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Life on the punt... Trading betting exchanges

Discussion in 'Trading Strategies/Systems' started by wayneL, May 29, 2019.

  1. wayneL

    wayneL Rotaredom

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    All the same mathematics, expectancy, win, loss, psychology... Even ratio of long term winners to losers, is similar.

    A fair few years ago, when due to personal circumstances, I was ahead of the information curve in the racing industry, a large part of my income was on the punt.

    When I lost that information advantage, sans my current mathematical savvy, I was smart enough to let go of the punt.

    The advantage in those days was knowing people in low places and inside information , while I have not regained that advantage, I have gained a different advantage of the information of the internet age and the education of having been a stock market Trader... specifically a nuanced form of the expectancy equation.

    The betting market is faster and has many of the some aspects of day trading such as the ability to trade market fluctuations. In fact there are professional Traders who have migrated from the stock market to the betting market.

    Well I maintain, and always will, a presence in the financial markets, and finding a source of trading income to be substantively easier in the betting markets.

    Maybe it's because I have some advanced knowledge of horses and exercise physiology but equally I also know several punters making a living with almost zero knowledge of the same... often in diverse sports betting markets.

    I thought it would be an interesting topic here on ASF because it is basically trading but in a different arena.

    Discuss
     
  2. StockyGuy

    StockyGuy Observe, Discuss, Apply

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    Isn't the problem that consistent profitability means after a certain level of success a platform will not take a bet from you anymore?

    I gather Betfair doesn't overcome that because what they cover can be "lumpy" and limited.

    Also the whole "matched betting" approach has issues in various parts of Aus, due to jurisdictional matters.
     
  3. wayneL

    wayneL Rotaredom

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    Well it's a different landscape from when I was punting before, mostly on course and in cash with real bookies.

    A client of mine has had problems in getting deplatformed, but made (and still does) a crapperload before it became a real problem.

    I think betfair has much higher volumes these days so the liquidity issue not so bad.

    I'm certainly not betting massive stakes, but I did hit a purple patch three weeks ago where I pulled over 5k over four days without anyone really noticing I was there.

    But, I don't think we're at the level here with betafair yet, that they are in the UK where the liquidity is good enough for scalping fluctuations.
     
  4. StockyGuy

    StockyGuy Observe, Discuss, Apply

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  5. StockyGuy

    StockyGuy Observe, Discuss, Apply

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    Yep, definitely some opportunities. I sense you know a LOT more about the topic than me, but I gather if ya "doing it right" it's as tediously boring as stocks and so forth are. By that I mean success is from seeking a good value for money on every wager. So it's NOT about who you think will win. It's also NOT about going for the longshot that pays out a motza. It's about whatever has a reasonable chance but with which you are getting better odds from bookie than are justified (according to your own fallible assessment).

    So extremely tedious - all about money management. Never betting more than 2% (cos theres no stop loss in this game ie your stake = your risk).

    Churning through lots of bets but choosing high value (odds being offered better than the nag or whatever truly deserves) bets every time - will give you a positive expectancy over time. Also constantly hunting for best odds can give edge.

    It's counterintuitive - the usual social punter either bets for his (or more rarely her) favourite NRL team or whatever, or the one they think will win. Or worst of all the favourite paying $1.05.

    What do ya do when you get the likes of a Winx in its last few races? If it lost it would be a punter bloodbath because people would presumably be willing to stake so much because payout % so low on such a favourite when it wins. But then it's Winx, right? It can't lose! Well it's history now. But it could've been otherwise.

    VALUE and money management. Probably quite a few who wagered on ALP victory learnt the hard way (excluding those who got the early payout by a headline hunting bookie).
     
  6. StockyGuy

    StockyGuy Observe, Discuss, Apply

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    Oh that's right. Now I remember the farrier thing - yeah maybe you have a special instinct which is helped by being there in person. (I don't mean it sarcastically. You probably have an edge in the realm of equine wagering.)
     
  7. wayneL

    wayneL Rotaredom

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    Exactly correct. The parallels with trading stock is great.
     
  8. wayneL

    wayneL Rotaredom

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    I've also trained a small team of gallopers. Entered the game after a high level equestrian career... Did pretty good with off bred, cheap yang-yangs.

    Yeah so guess I have some good insights.

    As a farrier, I know what *won't* win. But that only applies to horses I actually get under.

    There is a science to it however that trancends the hands on horsemanship. A lot of professional punters wouldn't know the first thing about horses.
     
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  9. StockyGuy

    StockyGuy Observe, Discuss, Apply

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    Don't know what it says about NRL players, but as I watch this NRL game now (half time), I'm reminded how little value the tips of current and ex players are, will all their insights and inside info lol.
     
  10. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    I used to punt a lot many years ago - i like the stock market because every day in a stock is like a race except at the end of the day/race you do not have to except the outcome and can simply go round again, indefinitely and at no additional cost, thats a massive advantage to the average punter/investor....more like being a part owner than a gambler.
     
  11. wayneL

    wayneL Rotaredom

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    It's never going to replace the stock market, that's for sure.

    In fact, the idea is to put profits into stocks.
     
  12. wayneL

    wayneL Rotaredom

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    So, I've been f4rt4rsing around with different systems and staking plans for a few months now, trying to devise a punting system that had the following features, just to see if it can be done.

    1/ consistently profitable on a month by month basis (duh)
    2/ completely mechanical with minimal time input
    3/ All bets placed once per day.
    3/ does not rely on elaborate staking plans.

    I finally crunched it down to a selection of runners in each race using machine generated ratings, punter psychology, statistics and randomness, based on a large database of results, and taking Betfair starting price on those runners.

    Implemented Nov 1st I have now staked on just under about 450 individual races and it is running at 16% profit on turnover. Money management is good old fixed fractional position sizing which is the real power in this because if the rapid turnover.

    I've doubled my bank in that time on a pretty geared mm. (It is a small trial bank). If I decide to proceed with a much larger bank, I will wind down the position size.

    But going pretty damn good so far. Much easier than day trading, the only drudgery is maintaining the database.
     
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