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Inflation

over9k

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Here's a post of absolute hilarity for you lads:


Rising energy costs are effecting spare cash for absolutely everything but apparently outside of crypto the single biggest crash we've seen is in, get this, ONLYFANS SUBSCRIPTIONS.

Apparently the rising costs of living are starting to bite so much that simps the world over are having to cancel their monthly few bucks to their favourite thot as they now need to free up the cash to pay their bills and the poor girls have seen their "revenue" drop by more than half.


"The plunging economy has been hard on one particular sector — sex workers who say that decades-high inflation has forced their clients to cut back on discretionary spending.

Allie Rae, a 38-year-old Massachusetts woman who left her $84,000-a-year nursing job to earn a monthly six-figure income on OnlyFans, told The Post on Friday that she and other online creators have seen their incomes take a hit recently.

“Many top creators are hurting really bad,” Rae said. “It’s definitely something that’s happening.”

Rae, who during the pandemic earned as much as $200,000 a month, told The Post that her income has fallen 25% in recent weeks. Other OnlyFans performers have seen their incomes drop by as much as 50%, she said.

“My traffic has been down a lot,” she said. “I’m working harder than I have ever been.




The humanity!

Won't someone think of the thots?
 
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Half our current predicament was caused by the russian invasion. This isn't to say things weren't inflating before, but they really took off with the sanctions (cutoff) of russian oil.

Half our current predicament was caused by the russian invasion. This isn't to say things weren't inflating before, but they really took off with the sanctions (cutoff) of russian oil.
There are those who look for reasons as to why markets move..... I am not one of them. Nevertheless it never ceases to amaze over and over again the timing of geo political and even short term fundemental events with price pattern formations and cycles.
In this case this pattern had been forming for quite a while ( have a look at the earlier posted charts on your favourite proprty price thread) and long before the war. This was going to happen either way, with or without a war. If it was not the war it would have been something else
 
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THE SUPER CYCLE HAS RETURNED​




now i would suggest the super-cycle is already here , and i wonder if it is close to peaking for some commodities
 
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RBA Governor Lowe has admitted that the RBA has suffered reputational damage in The Australian
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to target a bond yield in the future after suffering “reputational damage” from a “disorderly” exit from the policy last year, a review of the program has found.
Bond purchases are likely to be the preferred way of insuring against “very bad economic outcomes” at a time when the already low level of interest rates limited the scope for lowering the cash rate.

While the yield curve target succeeded in achieving its objectives of lowering funding costs and supporting the provision of credit to the economy, “the exit in late 2021 was disorderly and associated with bond market volatility and some dislocation in the market.”
A target for the yield on three-year Australian government bonds of 0.25 per cent was set on March 19 2020. The policy was abandoned in November 2021 amid sustained upward pressure on the yield in the market as traders bet that interest rates would rise.
Unfortunately, he does seem to be continuing down an unsustainable path.
From The Australian

RBA governor Philip Lowe has played down fears that climbing interest rates here and abroad will send Australia into a recession.

"I don’t see a recession on the horizon here," Dr Lowe told an event in Sydney this morning.

"At the moment the unemployment rate is the lowest in 50 years. The participation rate is the highest ever. There are more working Australians who have jobs than ever before. Households have strong balance sheets. Our terms of trade are at the highest ever, which is really boosting our national income," he said.

"But if the last two years have taught us anything, it’s that you can’t rule anything out. Our fundamentals are strong and firms are trying to hire people at record rates. It doesn’t feel like a precursor to a recession."

Dr Lowe also warned that wages growth of above 3 per cent risked entrenching higher inflation over the longer term, which would necessitate a slower economy and maybe rising unemployment to bring it back under control.

The RBA governor would not be drawn on whether the decision to deliver a 5.2 per cent minimum wage increase risked pushing inflation higher, but he said he wanted Australians to "keep in mind" that the ideal level of wages growth was around 3.5 per cent.

"In the 1970s wages growth responded mechanically to the higher inflation rate. I’m hopeful we can avoid that, but it's an important issues. (So) 3.5 per cent (wage growth) is better than 2, and it's better than 5."
NSW just announced a pre election budget that has tripled the deficit to 11.3 billion, with heroic forecasts that it will return to surplus mid decade. Yeah, in ya dreams Kean.
Every other state is running deficits, plus with all the spending announced by the new Federal government likely to further increase an already deficit heavy federal budget, how can he not expect inflation to just keep going up?
Wages pressure is rife, and with so few people looking for work, employees can be safe that they can get a good wage rise either with their existing employer or with another one.
As for recession, with all the government spending, we may avoid one, but it will likely be one of those "technical recessions".
Similar to "transitonary inflation".
Mick
 
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RBA Governor Lowe has admitted that the RBA has suffered reputational damage in The Australian

Unfortunately, he does seem to be continuing down an unsustainable path.
From The Australian


NSW just announced a pre election budget that has tripled the deficit to 11.3 billion, with heroic forecasts that it will return to surplus mid decade. Yeah, in ya dreams Kean.
Every other state is running deficits, plus with all the spending announced by the new Federal government likely to further increase an already deficit heavy federal budget, how can he not expect inflation to just keep going up?
Wages pressure is rife, and with so few people looking for work, employees can be safe that they can get a good wage rise either with their existing employer or with another one.
As for recession, with all the government spending, we may avoid one, but it will likely be one of those "technical recessions".
Similar to "transitonary inflation".
Mick
aren't the other states ( apart from NSW ) governed by the ALP ?? , if so history shows those other states will run a deficit UNLESS they sell off some major assets

unless it is truly different this time wages never catch up to inflation , even when inflation cools down ( pension rises normally lag as well )

wages normally get the blame , but usually it is government and Central Bank policies/regulations that are the primary cause , but wage rises are the only costs businesses can resist the increases , by either cutting staff or hours worked
 
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aren't the other states ( apart from NSW ) governed by the ALP ?? , if so history shows those other states will run a deficit UNLESS they sell off some major assets

unless it is truly different this time wages never catch up to inflation , even when inflation cools down ( pension rises normally lag as well )

wages normally get the blame , but usually it is government and Central Bank policies/regulations that are the primary cause , but wage rises are the only costs businesses can resist the increases , by either cutting staff or hours worked
The shade of political party is immaterial, they all are in deficit bar WA.
Pretty much all governments have embraced the MMT theory
They are all followers of the mantra that "Deficits don't matter".
Until they do.
Mick
 

over9k

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There are those who look for reasons as to why markets move..... I am not one of them. Nevertheless it never ceases to amaze over and over again the timing of geo political and even short term fundemental events with price pattern formations and cycles.
In this case this pattern had been forming for quite a while ( have a look at the earlier posted charts on your favourite proprty price thread) and long before the war. This was going to happen either way, with or without a war. If it was not the war it would have been something else
Perhaps putin deliberately did it at a time when he knew the sanctions would be the most painful (and therefore least likely) to implement?
 
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I'm actually quite interested to see what they're going to do with this sh!tshow to be honest.
blame somebody else .. just like always

by the way , the only tested and proven way out is for a MAJOR war , to distract and embarrass those poor fools who lent the government money

WHAT ISN'T FALLING APART? W/JOHN RUBINO 6 20 22​


 

over9k

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The chief executive of Kuwait’s state oil company said a $30 per barrel “war premium” has been built into the cost of oil.

“I see a war premium of about $30 in the price right now,” Kuwait Petroleum Corp.’s Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah told Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of the Qatar Economic forum on Tuesday. There’s little sign of demand destruction in oil markets because of high prices, although growth is slowing.

Oil prices have soared almost 50% this year to around $110 a barrel, mainly because of the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Exxon Mobil Corp. said Tuesday in Doha oil markets may remain tight for three to five years largely due to under-investment since the pandemic began.

Kuwait Petroleum’s CEO also said European buyers are asking about more refined oil from the country, partly in anticipation of its Al Zour refinery coming fully onstream. “We’re getting more calls for products,” he said. “By the end of the year, we’ll have about 615,000 barrels of oil a day being converted into mostly diesel and very low sulphur fuel oil.”...

Exxon Mobil Corp. said global oil markets may remain tight for another three to five years largely because of a lack of investment since the pandemic began.

It’ll take time for oil firms to “catch up” on the investments needed to ensure there’s enough oil supply, Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said at the Qatar Economic Forum on Tuesday...

Woods was speaking in Qatar, which is among the world’s biggest exporters of liquefied natural gas and one of few nations that can substantially replace Russian gas supplies to Europe. Firms including ConocoPhillips are investing in a $29 billion project to boost Doha’s exports.

Exxon is one of the bidders and Qatari Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi, speaking alongside Woods, said the US firm would get a stake. The project is one of the largest in the gas industry and state-controlled Qatar Energy is scheduled to formally announce the deal with Exxon later on Tuesday.



Looking like a good time to buy some GUSH ;)
 
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From the geniuses who bought you "transitory inflation", may I present - 🥁 roll "recession is not inevitable".

The chief executive of Kuwait’s state oil company said a $30 per barrel “war premium” has been built into the cost of oil.

“I see a war premium of about $30 in the price right now,” Kuwait Petroleum Corp.’s Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah told Bloomberg TV on the sidelines of the Qatar Economic forum on Tuesday. There’s little sign of demand destruction in oil markets because of high prices, although growth is slowing.

Oil prices have soared almost 50% this year to around $110 a barrel, mainly because of the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Exxon Mobil Corp. said Tuesday in Doha oil markets may remain tight for three to five years largely due to under-investment since the pandemic began.

Kuwait Petroleum’s CEO also said European buyers are asking about more refined oil from the country, partly in anticipation of its Al Zour refinery coming fully onstream. “We’re getting more calls for products,” he said. “By the end of the year, we’ll have about 615,000 barrels of oil a day being converted into mostly diesel and very low sulphur fuel oil.”...

Exxon Mobil Corp. said global oil markets may remain tight for another three to five years largely because of a lack of investment since the pandemic began.

It’ll take time for oil firms to “catch up” on the investments needed to ensure there’s enough oil supply, Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said at the Qatar Economic Forum on Tuesday...

Woods was speaking in Qatar, which is among the world’s biggest exporters of liquefied natural gas and one of few nations that can substantially replace Russian gas supplies to Europe. Firms including ConocoPhillips are investing in a $29 billion project to boost Doha’s exports.

Exxon is one of the bidders and Qatari Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi, speaking alongside Woods, said the US firm would get a stake. The project is one of the largest in the gas industry and state-controlled Qatar Energy is scheduled to formally announce the deal with Exxon later on Tuesday.



Looking like a good time to buy some GUSH ;)
Haven't these people heard of the green revolution?

They will be all out of business with zero demand for their filthy oil because solar panels, electric cars and stuff.
 

over9k

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From the geniuses who bought you "transitory inflation", may I present - 🥁 roll "recession is not inevitable".

Haven't these people heard of the green revolution?

They will be all out of business with zero demand for their filthy oil because solar panels, electric cars and stuff.
The more people keep thinking this the better - just take a look at coal over the last 6 months ;)
 
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An interesting article from Reuters on shipping costs and the affect on inflation.
This just confirms my thought that inflation is going to continue to rise at an increasing rate.
I might be wrong but did the RBA and US Fed indicate that interest rates will be 3% by the end of 2022?
They are still behind the 8 ball with interest rates, chasing the accelerating inflation.
Even so, the shipping magnates are making a fortune.
 

over9k

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An interesting article from Reuters on shipping costs and the affect on inflation.
This just confirms my thought that inflation is going to continue to rise at an increasing rate.
I might be wrong but did the RBA and US Fed indicate that interest rates will be 3% by the end of 2022?
They are still behind the 8 ball with interest rates, chasing the accelerating inflation.
Even so, the shipping magnates are making a fortune.
The speculation was 4% by the end of the year. Lowe says it's "unlikely".
 
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An interesting article from Reuters on shipping costs and the affect on inflation.
This just confirms my thought that inflation is going to continue to rise at an increasing rate.
I might be wrong but did the RBA and US Fed indicate that interest rates will be 3% by the end of 2022?
They are still behind the 8 ball with interest rates, chasing the accelerating inflation.
Even so, the shipping magnates are making a fortune.

i saw ( at one stage ) RBA rates to 2.5% ( with 3% suggested by an analyst outside of the RBA ) by December that by the way would be 2.5% plus GST for the plebs

there is every chance RBA and Fed rates ( at current increase levels ) will only help fuel inflation ( by raising costs/reducing productivity )
 
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From the geniuses who bought you "transitory inflation", may I present - 🥁 roll "recession is not inevitable".

Haven't these people heard of the green revolution?

They will be all out of business with zero demand for their filthy oil because solar panels, electric cars and stuff.
the Rockefellers exited that business sector about 3 years ago ( and virtually nobody remembers the carnage they left behind )

BTW the Rockefellers also created the modern pharmaceutical and medical industries , since the Rockefellers now embrace 'Green' you should be running for the hills ( BIG mountains )
 
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