KZL - Kagara Limited

[Kauri]

mmm Decision time... have been holding since 6 Oct @ $1.50.... descending triangles do at times break to the upside..then again the trend line seems a touch too steep to hold... monday will reveal all I think

 

[Kauri]

Re: KZL Kagara Zinc

P+F gives it a bit more leeway....

 

[RichKid]

Re: KZL Kagara Zinc

Hey Kauri,
I like this co.
The pattern could even be considered a flag or pennant, volume would reveal more imo. I'm looking at Zn co's too and this one looks ok but again we need to know how this pattern will pan out, the steepness is a bit of a worry but it's still a strong trend and we should assume it'll continue in force until there is overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Problem is if you don't hold already that provides little comfort for an entry. Could easily retest the previous high, not sure what price level that is from the chart but it's way down below.

 

[Kauri]

Re: KZL Kagara Zinc

mmm Decision time... have been holding since 6 Oct @ $1.50.... descending triangles do at times break to the upside..then again the trend line seems a touch too steep to hold... monday will reveal all I think

Break down vol wasn't strong enough to lure me into shorts.... might have missed this boat.

 

[Ann]

Re: KZL Kagara Zinc

Hi Kauri,

I hope you kept hold of this one.

... a chart for KZL. I have drawn an overhead trendline which may in turn become a support trendline if there is a retrace in the price. It is a slightly different way to look at a chart when the bulls are running so fast.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: KZL Kagara Zinc

Hi Kauri,

I hope you kept hold of this one.

... a chart for KZL. I have drawn an overhead trendline which may in turn become a support trendline if there is a retrace in the price. It is a slightly different way to look at a chart when the bulls are running so fast.

Hi Ann

Thanks, nice charts

btw do u know whether KZL partly or fully hedge zinc prices?

Thanks

MS

 

[Ann]

Re: KZL Kagara Zinc

Sorry Michael,

No. You may have to ask one of the clever blokes like Brerewallabi....he would know that sort of stuff right off the top of his head. I think he is Mr Zinc here!

I am a chartist first and a fundo second...close second!

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: KZL Kagara Zinc

Hi Ann

Thanks, nice charts

btw do u know whether KZL partly or fully hedge zinc prices?

Thanks

MS

Accounts published last financial year show Kagara is not exposed to hedging - zero. Its a low cost producer and even if their were some hedging it would still make good money but with the price of zinc where it is know KZL will make a motza. Low debt too and still more upside in my opinion.

“Do not rely on this post as being a forecaster of future share price, please do your own research”

 

[brerwallabi]

Re: KZL Kagara Zinc

New high again today @ $2.44 a 7% increase. ZFX is not the only zinc producer in Australia, people are now starting to look around at other opportunities with zinc producers. PEM and CBH also on the move up today they are producers not explorers and are well placed for the upside in zinc. Zinc, the dot.com boom of 2006 lol.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: KZL Kagara Zinc

New high again today @ $2.44 a 7% increase. ZFX is not the only zinc producer in Australia, people are now starting to look around at other opportunities with zinc producers. PEM and CBH also on the move up today they are producers not explorers and are well placed for the upside in zinc. Zinc, the dot.com boom of 2006 lol.

Thanks

lol actually to be more accurate, zinc the dot.com boom of 2008 imo (based on current forecasts)!

 

[GreatPig]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Some serious RSI divergence showing on this one at the moment.

GP

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

yer, i have had me eyes on this one but the sudden jumps cause me to sit on the sidelines and wait for another opportunity.

 

[nizar]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

analyst if u think zinc price can hold up till next year check out TZN (feb07 first production) or AIM (jun07 first production)

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

analyst if u think zinc price can hold up till next year check out TZN (feb07 first production) or AIM (jun07 first production)

thx nizar i will do as soon as i come back from my walk and coffee from mcdonalds....yer zinc is high..have you got a researched opinion on it as yesterday i was looking for some books on trading bear markets...just a pre emptive strategy to start catching up on again

 

[nizar]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

thx nizar i will do as soon as i come back from my walk and coffee from mcdonalds....yer zinc is high..have you got a researched opinion on it as yesterday i was looking for some books on trading bear markets...just a pre emptive strategy to start catching up on again

i been looking at zinc lately and it seems to be the one metal that is seeing lack of supply, as seen by LME stocks falling by approx 2000tonnes per day for some time now...

I was doing some research this morning as this is wat iv come up with so far..

"Zinc prices in the December quarter hit 16-year highs and the company (ZFX) realised an average price of $2225 per tonne in the December quarter, up 29.4 per cent on the September quarter.
Zinc stocks on the London Metals Exchange fell by 35 per cent over the December quarter and a shortfall of about 400,000 tonnes of the metal is expected this year"

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=65960

Demand is also said to be robust, with china being a net importer whereas for several years it was an exporter, and demand for there more than compensating for declines in US demand due to cuts in production from Ford and GM..

In 2006, world mine production is expected to continue to remain constrained, rising by only 2 per cent to 10 million tonnes.

In 2006, world zinc consumption is forecast to grow by 2.5 per cent to 10.9 million tonnes.

As a reflection of the current imbalance between zinc mine and metal output capacity, annual zinc treatment charges fell from an estimated US$210 a tonne in early 2000 to approximately US$115 a tonne in 2005 as smelters competed for scarce concentrate feed. Treatment charges are the fees charged by smelting operators to convert zinc concentrates to metal. In late 2005, chronic shortages in zinc concentrates resulted in spot treatment charges in China and India reportedly falling to negative levels for the first time ever.

http://www.abareconomics.com/AC_Mini_Site/htmlversion/metals/zinc.html

LONDON Zinc prices have risen so fast that Robin Bhar, a metals industry analyst for 22 years, is about to raise his forecast for the second time in two months.

"We've all been left behind," said Bhar, who works in London with UBS. "It's just phenomenal. No one in their wildest imagination thought it would get to these levels."

Zinc has almost doubled since July 15 to $2,250 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, where it traded at record levels for 11 straight days this month. Prices may stay high as China increases imports and mining companies struggle to expand production.

Another reason why zinc price may rise and this goes for all base metals...

Pension funds and speculators are joining the rally in zinc and metals including copper, aluminum and gold, seeking an alternative to stocks and bonds.

Money held by funds tracking commodity-linked indexes will rise 38 percent this year to $110 billion, according to Barclays Capital. Hermes Pensions Management, which oversees Britain's largest pension fund, said two weeks ago that it would invest £1 billion, or about $1.8 billion, of BT Group's retirement plan in commodities including metals.

"Two, three, four, five years ago, we would have seen that with the hedge funds, but not the big state pension funds," Bob Diamond, chief executive of Barclays Capital, said last week. "We are seeing an asset class shift."

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/29/bloomberg/bxcom.php

Now looking at spot prices, copper, aluminium, lead and nickel, all are up. But the LME stocks (supplies) are also increasing for these metals. For zinc, prices are increasing, but LME stocks also decreasing...

out of the base metals, zinc price began 2 rally in mid2004, while with copper, lead and aluminium began rising was mid2003. Nickel rallied from jan02-jan04 and since then has been increasingly volatile as LME stocks have increased....

the conclusion?

no idea, but its more likely than other base metals to keep rising imo...
according to ZFX, lead prices are expected to soften this year...

anywayz, do u research, post wat u come up with..

cheers and good luck

 

[mime]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

I heard zinc is going to be the next major mover. Probably worth holding.

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

i think that sums it up a bit...but can you go with the zinifix story that prices will soften as we know it is putting pressure on the margins of steel producers such as bluescope steel and as we can now see takeovers and mergers appearing to increase their survival rates.

 

[Ann]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Hi Guys,

Just a chart if I may........

 

[michael_selway]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Now looking at spot prices, copper, aluminium, lead and nickel, all are up. But the LME stocks (supplies) are also increasing for these metals. For zinc, prices are increasing, but LME stocks also decreasing...

out of the base metals, zinc price began 2 rally in mid2004, while with copper, lead and aluminium began rising was mid2003. Nickel rallied from jan02-jan04 and since then has been increasingly volatile as LME stocks have increased....

the conclusion?

exactly, Zinc appears to be the only base metal, that fundmentally prices should rise in the near future, next 12 months at least

The others are mostly speculative atm. Altough LME supplies have been increasing in recent months, they are coming off 5yr lows, thus prices are still very high atm. So most probably their prices will fall in the next 12 months

However I have notced that Copper Supplies have dropped a bit in the last week or so!

 

[clowboy]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

this is fast becoming the one that got away...........