Inflation

[over9k]

My man, you have balls of steel

I actually have a general rule to make a degen play on anything that moves by double digits on the day unless it's some kind of catastrophic let-it-burn type of thing.

 

[over9k]

ECB raises by 50 points exactly like it said it would, states "will not deviate from forward guidance unless an extreme scenario". Does not signal any more, i.e forward guidance says they're going to stay right where they are. Acknowledges a "crisis of confidence" in the inflation fight. Euro plummets in response.

Larry summers still throwing bombs from the sidelines saying inflation needs to be brought under control "even if it means recession". Jay pelosky now saying that the "fight for 2% inflation in the U.S has been lost because we can't achieve it without wrecking the economy". Expects a 25 point rate at the next meeting but "not expecting a cut like the market is pricing in". Basically exactly what I've been saying for weeks.

Not exactly a hot take.

 

[over9k]

View attachment 154377

Five days. Fastest in history. Toot toot.

CPI drops in three minutes.

Result, we go from this:



To this:



Absurdity has not yet left the chat.

 

[waterbottle]

Result, we go from this:

View attachment 154498

To this:

View attachment 154499

Absurdity has not yet left the chat.

Several tech stonks breaking 1 month resistance too.
Markets must love the bank plans, not sure if they're expecting JPowell to pause though

 

[over9k]

They're all off the boil after this little nugget from the zuck however.

It's a very long winded way of saying STRUCTURAL DECLINE.

 

[over9k]

Several tech stonks breaking 1 month resistance too.
Markets must love the bank plans, not sure if they're expecting JPowell to pause though

Currently betting on 25 points. The real thing to pay attention to is if they signal any pauses after this next rise. If so, growth plays will be back in favour.

So do I make a growth play now. Hmmmmm.

 

[waterbottle]

Currently betting on 25 points. The real thing to pay attention to is if they signal any pauses after this next rise. If so, growth plays will be back in favour.

So do I make a growth play now. Hmmmmm.

Really though? Maybe for a short term play.
Most hiking cycles end in a recession, unless they manage to achieve the elusive soft landing.

 

[waterbottle]

Biggest banks to infuse First Republic with $30 billion to stabilize troubled lender

Banking giants led by JPMorgan and Bank of America deposited $30 billion with a troubled California regional bank, in an unusual joint effort to help a rival.

finance.yahoo.com

Problem solved. JPowell has a clear runway for hikes.

 

[waterbottle]

Fed kicking the can again?

https://i.redd.it/upv3xf0v08oa1.jpg

 

[Smurf1976]

Fed kicking the can again?

https://i.redd.it/upv3xf0v08oa1.jpg

Hmm.....

These guys just can't help themselves - the Fed's balance sheet is about 10 times the size it was 15 years ago before the GFC. Once they expand it, they never do manage to shrink it again - they give it a brief go then it comes to an abrupt reversal and back up.

 

[over9k]

Now something will be done. Now things are a problem.

 

[divs4ever]

Now something will be done. Now things are a problem.

yep !!

i will skip breakfast , much like i have done for the past six years , and will patiently wait for Mc Donald's to have a problem ( whence i will raise my cup of tea and smile )

 

[divs4ever]

Hmm.....

These guys just can't help themselves - the Fed's balance sheet is about 10 times the size it was 15 years ago before the GFC. Once they expand it, they never do manage to shrink it again - they give it a brief go then it comes to an abrupt reversal and back up.

sadly , i suspected as much

 

[farmerge]

Currently betting on 25 points. The real thing to pay attention to is if they signal any pauses after this next rise. If so, growth plays will be back in favour.

So do I make a growth play now. Hmmmmm.

My man in the mirror says Nay but he has been horribly wrong before also.

 

[farmerge]

yep !!

i will skip breakfast , much like i have done for the past six years , and will patiently wait for Mc Donald's to have a problem ( whence i will raise my cup of tea and smile )

Ah good wholesome food if a clean-out is required.

 

[mullokintyre]

yep !!

i will skip breakfast , much like i have done for the past six years , and will patiently wait for Mc Donald's to have a problem ( whence i will raise my cup of tea and smile )

Happy for Maccas (the restaurant chain, not the ASF member!) to die, will greatly boost my CKF shares.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

Happy for Maccas (the restaurant chain, not the ASF member!) to die, will greatly boost my CKF shares.
Mick

have so far , resisted buying into this niche ( RFG , RBD , CKF , DMP ) the closest i got was buying into Tegel's ( TGH ) which has been taken-over since

cheers

 

[waterbottle]

What?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[farmerge]

Happy for Maccas (the restaurant chain, not the ASF member!) to die, will greatly boost my CKF shares.
Mick

Whats the chance of either happening???

 

[farmerge]

Happy for Maccas (the restaurant chain, not the ASF member!) to die, will greatly boost my CKF shares.
Mick

Mr Mullo I presume you mean KFC. Both lots rubbish food