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Inflation related political and economic instability

greggles

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The world seems completely on edge at the moment, and not just because of the war in Ukraine. Although the war seems to have exacerbated issues that had already bubbled to the surface.

Rapid inflation and a rising oil price has been increasing food insecurity, especially in the developing world where most people are on limited incomes and are particularly vulnerable to rising prices. Although those on low incomes in first world countries have also been feeling the pinch. The war in Ukraine has the potential to turn things even more violent as millions of people struggle to survive. Famine may emerge in the poorest of nation where corruption is endemic and food is scarce at the best of times.

Riots and looting are starting to occur and revolutions could easily follow if conditions don't improve.



Where is this headed? There is no clue about when the war in Ukraine will end, but even if it does in the next few months the global food chain has been severely disrupted and things will not return to normal anytime soon. Are we entering an extended period of global political and economic turmoil as the cost of food, fuel and housing rise above what many people in a growing number of countries are able to afford?

If so, what kind of impact will this have on the global economy and will market volatility increase as political and economic stability starts to crumble?
 
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The world seems completely on edge at the moment, and not just because of the war in Ukraine. Although the war seems to have exacerbated issues that had already bubbled to the surface.

Rapid inflation and a rising oil price has been increasing food insecurity, especially in the developing world where most people are on limited incomes and are particularly vulnerable to rising prices. Although those on low incomes in first world countries have also been feeling the pinch. The war in Ukraine has the potential to turn things even more violent as millions of people struggle to survive. Famine may emerge in the poorest of nation where corruption is endemic and food is scarce at the best of times.

Riots and looting are starting to occur and revolutions could easily follow if conditions don't improve.



Where is this headed? There is no clue about when the war in Ukraine will end, but even if it does in the next few months the global food chain has been severely disrupted and things will not return to normal anytime soon. Are we entering an extended period of global political and economic turmoil as the cost of food, fuel and housing rise above what many people in a growing number of countries are able to afford?

If so, what kind of impact will this have on the global economy and will market volatility increase as political and economic stability starts to crumble?

I am not optimistic, and as the USD world power is disintegrating, the world economy will go to the proverbial.
Ukraine just pushed a trigger, but the lack of cheap oil due to the search for green economy, size of world population. And inability to fix the economy post GFC by CBs made us all vulnerable to a major world crisis.
No cheap oil means no cheap fertiliser..forgot that Greta?
And so expensive and less food.
Add inflation overall and the average guy is poorer even before specific food items are included.
Good luck
 
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I sm not optimistic, and as the USD world power is disintegrating, the world economy will go to the proverbial.
Ukraine just pushed a trigger, but the lack of cheap oil due to the search for green economy, size of world population. And inability to fix the economy post GFC by CB make us all vulnerable to a major world crisis.
No cheap oil means no cheap fertiliser..forgot that Greta?
And so expensive and less food.
Add inflation overall and the average guy is poorer even before specific food item included.
Good luck
I follow currently riots in Sri Lanka, Peru, some movement starting in Africa, Pakistan upheaval.
We should keep a keen eye on Indonesia here in Oz.
 

Garpal Gumnut

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The world seems completely on edge at the moment, and not just because of the war in Ukraine. Although the war seems to have exacerbated issues that had already bubbled to the surface.

Rapid inflation and a rising oil price has been increasing food insecurity, especially in the developing world where most people are on limited incomes and are particularly vulnerable to rising prices. Although those on low incomes in first world countries have also been feeling the pinch. The war in Ukraine has the potential to turn things even more violent as millions of people struggle to survive. Famine may emerge in the poorest of nation where corruption is endemic and food is scarce at the best of times.

Riots and looting are starting to occur and revolutions could easily follow if conditions don't improve.



Where is this headed? There is no clue about when the war in Ukraine will end, but even if it does in the next few months the global food chain has been severely disrupted and things will not return to normal anytime soon. Are we entering an extended period of global political and economic turmoil as the cost of food, fuel and housing rise above what many people in a growing number of countries are able to afford?

If so, what kind of impact will this have on the global economy and will market volatility increase as political and economic stability starts to crumble?

Thanks for that prescient post.

There are some good articles on the deglobalisation (DG) of markets in the overseas financial newspapers, FT and WSJ attributing DG in a significant part to food and energy insecurity.

The thinking is that rather than a fragmentation, there will be a fracturing in to five or six trading blocks.

The poor and powerless, as you say, will suffer though.

I'm all in favour of revolutions for the better but the usual pattern in Africa, S.America and Asia is for a bigger mf to follow on from the existing dictator.

gg
 

Dona Ferentes

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I'm all in favour of revolutions for the better but the usual pattern in Africa, S.America and Asia is for a bigger mf to follow on from the existing dictator.
Am assuming the Asia category includes the Middle East. I hold some hope for civil societies in SE Asia.

There will be the usual displacement stories, of the tired and the poor voting with their feet, turning up at borders and demanding the services on offer but finding it hard to abandon the cultural norms that got them in the pickle in the first place.

and a quote from elsewhere
We need to come to terms with this new geopolitical reality. You need to watch Russian TV to see the depth of delusion and distortion.

You need, also, to watch the scenes in Shanghai where a city of 25 million is in a zero-COVID lockdown. Government drones fly around the city telling its residents to, and I quote, “control your soul’s desire for freedom. Do not open the window or sing.”
The source of this last gem was not given, but it seems plausible. And counterproductive. There are riots in Shanghai. Plus , from the BBC;
"Meanwhile, a video showing a worker in a hazmat costume beating a dog to death with a shovel has caused revulsion online.
The dog's owner had reportedly been taken to quarantine after testing positive for Covid and had left the pet outside in the hope that it would survive
."
 

wayneL

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Y'all watching the bond markets? Yield curves?

As quite a few macro dudes have been spruiking, yields are going to blow up and take everything out with them.

Are we at critical mass with the first few Neutrons heading straight for it?
 

greggles

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I follow currently riots in Sri Lanka, Peru, some movement starting in Africa, Pakistan upheaval.
We should keep a keen eye on Indonesia here in Oz.

Pakistan is getting worse and Sri Lanka and Egypt are becoming hot spots too. In many countries people are demanding wage increases to counter inflation, not understanding that most companies aren't making more profit, it's just that their input costs have increased. We could easily see some revolutions because of this. Freedom is one thing, but not being able to feed your family is something far more essential. Violence will follow as a consequence.
 

Garpal Gumnut

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Pakistan is getting worse and Sri Lanka and Egypt are becoming hot spots too. In many countries people are demanding wage increases to counter inflation, not understanding that most companies aren't making more profit, it's just that their input costs have increased. We could easily see some revolutions because of this. Freedom is one thing, but not being able to feed your family is something far more essential. Violence will follow as a consequence.
To be honest I am suffering "Concern Fatigue".

There is so much bad stuff happening out there I believe Australia should just hunker down, look after those who are doing it hard here and ensure that we don't end up with Rooarchs in control because of Liberal/National corruption nor Gretelozzies stinting growth and thought because of the distancing of the ALP from working people.

An inflation cycle is inevitable, but the concentration of wealth and political correctness in the Southern states is obscene, as is the wages for ordinary workers.

gg
 
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The world seems completely on edge at the moment, and not just because of the war in Ukraine. Although the war seems to have exacerbated issues that had already bubbled to the surface.

Rapid inflation and a rising oil price has been increasing food insecurity, especially in the developing world where most people are on limited incomes and are particularly vulnerable to rising prices. Although those on low incomes in first world countries have also been feeling the pinch. The war in Ukraine has the potential to turn things even more violent as millions of people struggle to survive. Famine may emerge in the poorest of nation where corruption is endemic and food is scarce at the best of times.

Riots and looting are starting to occur and revolutions could easily follow if conditions don't improve.



Where is this headed? There is no clue about when the war in Ukraine will end, but even if it does in the next few months the global food chain has been severely disrupted and things will not return to normal anytime soon. Are we entering an extended period of global political and economic turmoil as the cost of food, fuel and housing rise above what many people in a growing number of countries are able to afford?

If so, what kind of impact will this have on the global economy and will market volatility increase as political and economic stability starts to crumble?


The situation is deteriorating rapidly. I can understand "concern fatigue" . I can't follow the news these days becasue it is so bleak.
Having said that we and our Governments have to take on board the issues and one way of another deal with them. I cannot see how Australia will escape the consequences. I cannot see how most people will not feel the pinch.

But feeling pinched is not the same as starvation, destitution or destruction. So maybe we should try and count our blessings and make lemonade (or potash, wheat, ect)

The perfect storm

The ripple effects of concurrent crises are leading the world on a path to crushing hunger — and the possibility of more war.

By political correspondent Brett Worthington

Updated 28 Jul 2022, 6:46am
Published 28 Jul 2022, 5:49am

A brutal invasion in Eastern Europe, a chemical industry facing an unprecedented crisis and climate change threatening to slash crop yields across the globe.

There’s a perfect storm that’s threatening food supplies to millions of people with a whole continent facing widespread hunger.

 
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Well there is still the only time tested and proven strategy left when all else in the economy fails..... World War.



Pundits already claim we are at a higher risk of nuclear attack today than in the entire cold war era.

 
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well the major economies need to distract from all that debt and Moneypox ain't working

maybe they will try the Alien ( ET type ) invasion next

those banksters will try anything and everything
 
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