: three races for 1 x salute and 1 x place;
Randwick: three races / four horse for 1 x salute and 2 x places;
Sandown: three races for 2 x places; and
Eagle Farm: two races for 1 x place

Until next time then. Have a very nice Sunday.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[farmerge]

Good afternoon champions,
rcw1 report card for punting on 27/05/23:

Morphettville should have read Murray Bridge: three races for 1 x salute and 1 x place;
Randwick: three races / four horse for 1 x salute and 2 x places;
Sandown: three races for 2 x places; and
Eagle Farm: two races for 1 x place

Until next time then. Have a very nice Sunday.

Kind regards
rcw1

Unfortunately rcw work commitments voided me from seeing your efforts on the track earlier, but well done son more coin for the back pocket !!!!!

 

[StockyGuy]

Given there are, for example, public NRL tipsters who season after season consistently choose the winning side the majority of times, anyone have any idea what percentage of the time one would need to be correct choosing the winning side, over a season, to average, a greater than 0% profit over a full season? The assumption is fixed size bets - let's say $1k on each game, each round.

In other words, how "correct" do you have to be to beat the bookmaker's vig? I realise this is in a certain sense unanswerable - two men may get the same number of tips correct in a round, but one is markedly better off as the outcomes he guessed correctly were the major upsets of the round. But as a general rule of thumb if you manage over 60% correct, over a season, you'd probably be a profitable?? I know you may not be profitable if you only ever picked the strong favourites correctly. Buuuuut still some freak who gets, let's say, over 90% of guesses correct is gonna be a net winner, almost without exception. But how much lower than 90% is usually safely, comfortably profitable?

 

[rcw1]

Given there are, for example, public NRL tipsters who season after season consistently choose the winning side the majority of times, anyone have any idea what percentage of the time one would need to be correct choosing the winning side, over a season, to average, a greater than 0% profit over a full season? The assumption is fixed size bets - let's say $1k on each game, each round.

In other words, how "correct" do you have to be to beat the bookmaker's vig? I realise this is in a certain sense unanswerable - two men may get the same number of tips correct in a round, but one is markedly better off as the outcomes he guessed correctly were the major upsets of the round. But as a general rule of thumb if you manage over 60% correct, over a season, you'd probably be a profitable?? I know you may not be profitable if you only ever picked the strong favourites correctly. Buuuuut still some freak who gets, let's say, over 90% of guesses correct is gonna be a net winner, almost without exception. But how much lower than 90% is usually safely, comfortably profitable?

Good morning StockyGuy,
Great questions. There are many different types of bets that could be laid on punt in the NRL competition.

Allot of time betting agencies have these little beauties that are sent out and get punters hooked into having a go at a good bet, multies mostly where is sounds really good with your chances coupled with great odds maybe in favour of the punter but... once the toes is dipped in the water... ha ha ha ha ha

rcw1 for example has learnt over the passage of time to keep things simple as... so mostly rcw1 punt on the NRL is what's called head to head. For example first State of Origin, bookies have got Queensland at $2.25 to win, head-to-head bet, that for mine is pretty good odds, with NSW at $1.67. Anything under $0.30 return for NRL games, rcw1 won't lay a bet. A golden rule.

There are plenty of times where the odds are too much in favour of the bookies. In other words you gotta spend heap for little gain and on the balance of risk it simply ain't worth it, but if keen enough, you may choose a different bet for better odds, for example, 'a margin bet', giving the side you want a head start with points... There are many types of margin bets.

Essentially not sure there would be many people that have a locked in win rate 90% over time. rcw1 certainly hasn't. That, for mine, would be near impossible. Having said that anyone could do it in the short term, but medium to long term periods of time that is a completely different story. Anything over 50% gain is a win. Depends on the wager too. One grand per bet .... might mean in some circumstances, head to head, you are dealing with an exceptionally high probability of win but only a $.15 gain, so win $150 for a possible (not likely but possible) loss of $1000. Yeah people do it, add another zero... ha ha hahahaha and Murphy's Law kicks in and yeah you lose...

So then:
a general rule of thumb if you manage over 60% correct, over a season, you'd probably be a profitable??
100% on the basis that the amount you bet is consistent and measured and you don't go silly when getting overly excited about the proposition of a side winning cause that is your favourite team (how could they lose) and laying an amount of coin which is NOT measured / reasonable for the facts presented before you. (Hope this make sense - there are many variables).

But how much lower than 90% is usually safely, comfortably profitable?
All dedicated punters need and desire 100% win anything less is a failure... That is the challenge that awaits us.

But, if in a helicopter looking down objectively on the situation long term ... then consistent and realistic results of 70% win threshold, would be very nice return and most achieveable.... Attending sporting events regularly can be expensive. One would hope that the punting return supplements/pay for your expenses.

Having said that, If you can win more than 50% of the time, then that is the first gate you have gone through to punting success.


anyone have any idea what percentage of the time one would need to be correct choosing the winning side, over a season, to average, a greater than 0% profit over a full season? The assumption is fixed size bets - let's say $1k on each game, each round.

Thinking probably answered this one in the aforementioned response.

Have a very nice Sunday.
Gamble safely and responsibly.


Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Telamelo]

Good morning StockyGuy,
Great questions. There are many different types of bets that could be laid on punt in the NRL competition.

Allot of time betting agencies have these little beauties that are sent out and get punters hooked into having a go at a good bet, multies mostly where is sounds really good with your chances coupled with great odds maybe in favour of the punter but... once the toes is dipped in the water... ha ha ha ha ha

rcw1 for example has learnt over the passage of time to keep things simple as... so mostly rcw1 punt on the NRL is what's called head to head. For example first State of Origin, bookies have got Queensland at $2.25 to win, head-to-head bet, that for mine is pretty good odds, with NSW at $1.67. Anything under $0.30 return for NRL games, rcw1 won't lay a bet. A golden rule.

There are plenty of times where the odds are too much in favour of the bookies. In other words you gotta spend heap for little gain and on the balance of risk it simply ain't worth it, but if keen enough, you may choose a different bet for better odds, for example, 'a margin bet', giving the side you want a head start with points... There are many types of margin bets.

Essentially not sure there would be many people that have a locked in win rate 90% over time. rcw1 certainly hasn't. That, for mine, would be near impossible. Having said that anyone could do it in the short term, but medium to long term periods of time that is a completely different story. Anything over 50% gain is a win. Depends on the wager too. One grand per bet .... might mean in some circumstances, head to head, you are dealing with an exceptionally high probability of win but only a $.15 gain, so win $150 for a possible (not likely but possible) loss of $1000. Yeah people do it, add another zero... ha ha hahahaha and Murphy's Law kicks in and yeah you lose...

So then:
a general rule of thumb if you manage over 60% correct, over a season, you'd probably be a profitable??
100% on the basis that the amount you bet is consistent and measured and you don't go silly when getting overly excited about the proposition of a side winning cause that is your favourite team (how could they lose) and laying an amount of coin which is NOT measured / reasonable for the facts presented before you. (Hope this make sense - there are many variables).

But how much lower than 90% is usually safely, comfortably profitable?
All dedicated punters need and desire 100% win anything less is a failure... That is the challenge that awaits us.

But, if in a helicopter looking down objectively on the situation long term ... then consistent and realistic results of 70% win threshold, would be very nice return and most achieveable.... Attending sporting events regularly can be expensive. One would hope that the punting return supplements/pay for your expenses.

Having said that, If you can win more than 50% of the time, then that is the first gate you have gone through to punting success.


anyone have any idea what percentage of the time one would need to be correct choosing the winning side, over a season, to average, a greater than 0% profit over a full season? The assumption is fixed size bets - let's say $1k on each game, each round.

Thinking probably answered this one in the aforementioned response.

Have a very nice Sunday.
Gamble safely and responsibly.


Kind regards
rcw1

Excellent post mate as very well explained - all about weighing up risk/reward before placing any bet & see if the odds warrant a bet (thinking have to consider drawn games as unsure what the stats are in an average NRL season as to how many drawn games typically occur ?) since I don't follow NRL as such just sharing my 2c worth nevertheless...

 

[rcw1]

Excellent post mate as very well explained - all about weighing up risk/reward before placing any bet & see if the odds warrant a bet (thinking have to consider drawn games as unsure what the stats are in an average NRL season as to how many drawn games typically occur ?) since I don't follow NRL as such just sharing my 2c worth nevertheless...

thanks for your kind words. Great point that about a draw, seen grown men cry ... head to head is a win!! If the score is a draw at the end of 80 minutes and you ain't gone with a bet for a draw you lose your coin. So, golden point and your team wins, you still lose your bet on head to head betting. ha ha ha ha

Shouldn't laugh cause that ain't funny.. been there and it ain't a nice place to be... oh the rum flows ha ha ha ha

Have a good day with your family Telamelo.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[StockyGuy]

Good morning StockyGuy,
Great questions. There are many different types of bets that could be laid on punt in the NRL competition.

Allot of time betting agencies have these little beauties that are sent out and get punters hooked into having a go at a good bet, multies mostly where is sounds really good with your chances coupled with great odds maybe in favour of the punter but... once the toes is dipped in the water... ha ha ha ha ha

rcw1 for example has learnt over the passage of time to keep things simple as... so mostly rcw1 punt on the NRL is what's called head to head. For example first State of Origin, bookies have got Queensland at $2.25 to win, head-to-head bet, that for mine is pretty good odds, with NSW at $1.67. Anything under $0.30 return for NRL games, rcw1 won't lay a bet. A golden rule.

There are plenty of times where the odds are too much in favour of the bookies. In other words you gotta spend heap for little gain and on the balance of risk it simply ain't worth it, but if keen enough, you may choose a different bet for better odds, for example, 'a margin bet', giving the side you want a head start with points... There are many types of margin bets.

Essentially not sure there would be many people that have a locked in win rate 90% over time. rcw1 certainly hasn't. That, for mine, would be near impossible. Having said that anyone could do it in the short term, but medium to long term periods of time that is a completely different story. Anything over 50% gain is a win. Depends on the wager too. One grand per bet .... might mean in some circumstances, head to head, you are dealing with an exceptionally high probability of win but only a $.15 gain, so win $150 for a possible (not likely but possible) loss of $1000. Yeah people do it, add another zero... ha ha hahahaha and Murphy's Law kicks in and yeah you lose...

So then:
a general rule of thumb if you manage over 60% correct, over a season, you'd probably be a profitable??
100% on the basis that the amount you bet is consistent and measured and you don't go silly when getting overly excited about the proposition of a side winning cause that is your favourite team (how could they lose) and laying an amount of coin which is NOT measured / reasonable for the facts presented before you. (Hope this make sense - there are many variables).

But how much lower than 90% is usually safely, comfortably profitable?
All dedicated punters need and desire 100% win anything less is a failure... That is the challenge that awaits us.

But, if in a helicopter looking down objectively on the situation long term ... then consistent and realistic results of 70% win threshold, would be very nice return and most achieveable.... Attending sporting events regularly can be expensive. One would hope that the punting return supplements/pay for your expenses.

Having said that, If you can win more than 50% of the time, then that is the first gate you have gone through to punting success.


anyone have any idea what percentage of the time one would need to be correct choosing the winning side, over a season, to average, a greater than 0% profit over a full season? The assumption is fixed size bets - let's say $1k on each game, each round.

Thinking probably answered this one in the aforementioned response.

Have a very nice Sunday.
Gamble safely and responsibly.


Kind regards
rcw1

Thank you kindly for the insights. I expect some public tipsters only have good wins rates because they tend to just pick the bookie favourites. It's not how tipping comps work, but it would be interesting to compare all the results of an NRL tipping season for a comp on the basis of their results given the odds offered by some major bookmaker, with a $1k bet taken on every game. You could have a weird result. People who got highish win rates might be in a net loss - whereas some folks with a much lower win rate but who went the long odds outsider SUCCESSFULLY frequently may end with a good profit at the end of a season. Would be very tedious to try to do that comparison (unless it exists somewhere already, somehow).

 

[rcw1]

Good morning
It has been reported the death of Irish born 2013 Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente after battling an ongoing chronic illness. He was 15 yrs. One would remember that in 2012 Fiorente was narrowly beaten by Green Moon.

Fiorente retired in 2014 to stand at stud and leaves behind star progeny 2023 Melbourne Cup contender Lunar Flare.
Trained originally by Sir Michael Stoute, Fiorente was later purchased by Gai Waterhouse, who expressed saddness at the horse's death. As does rcw1. Waterhouse said: "I was deeply saddened to hear of the passing of Fiorente. He gave me the greatest joy of my racing life winning the Melbourne Cup in 2013. He was the most beautiful horse to train, so talented and handsome and he took everything before him."



Kind regards
rcw1

 

[farmerge]

Good morning
It has been reported the death of Irish born 2013 Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente after battling an ongoing chronic illness. He was 15 yrs. One would remember that in 2012 Fiorente was narrowly beaten by Green Moon.

Fiorente retired in 2014 to stand at stud and leaves behind star progeny 2023 Melbourne Cup contender Lunar Flare.
Trained originally by Sir Michael Stoute, Fiorente was later purchased by Gai Waterhouse, who expressed saddness at the horse's death. As does rcw1. Waterhouse said: "I was deeply saddened to hear of the passing of Fiorente. He gave me the greatest joy of my racing life winning the Melbourne Cup in 2013. He was the most beautiful horse to train, so talented and handsome and he took everything before him."



Kind regards
rcw1

Rcw still 15 not bad for a neddie, though I know they can live a lot longer than that

 

[wayneL]

Rcw still 15 not bad for a neddie, though I know they can live a lot longer than that

Should get mid-late 20s from a thoroughbred, all going well. A breeding stallion should be good for use 18-22.

Trivia:
The oldest recorded lifespan is 62 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Billy
Late 20s to early 30s pulls most of them up... I've had a few 30yo on my books over the years.

That's domestic nags though, Hampson/Pollitt in their Brumby study didn't find anything over about 15yo. Life is a helluva lot tougher for the feral herds.

 

[farmerge]

Should get mid-late 20s from a thoroughbred, all going well. A breeding stallion should be good for use 18-22.

Trivia:
The oldest recorded lifespan is 62 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Billy
Late 20s to early 30s pulls most of them up... I've had a few 30yo on my books over the years.

That's domestic nags though, Hampson/Pollitt in their Brumby study didn't find anything over about 15yo. Life is a helluva lot tougher for the feral herds.

The first foal that was born on my grand father's farm yonks ago lived a pretty fair age. Can well remember her as a youngster, was in her mid-30'd when my Uncle did the deed, as she had gone done and couldn't get up

 

[wayneL]

The first foal that was born on my grand father's farm yonks ago lived a pretty fair age. Can well remember her as a youngster, was in her mid-30'd when my Uncle did the deed, as she had gone done and couldn't get up

Never a pleasant task, mate. Being "the bloke" it's always up to me and I @#$&ing hate it

 

[farmerge]

Never a pleasant task, mate. Being "the bloke" it's always up to me and I @#$&ing hate it

Yeah I've had to do a couple of horses over the years also. Nothing worse than the howling and wailing of the owners.

 

[rcw1]

Good evening
Very nearly time for beddie byes... Looking at the racing fields ready for a punt later today
One Group One race, 2200M Queensland Oaks at Eagle Farm. See where the money goes ron ...
At the moment liking H2; Affaire a Suivre; dunno for sure yet...

Good night.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[rcw1]

Good morning champion punters,
Gamble safely and responsibly, always. Such a nice today, today, got a real good vibe, great things ahead of us, no doubt in rcw1 mind. Punters be smart and hook right into the fray ...

rcw1 racing tips for 03/06/2023:

Flemington: R2H8; R4H2; R6H4; R7H10; R8H1
Rosehill: R4H1; R6H9; R8H12
Eagle Farm: R3H7; R6H3
Morphettville: R2H5; R6H7

Have a very nice day. Beer o'clock

Kind regards
rcw1