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Inflation

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Powell's giving his half-yearly testimony. Republicans are on a tear. He's not wrong about this though - the yanks are the best/most insulated country probably outside of norway and the arabs.

Doesn't mean the situation's exactly "good" though, it's just the best of a bad bunch.

Biggest curveball still remains the U.S president curtailing some or all of yank oil exports.
 
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The oil companies all getting together and conspiring not to drill, up supply etc etc isn't exactly unrealistic either.

There's a reason why GUSH hasn't followed NRGU nearly as high.
the PROBLEM is a concerted effort by ( MAJOR ) banksters NOT to fund fossil fuel projects ( that includes SOME fund managers ) ( look no further that the WEF 'chat ' featuring Mark Carney on how bankers were going to push forward the climate agenda


some those already producing ( and to some extent those with capped future producers ) can probably get by via revenue , retail shareholders , and the higher risk-taking financial instos

now IF there is any conspiracy , it would be discussing future funding and demand ( and viability of developing new assets )


The oil embargo involving Russia will eventually fade. Russians continue to export oil to China and India.
Russia will NEVER sell to those ' unfriendly nations ' again once contracts need renewal , they are dud , deadbeat customers , they never reform ( they are proven debt-addicts ) , they just aren't worth talking to
Not sure if buying the dip is going to be wise.
i have been ( mostly ) lucky in oil and gas ( TEG being the millstone ) , rather than skilled , i am unlikely to be adding to the holdings ( except via DRP ) unless in exceptional circumstances ( like BPT near 40 cents again )
 
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Powell's giving his half-yearly testimony. Republicans are on a tear. He's not wrong about this though - the yanks are the best/most insulated country probably outside of norway and the arabs.

Doesn't mean the situation's exactly "good" though, it's just the best of a bad bunch.

Biggest curveball still remains the U.S president curtailing some or all of yank oil exports.
the Yanks need to lock their administrations in rubber rooms
 
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I think the true driver behind this is that western governments want fossil fuel prices to keep increasing forever until nobody is left on the planet able or willing to buy it.

The only constraint is to avoid total economic collapse causing widespread anarchy and public uprising directly against own governments.

The juggling act is keeping the pain going just enough to prevent chaos while forcing the transition to renewables.

There's no problem to fix, we are this way on purpose and will continue down this path until we have transitioned completely to renewables and most likely full socialism.
Watch out,if you carry on,you will be called a crazy conspiracy madman...
Been there done that. But fully agree,it is called the Reset....
 
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all my life , but the part that really irritates , is my total lack of empathy for those detractors ( when i am right )
Trouble is being right does not prevent the ongoing damages.
I have no joy seeing people killed or maimed by their Pfizer shots for example, losing wealth on inflation or moving into ghetto trailer parks now renamed tiny houses by our woke world.... just most recent local news.
What always remains is greed power and stupidity...most economic and finance moves can be sourced back to these.
 
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Trouble is being right does not prevent the ongoing damages.
I have no joy seeing people killed or maimed by their Pfizer shots for example, losing wealth on inflation or moving into ghetto trailer parks now renamed tiny houses by our woke world.... just most recent local news.
What always remains is greed power and stupidity...most economic and finance moves can be sourced back to these.
but they don't listen , or even think for themselves FIRST ,

every now and again i can help one or two people go forward , i might as well give them a nudge in a positive direction

they don't have to listen to me there are a ( relatively ) few others , that will warn about the same thing ( and they have been at it for decades , NOT weeks or years )
 
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Watch out,if you carry on,you will be called a crazy conspiracy madman...
Been there done that. But fully agree,it is called the Reset....
Conspiracy theory might as well be called spoiler alerts or future facts given the last few years.

Pretty much every politician boasts about what I said in a global shift toward renewables, having trouble seeing how anyone would think it's conspiracy theory.
 

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Perfect summary. Also seasonality heading into winter. Where is the bottom? Hard to say. The last two years it's been around october, but things haven't really been "normal" lately.

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Lots of dip buys to grab though ;)
 
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JPowell seemed upbeat in his testimony. Not like he had a choice though, so unless it's obvious, he isn't going to admit a recession is incoming.
IMO we should be guided by data to see where this lands. UK, Canada and Japan have all released inflation numbers. None reported significant decreases despite IR hikes.
EU, German and French CPI is being released next week, along with the US GDPNow figures on Monday. This will give us more of an idea about whether or not we're going to need bigger hikes for a longer duration and whether the US economy is tracking towards recession.
Interestingly, economists and banks are now forecasting a recession.
 

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Powell's comments yesterday were "recession not inevitable". Green markets outside of banks & oil were the result. We shall see.

Nobody has any confidence in the banks - they seem to go nowhere no matter what else is going on.
 

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A large case of something becoming "prohibitively expensive".

Interdastingly, when you look at the rollover in bonds, rate hike bets, oil prices etc etc etc it does look like we might have finally gotten somewhere near a bottom. There was a nice bounce at open on tuesday and it's actually remained (markets are flat since). With futures well into the green we might actually have a positive week for a change.
 
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Powell's comments yesterday were "recession not inevitable". Green markets outside of banks & oil were the result. We shall see.

Nobody has any confidence in the banks - they seem to go nowhere no matter what else is going on.
the BIG banks , true .. but SOME smaller banks ( in Australia and elsewhere ) still have some potential growth paths ( included the regularly touted mergers )

since Powell and his henchmen keep redefining terms ( seemingly at whim ) i have no confidence in MOST Central Banks , they are saying 'whatever it takes ' and hoping confidence trickery will work
 
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Nobody has any confidence in the banks - they seem to go nowhere no matter what else is going on.

the BIG banks , true .. but SOME smaller banks ( in Australia and elsewhere ) still have some potential growth paths ( included the regularly touted mergers )
In Australia the BIG banks are quasi Government institutions, so they just follow the economic sentiment, somewhat like Telstra.
I personally can't see a recession happening, unless there is a massive influx of labour from overseas, if the floodgates open well then IMO it is another recession we had to have.
 
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A large case of something becoming "prohibitively expensive".

Interdastingly, when you look at the rollover in bonds, rate hike bets, oil prices etc etc etc it does look like we might have finally gotten somewhere near a bottom. There was a nice bounce at open on tuesday and it's actually remained (markets are flat since). With futures well into the green we might actually have a positive week for a change.
I Agree! re INFLATION!
Am I missing out on something?

Which Commodity is at its High this Weekend?

Tough Talk from the Fed Works!
It's All We Need

IMHO The Inflation Game is Over
Very Small Interest Rates hikes from next month
Steady as She goes

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