Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

JDO - Judo Capital Holdings

So they beat Prospectus forecasts .... Why aren't they then close to Prospectus Share Price?

(Edit: Sorry not expecting a conclusive answer. More statement like)


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So they beat Prospectus forecasts .... Why aren't they then close to Prospectus Share Price?

(Edit: Sorry not expecting a conclusive answer. More statement like)

Looks like they raised IPO money at ~1.7 x book value...currently trading just a tad under book value now.

Seems right for a bank that went from 3.9c EPS to -0.8c EPS YoY.

Premium to book is reserved for banks that the market believes can get a positive ROE/ROA.
Half Year Results Announcement: Tuesday 21 February 2023
Not quite sure how it has been for SME's over this past half year.
Yet they are up 14% YTD (ASX up 4.5%)

Looking at lightening my exposure to them. But (rating Agencies) consensus seems positive with them.
Judo Bank’s first half profit jumped by over 300 per cent to $53.2 million.
  • Underlying net interest margin climbed 72 basis points to 3.56 per cent, supported by improved term deposit margins and rates leverage.
  • Reported gross loans and advances of $7.5 billion for the half, up 23 per cent on pcp,
  • Net interest income of $163 million, 69 per cent higher than the pcp.
  • Remains on track to achieve its FY23 guidance
Ha Ha.
Left the SMSF order open. Got rid of 'em.

Still holding in the personal.

JDO is looking steady.... If not good.
Not sure how recession proof they are though.
Back in again in the SMSF.

Funny times.

Hoping JDO will benefit from all the calls by "experts" to shop around.
JDO under a bit of pressure with current banking conniptions, as analysts put the smaller players under the microscope.

At the launch of of their book, co-written with David Hornery, co-founder of Judo Bank, and called Black Belt, A masterclass for start-ups and entrepreneurs , Joseph Healy spoke on the SVB crisis.

Banking start-ups or finance company start-ups face a unique set of risks that really require people with deep domain experience in my view,” Healy says.

My understanding is the Silicon Valley Bank became much more fixated on becoming a tech company and on ESG. They were more focused on being a technology company first and a bank second.

They made extensive use of external consultants, and management just wasn’t across the risks in the business.”

Healy says it is fortunate that Australia has a “very different banking system than that which exists in the United States”.

Ours is fundamentally different – it is well-regulated, well-capitalised and has strong liquidity. And, you know, in the US, what the smaller banks have been doing is heavily lobbying in Washington to try and relax some of the regulatory oversight that was introduced after the global financial crisis.

Rather than building up the risk management and resilience of their banks, the bankers in the US spent much more time lobbying for relaxing regulation. In the case of Silicon Valley Bank, they lost sight that they were, in fact, a bank and not a technology company.”
Now the the US banking conniptions are being treated, JDO looks a high probability reversal trade opportunity. Todays high volume bullish bar (HVBB) looks promising. I'd place my initial stop loss at 1.10 and wouldn't like seeing price go back there. Initial target is the old highs (1.50) then onwards and upwards. It may even get back to the IPO price (2.10) in a few years time.
Looks like onwards and upwards again.
Blinkers on chart of 30 days looking good, 6 month chart also looking promising if the SP can continue it's run.
Personally, had started averaging down, but realised I was over a barrel, and turned a blind eye.
Thankfully the financial markets bounced back, but still a cautious area for a while yet.


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So am I.
Had a buy order in at $1.1 a little while ago.
Happy it didn't hit it.
Just want to see it meandering up.
My brains must be slipping away.
Bought another 10 grand worth at $ 1.10 this morning.
What a loser....more money than sense.
I haven't been following JDO.

It certainly, apart from some time just before and after NY 22/23, has been in a determined downtrend.

Less than half it's value two and a half years ago.

A weekly chart full of red.


FY results.

Judo Bank delivers 46% lending growth and 7x profit increase, as it reaches halfway to metrics at scale
Financial Highlights
FY23 Result FY22 Result FY23 vs FY22 Gross loans and advances ($bn) 8.9 v 6.1 UP 46%
Deposits ($bn) 6.0 4.1 46% Profit before tax ($m) 107.5 v UP 15.6 7x
Cost to income ratio 54% v 76% UP 22%
Return on equity 5.1% v 0.7% UP 4.4%
Underlying net interest margin 3.53% v 2.79% UP 74 b

SP intra day 1.068 Down 18%