Inflation

[divs4ever]

Spray away?...

as i understand it ( and i could be wrong ) Powell cannot be sacked early , unless some major misconduct is proven , BUT Trump can easily decide not to extend his tenure , or renew his appointment .

let's see what happens ( Trump might have a way to convince Powell to resign/retire early )

 

[over9k]

as i understand it ( and i could be wrong ) Powell cannot be sacked early , unless some major misconduct is proven , BUT Trump can easily decide not to extend his tenure , or renew his appointment .

Precisely. Powell quits or he sees his term out, trump can't boot him until his tenure is up.

 

[moXJO]

as i understand it ( and i could be wrong ) Powell cannot be sacked early , unless some major misconduct is proven , BUT Trump can easily decide not to extend his tenure , or renew his appointment .

let's see what happens ( Trump might have a way to convince Powell to resign/retire early )

Yes has to be misconduct, buttt the Collins v Yellen and Seila vs CFPB may have provided a way to out the Fed chair. All thanks to Biden. Fed protection got a lot weaker.
Barr already jumped off. Probably didn't want to test it

 

[over9k]

For those wondering, markets are starting to get seriously concerned about the probability of default in the U.K. Higher likelihood of default = higher risk, higher risk = rates go higher to make taking said risk worth it. Alternatively, the debt is monetised (paid off with printed cash) which devalues the currency and pumps inflation so interest rates have to go up by however much the currency is debased by. Either way, rates spike.

This is not going to remain unique to the U.K.

 

[over9k]

Do you think Powell gets the arse straight and QE starts pumping?

*Straight away

Nah I reckon they'll do a passive runoff of the fed's balance sheet, they just can't expand that any more. So whoever trump appoints will keep rates lowish, inflation will probably run hotter than they want but they'll take that option on account of it causing less pain to the average punter than pumping interest rates and also effectively reduces (debases) their debt.

We'll probably even see the headlines, propaganda etc saying "inflation is high but interest rates are low, at least we're preventing americans from feeling mortgage pain as well as inflation pain, biden couldn't do either".

 

[over9k]

Only 999, and i am busy spending my hoards so my kids don't get to fight over it.
mick

Images from the last time mullok tried spending his childrens' inheritance:

 

[sptrawler]

Today's funny post.

Don’t panic – despite the headlines, the Australian dollar isn’t crashing | Greg Jericho

While our currency is lower than it’s been for a while, there is no sense of a crash. The RBA’s focus should be on the domestic economy and rate cuts

www.theguardian.com

 

[over9k]

Today's funny post.

Don’t panic – despite the headlines, the Australian dollar isn’t crashing | Greg Jericho

While our currency is lower than it’s been for a while, there is no sense of a crash. The RBA’s focus should be on the domestic economy and rate cuts

www.theguardian.com

Below 62 now

 

[divs4ever]

This is not going to remain unique to the U.K

likely to include some well-known names ( Japan being the super-obvious one , but think G20 and how many are actually financially sound , not just playing money roulette )

 

[over9k]

Accurate. "Markets have gone into a tizzy worried that U.S 5 year debt is going to hit 5% but now they've realised U.K 10 year is going to get there first".

 

[macca]

Below 62 now

Which means no interest cut.

If they do, it will sink a bit further and that will increase the price of imports so more inflationary pressure and they don't want that

then again, I haven't agreed with RBA for quite awhile so what would I know

 

[over9k]

Called it.

Blowout jobs report triggered the selloff. Bond yields have soared as well obviously.

 

[sptrawler]

It will certainly be interesting to see how the new re vamped RBA board performs, they will be tested very soon, with the upcoming rate decisions.

Having a Govt influenced super sector and a re vamped RBA, will be a new paradigm, should at least make things less boring. Lol

 

[farmerge]

It will certainly be interesting to see how the new re vamped RBA board performs, they will be tested very soon, with the upcoming rate decisions.

Having a Govt influenced super sector and a re vamped RBA, will be a new paradigm, should at least make things less boring. Lol

@sptrawler If the revamped board is not singing from the old song sheet, then it may be interesting listening to a different tune and a different drum being banged.

 

[moXJO]

So I've got a huge portfolio in $US and got that extra boost from weak $AUD.
My worry is Trump steps on the $US and weakens it.
Not sure on the timing though

 

[Smurf1976]

So I've got a huge portfolio in $US and got that extra boost from weak $AUD.
My worry is Trump steps on the $US and weakens it.
Not sure on the timing though

I've got similar thoughts although not relating to Trump personally.

Markets don't move in a straight line so we're probably due some sort of temporary reversal anyway.

In particular I note a major contrarian indicator - the mainstream media's reporting the AUD's decline.

Timing is of course uncertain but I suspect it's near.

 

[moXJO]

I've got similar thoughts although not relating to Trump personally.

Markets don't move in a straight line so we're probably due some sort of temporary reversal anyway.

In particular I note a major contrarian indicator - the mainstream media's reporting the AUD's decline.

Timing is of course uncertain but I suspect it's near.

Yeah I'm think I cycle out of $US or hedge. I was thinking this last week. Just dug a bit and Morgan Stanley seems to be recommending buying aud with a rise to .70 in the short term. Not that they are great predators. Probably should have moved last week.

 

[moXJO]

*Predictors
This spell check is doing my head in.

 

[over9k]

Accurate. The U.K is backed into a corner. Which means higher inflation.

 

[over9k]

Big new sanctions coming in on russian oil/energy.

A dead giveaway that they've gotten the alternatives sorted and are preparing to cut them off completely.