Life on the punt... Trading betting exchanges

[wayneL]

All the same mathematics, expectancy, win, loss, psychology... Even ratio of long term winners to losers, is similar.

A fair few years ago, when due to personal circumstances, I was ahead of the information curve in the racing industry, a large part of my income was on the punt.

When I lost that information advantage, sans my current mathematical savvy, I was smart enough to let go of the punt.

The advantage in those days was knowing people in low places and inside information , while I have not regained that advantage, I have gained a different advantage of the information of the internet age and the education of having been a stock market Trader... specifically a nuanced form of the expectancy equation.

The betting market is faster and has many of the some aspects of day trading such as the ability to trade market fluctuations. In fact there are professional Traders who have migrated from the stock market to the betting market.

Well I maintain, and always will, a presence in the financial markets, and finding a source of trading income to be substantively easier in the betting markets.

Maybe it's because I have some advanced knowledge of horses and exercise physiology but equally I also know several punters making a living with almost zero knowledge of the same... often in diverse sports betting markets.

I thought it would be an interesting topic here on ASF because it is basically trading but in a different arena.

Discuss

 

[StockyGuy]

Isn't the problem that consistent profitability means after a certain level of success a platform will not take a bet from you anymore?

I gather Betfair doesn't overcome that because what they cover can be "lumpy" and limited.

Also the whole "matched betting" approach has issues in various parts of Aus, due to jurisdictional matters.

 

[wayneL]

Well it's a different landscape from when I was punting before, mostly on course and in cash with real bookies.

A client of mine has had problems in getting deplatformed, but made (and still does) a crapperload before it became a real problem.

I think betfair has much higher volumes these days so the liquidity issue not so bad.

I'm certainly not betting massive stakes, but I did hit a purple patch three weeks ago where I pulled over 5k over four days without anyone really noticing I was there.

But, I don't think we're at the level here with betafair yet, that they are in the UK where the liquidity is good enough for scalping fluctuations.

 

[StockyGuy]

interesting insights: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...r/news-story/db6be65ffe7c28d900d1d8528fe8a88e

 

[StockyGuy]

Well it's a different landscape from when I was punting before, mostly on course and in cash with real bookies.

A client of mine has had problems in getting deplatformed, but made (and still does) a crapperload before it became a real problem.

I think betfair has much higher volumes these days so the liquidity issue not so bad.

I'm certainly not betting massive stakes, but I did hit a purple patch three weeks ago where I pulled over 5k over four days without anyone really noticing I was there.

But, I don't think we're at the level here with betafair yet, that they are in the UK where the liquidity is good enough for scalping fluctuations.

Yep, definitely some opportunities. I sense you know a LOT more about the topic than me, but I gather if ya "doing it right" it's as tediously boring as stocks and so forth are. By that I mean success is from seeking a good value for money on every wager. So it's NOT about who you think will win. It's also NOT about going for the longshot that pays out a motza. It's about whatever has a reasonable chance but with which you are getting better odds from bookie than are justified (according to your own fallible assessment).

So extremely tedious - all about money management. Never betting more than 2% (cos theres no stop loss in this game ie your stake = your risk).

Churning through lots of bets but choosing high value (odds being offered better than the nag or whatever truly deserves) bets every time - will give you a positive expectancy over time. Also constantly hunting for best odds can give edge.

It's counterintuitive - the usual social punter either bets for his (or more rarely her) favourite NRL team or whatever, or the one they think will win. Or worst of all the favourite paying $1.05.

What do ya do when you get the likes of a Winx in its last few races? If it lost it would be a punter bloodbath because people would presumably be willing to stake so much because payout % so low on such a favourite when it wins. But then it's Winx, right? It can't lose! Well it's history now. But it could've been otherwise.

VALUE and money management. Probably quite a few who wagered on ALP victory learnt the hard way (excluding those who got the early payout by a headline hunting bookie).

 

[StockyGuy]

Well it's a different landscape from when I was punting before, mostly on course and in cash with real bookies.

A client of mine has had problems in getting deplatformed, but made (and still does) a crapperload before it became a real problem.

I think betfair has much higher volumes these days so the liquidity issue not so bad.

I'm certainly not betting massive stakes, but I did hit a purple patch three weeks ago where I pulled over 5k over four days without anyone really noticing I was there.

But, I don't think we're at the level here with betafair yet, that they are in the UK where the liquidity is good enough for scalping fluctuations.

Oh that's right. Now I remember the farrier thing - yeah maybe you have a special instinct which is helped by being there in person. (I don't mean it sarcastically. You probably have an edge in the realm of equine wagering.)

 

[wayneL]

Yep, definitely some opportunities. I sense you know a LOT more about the topic than me, but I gather if ya "doing it right" it's as tediously boring as stocks and so forth are. By that I mean success is from seeking a good value for money on every wager. So it's NOT about who you think will win. It's also NOT about going for the longshot that pays out a motza. It's about whatever has a reasonable chance but with which you are getting better odds from bookie than are justified (according to your own fallible assessment).

So extremely tedious - all about money management. Never betting more than 2% (cos theres no stop loss in this game ie your stake = your risk).

Churning through lots of bets but choosing high value (odds being offered better than the nag or whatever truly deserves) bets every time - will give you a positive expectancy over time. Also constantly hunting for best odds can give edge.

It's counterintuitive - the usual social punter either bets for his (or more rarely her) favourite NRL team or whatever, or the one they think will win. Or worst of all the favourite paying $1.05.

What do ya do when you get the likes of a Winx in its last few races? If it lost it would be a punter bloodbath because people would presumably be willing to stake so much because payout % so low on such a favourite when it wins. But then it's Winx, right? It can't lose! Well it's history now. But it could've been otherwise.

VALUE and money management. Probably quite a few who wagered on ALP victory learnt the hard way (excluding those who got the early payout by a headline hunting bookie).

Exactly correct. The parallels with trading stock is great.

 

[wayneL]

Oh that's right. Now I remember the farrier thing - yeah maybe you have a special instinct which is helped by being there in person. (I don't mean it sarcastically. You probably have an edge in the realm of equine wagering.)

I've also trained a small team of gallopers. Entered the game after a high level equestrian career... Did pretty good with off bred, cheap yang-yangs.

Yeah so guess I have some good insights.

As a farrier, I know what *won't* win. But that only applies to horses I actually get under.

There is a science to it however that trancends the hands on horsemanship. A lot of professional punters wouldn't know the first thing about horses.

 

[StockyGuy]

Don't know what it says about NRL players, but as I watch this NRL game now (half time), I'm reminded how little value the tips of current and ex players are, will all their insights and inside info lol.

 

[So_Cynical]

I used to punt a lot many years ago - i like the stock market because every day in a stock is like a race except at the end of the day/race you do not have to except the outcome and can simply go round again, indefinitely and at no additional cost, thats a massive advantage to the average punter/investor....more like being a part owner than a gambler.

 

[wayneL]

I used to punt a lot many years ago - i like the stock market because every day in a stock is like a race except at the end of the day/race you do not have to except the outcome and can simply go round again, indefinitely and at no additional cost, thats a massive advantage to the average punter/investor....more like being a part owner than a gambler.

It's never going to replace the stock market, that's for sure.

In fact, the idea is to put profits into stocks.

 

[wayneL]

So, I've been f4rt4rsing around with different systems and staking plans for a few months now, trying to devise a punting system that had the following features, just to see if it can be done.

1/ consistently profitable on a month by month basis (duh)
2/ completely mechanical with minimal time input
3/ All bets placed once per day.
3/ does not rely on elaborate staking plans.

I finally crunched it down to a selection of runners in each race using machine generated ratings, punter psychology, statistics and randomness, based on a large database of results, and taking Betfair starting price on those runners.

Implemented Nov 1st I have now staked on just under about 450 individual races and it is running at 16% profit on turnover. Money management is good old fixed fractional position sizing which is the real power in this because if the rapid turnover.

I've doubled my bank in that time on a pretty geared mm. (It is a small trial bank). If I decide to proceed with a much larger bank, I will wind down the position size.

But going pretty damn good so far. Much easier than day trading, the only drudgery is maintaining the database.

 

[wayneL]

I've running this system in the background without saying too much here.

I mention it today because I have achieved 10x on my original capital without adding anything in.

The honest this is limited by the amount you can turn over without being banned cover by the corporates, Betfair gives you an opportunity to carry this on without being banned.

If I had a million dollars that I would be prepared to put at risk I would chuck it into the system, but there is a limitation in the betting turnover per race.

****!

But it gives me a great deal of pleasure to bet on horses and actually make a profit out of it, even if I can't scale up to the amount that I would like to.

 

[peter2]

Fantastic achievement in a very difficult activity.
Is the system the one you described earlier?
Are you betting on runners that are overlays according to your own generated odds?
Or are you just betting a few top rated horses in a race if their ratings are high enough? Dutching the race?
Are you generating your ratings yourself or starting with figures from another source?
Which is your most profitable state?

Hey, sorry for all the questions, just trying to get to the foundations of the strategy not all the details.
You've got me all excited but I'll never resume any serious betting activity again. The fin markets are much easier for me to earn a profit.

 

[Roller_1]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

- (ignore the stupid bloomberg robot stuff)

This isn't you is it Wayne? A interesting story if anyone hasnt read it

The recent chat with traders episode migh interest you, I found that quite interesting. Trading on the outcomes of events

 

[wayneL]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

This isn't you is it Wayne? A interesting story if anyone hasnt read it

The recent chat with traders episode migh interest you, I found that quite interesting. Trading on the outcomes of events

 

[finicky]

Pretty incredible thread from what I have read. Not interested in punting myself although I gave it a spin when I was a fruit-picker - gave a little spice to a mundane life then.
Waayy back when a student/drop-out a few friends and acquaintances of mine were into it systematically. The most colourful one I suppose was Sandy, a super neurotic drop out statistics major from Monash uni. She was making enough money to feel guilty about it so was giving money away (not to me). This was an opportunity from heaven for Jim, a single father drop-out from Monash who was an incurable interferer and manipulator. So Sandy was funding him stuff for his kids plus a stereo and records for Jim. Then she changed her mind and wanted it all back. Anyway the system they were into was something about reducing all the parameters affecting a poor old horse's racing performance down to one metric - weight. Everything about the horse was calculated as if it were the kgs he was carrying: past form, jockey's record, wet track dry track, actual weight, whatever. At least that's what I recall. Once I was following along and we visited a professional punter's house who seemed to be viewed as a punting guru. His income I was told was solely from punting and he had a wife and two kids to support. He struck me as being very remote and paranoid.

 

[wayneL]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

This isn't you is it Wayne? A interesting story if anyone hasnt read it

The recent chat with traders episode migh interest you, I found that quite interesting. Trading on the outcomes of events

No way am I that smart, but I do use mathematics to the best of my ability (poor).

This means that my profit goals are extremely modest... But even at extremely modest returns, compounding works it's magic .

 

[wayneL]

Fantastic achievement in a very difficult activity.
Is the system the one you described earlier?
Are you betting on runners that are overlays according to your own generated odds?
Or are you just betting a few top rated horses in a race if their ratings are high enough? Dutching the race?
Are you generating your ratings yourself or starting with figures from another source?
Which is your most profitable state?

Hey, sorry for all the questions, just trying to get to the foundations of the strategy not all the details.
You've got me all excited but I'll never resume any serious betting activity again. The fin markets are much easier for me to earn a profit.

Peter I'll come back to this with some detail 👍

 

[Captain_Chaza]

I love the Punt! Too!

I prefer the NYSE but the ASX is more in tune with my Sleeping habits
As they say,
Ya can't have everything!

and also Support the Carlton Football Club ( AFL) for a few side investments each match this year
and
I got Carlton for the Flag 2022 @ 27 to 1 before the season started

Who needs Luck?
Skill is all you need!