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Investment implications of Climate Change

Discussion in 'Business, Investment and Economics' started by SirRumpole, Sep 17, 2019.

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  1. basilio

    basilio

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    There is a real challenge here Smurf which you have (rightly) banged on about ad nauseam.:(

    The simple xxxxing problem is that our governments have collectively refused to recognise the reality and size of the problem to do with global warming and a host of associated issues.

    On an economic basis renewable energy sources are now much cheaper than fossil fuels. Obviously storage and transmission issues have to be addressed but that is becoming much more doable.
    If there was a change in political will, there would be host of businesses that could expect to make a dollar. But for that to happen our governments would need to decide we were going in the wrong direction and also decide to intervene in the market place in terms of encouraging particular directions and discouraging others.
    In terms of a big picture approach something like The Green New Deal proposed by the Democrats is the sort of blueprint that would reinvigorate national economies. :2twocents
     
    Jack Aubrey likes this.
  2. Jack Aubrey

    Jack Aubrey Very inexperienced trader

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    Fair call. EV and renewable battery tech will continue to evolve but Cobalt, Nickel and Lithium seem pretty well set to play a major role. Ni stockpiles have taken a hammering recently (but it isn't entirely clear why or who is buying)

    Amongst the MidCaps, I hold Jervois Mining (ASX:JRV) which has near-mine Co and Ni projects in the US, Uganda and NSW. Market Cap is $134.7M and current SP is $0.21.

    Of the (many) Small and Micro Cap explorers, I have Rox Resources (ASX:RXL) which is active in proving up both Gold and Ni resources in WA. Current MC is $32.1M and SP is 2.2 cents. They seem to have enough money in bank for a decent drilling and assay program and now own the only processing plant in the (previously abandoned but now) reopened Youami gold mining area.

    I haven't found a Lithium miner I like enough to invest in (after getting creamed with an early punt on AVZ) but the resource price is now forecast to increase as current battery plants in China reach full production and rapidly draw down global stockpiles. I am leaning towards the S. American Lithium Brine hopefuls like Galan Lithium (ASX:GLN) - MC $26.7M, SP $0.19 - rather than the Australian or African rock miners. Like RXL, GLN seems to be very subject to price manipulation on a day-to-day basis.

    None of the above are recommendations! I am new to this and could be a total idiot.

    I'd be very interested in others' comments on these sectors and on these and other companies in the filed of battery metals.
     
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  3. Value Collector

    Value Collector Have courage, and be kind.

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    Slower growth is still growth.

    For emissions to decline we would need to see shrinking of economies, where less products and services are being generated and consumed.

    Also, if some one loses their job, and on Friday night spends $30 and on a 6 pack and a bbq at home, rather than going out to a restaurant, and spending $60 on 3 beers and a curry, the figures will show the economy shrank, but in reality the carbon footprint would be equal or higher.

    Same story if every one sits at home watching their own TV with their heater going, rather than sitting together in a movie theater.
     
  4. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    The west co2 emissions have been decreasing, replaced plus more by India and China
    But true we are still emitting, not that i think it is of any importance except in the view of sustainability
     
  5. explod

    explod explod

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    Not so, both India and China have cancelled very many proposed coal powered generating stations, they are also planting trees on a mammoth scale as well. In fact China have deployed a lot of their troops into the tree planting. We here and the US stand alone as way behind the rest of the world. On India of course it is putting Adanie's plans in jeopardy also.
     
  6. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    You really need to visit China
     
  7. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    Very good ideas there Jack, generally speaking the nickel stockpile issue was brought about by the collapse in the nickel price, so most of the mines were shut and put on care and maintenance. A lot of them are currently in the process of re starting.
    With lithium and cobalt, the problem is opposite, there is currently an oversupply of both materials. Galaxy is actually about to wind back production, as prices are falling.

    https://thewest.com.au/business/min...miners-wait-for-china-recharge-ng-b881362005z

    Everything has got a bit ahead of the demand curve, as it usually does, except for nickel which reserves are down to less than a months supply at current usage .
     
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  8. Country Lad

    Country Lad Off into the sunset

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    Having had a lot to do with both State and Federal govts and knowing how they operate, I would say that many of the deniers in government are likely very aware of the problems. However, to say so publicly would mean they would need to take some action and that is just too hard for them. So, as politicians do, ignore the difficult issues and leave it for the next bunch. And so it goes on as it always has.
     
  9. explod

    explod explod

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    As I wander around China it certainly appears the opposite ATM, what is being done takes awhile.

    They have realised the problem but we are doing nothing.
     
  10. Jack Aubrey

    Jack Aubrey Very inexperienced trader

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    Yes. How good is Lithium? I've been looking at the international majors, including Galaxy, and none have broken a very solid two year downtrend in SP except, possibly, Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. (1772.HK) which is a battery manufacturer and has one of the biggest operating brine extraction and processing plants in Argentina (and is obviously one that can make direct use of the stockpile).

    The other biggies, like Tianqi Lithium Corporation (002466.SZ) and Albermale Corp (ALB) have not broken the trend but are showing (possible) signs of life at their lows. These two jointly own Talison Lithium Pty Ltd., with the big Greenbushes Mine in Western Australia. Albermale is also constructing a Lithium Hydroxide conversion plant in Perth.

    There doesn't seem to be a good index for comparisons but I use GLOBAL LITHIUM ETF (LIT) as a general guide.

    In the absence of good data on metal sales, there's a lot of rumour around about the size and quality of the global stockpile and the future demand for high quality supply. With Chinese EV production predicted to have between 24% and 30% year-on-year growth (depending on your source), there does seem to be cause for cautious optimism, but I'm not about to leap into anything this year. The Lithium market is much more complex than most other metals.

    As noted above, I'm new to this and probably off my tree.
     
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  11. basilio

    basilio

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    For what it's worth I have a small interest in Talgas resources TLG.

    The have a graphite mine that is producing nearly pure graphene and are developing a wide range of technologies in improving battery performance.

    In theory I think they are underpriced.:cautious:

    They also have a large cobalt find.
    http://www.talgaresources.com/IRM/content/default.aspx
     
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  12. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    Actually plod, that isn't exactly right, we are putting in renewables faster per capita, than any other Country.
    There are currently 133GW of renewables in the pipeline to be installed, which is over 2 times the grid on the East coast, it can't be installed because we can't use it as smurf has said heaps of times, they are currently working on hydrogen plant design and storage/transport solutions and pumped storage/ battery storage for domestic generation.
    https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsev...coal-fired-generation-earlier-than-predicted/
    From the article:
    A total of 39.4 GW of capacity has been added year-to-date. Utility solar accounts for 54% of this, whereas utility storage and utility wind account for 25% and 21%, respectively .

    There are currently two massive H2 plants proposed for W.A.
    I guess that doesn't all fit in with the media's ridiculous agenda, but it does facilitate the chanters going on endlessly about something they have very little grasp of, but that is usually the way of bored people looking for a cause to go on about if it wasn't this it would be something else.
    Now you will be able to put people straight, on what a great job we are doing, rather than running our valiant efforts down maybe drop the press a line.:xyxthumbs
    Anyway, hope you are having a great holiday in China and don't worry Australia is in safe hands, no brain farts happening nor any pandering to lobby groups.:roflmao:
     
  13. SirRumpole

    SirRumpole

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    Just a slow decline into mediocrity and irrelevance.

    Lobby groups like the miners and farmers you mean ? :rolleyes:
     
  14. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    Whe are discussing renewables not our education system.:D
    Or batt suppliers, solar installers, telecommunication companies etc.:p
     
  15. SirRumpole

    SirRumpole

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    No, you made a political statement and I made one in return. :cool:

    By a lot of economic measures this country is stuffed as has been said before, but I'll leave that for another thread.
     
  16. Jack Aubrey

    Jack Aubrey Very inexperienced trader

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    I know nothing about graphite/graphene but the TLG chart looks Very Interesting! Thanks for the heads up.
     
  17. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    Everyone is making this a political statement, that is what drives me mad, as smurf has said it is a technical issue and not a simple one that any Government could fix.
    All that would happen if the Government got involved, would be some industry section would find a way of milking whatever was put in place, anyway it seems to be going o.k amazingly IMO.
    Anyway I will but out, just thought I would give people the heads up, on how much is actually happening on the renewable front, pretty unbelievable how quickly it is happening IMO.
     
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  18. Jack Aubrey

    Jack Aubrey Very inexperienced trader

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    While looking into EV/battery metals, Vanadium is often mentioned as a likely contender. 86% of the global Vanadium supply is currently going into various steel products (like rebar). Only 5% is being used to produce Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries which are emerging as a solution to large scale energy storage. There are serious environmental issues associated with Vanadium production and China is closing a number of existing facilities in an effort to clean things up.
    Three small cap pure Vanadium Australian companies I have on my watchlist are:

    ASX:TMT MC 11.81M Technology Metals Australia Ltd
    ASX:TNG MC 95.6M TNG Limited
    ASX:AVL MC 36.7M Australian Vanadium Ltd

    They are all at longterm lows and don't seem to be showing any TA signs of reversals.

    The big problem I see with Vanadium as an investment is that it is a plentiful mineral by-product of other mining operations and metals processing (particularly iron ore). This means (perhaps only in my mind) that there are readily available supplies lying around in spoil and slag heaps under the ownership of major miners and producers. If the battery market seriously expanded, those supplies could be liberated fairly easily. Smaller, pure Vanadium plays MAY be more nimble in increasing supply and have (some) existing offtakes, but their upside would eventually be limited as these accessible "reserves" were brought online and the majors exploited a growing market.

    Just thoughts.
     
  19. Sdajii

    Sdajii Sdaji

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    How many people do you know today who are using a 15 year old television??? 15 years ago most people still had CRT tellies. You can't say today's televisions last 15 years when they haven't been around for 15 years. About 10-12 years ago when everyone was dumping their old CRTs and replacing them with LCDs and plasmas they were buying early models, most of which have now already been replaced.

    If you actually want to look at 15 years ago, we were looking at the very early generation plasmas. The early generation plasmas which were the envy of their proud owners' friends around 15 years ago died very very quickly and people were upset about them being basically impossible to repair.

    It's probably true that the tellies people are buying today will be obsolete within around 5 years and replaced whether they die or not, which brings us back to the issue of the throwaway society.
     
  20. SirRumpole

    SirRumpole

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    Me. :)

    It's an LED one that fingers crossed keeps working even though it's basically left on all the time.

    OK it's a bit outdated I don't think it will take 4k, but I might be wrong. Anyway it does what I want it to do and I'm not about to throw it away.
     
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