Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

IIN - iiNet Limited

doctorj

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For those of you familar with ASX:IIN, they've been trading in a decent up channel for some time now. They broke resistance on the upside of their channel on the 25th (above ave. vol) and it looks as the rest of this week, in particular tomorrow will indicate whether or not this was a real break out.

IIN comes with good and bad. They're a lightly traded stock, but they do benefit from being well cashed up, having a well established brand and a reputation as innovators in their industry. They have also placed bids on MCI's Ozemail which, if successful will be the latest result of an aggressive and successful takeover program.

Their MD, Michael Malone may be inexperienced as far as Directorships go, but actually started this company in his mother's garage in the '90s and has a good rapport with shareholders and customers alike.

Here is the chart. IIN does appear worthy of further investigation from those that currently do hold.

NB. I currently do not hold IIN, but have up until recently and do intend on it in the future.
 

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No Ordinary Duck
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Re: IIN - false breakout?

doc

Certaintly looks good retest will be complete and positive with trading above $3.60 as you know.
 
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IIN - iNet Limited

IIN plumeted over the last few days to a $1.89 from around $2.60 ish. Consistantly going down from $3.44 August 2005. Really this company has good fundementals and even though the sector has taken a hit recently with T2 shares going south and others I wonder where this dive will end. Could be a good buy in the end. Anyone elses thoughts on IIN?

*I don't hold IIN, the only thing I have to do with them is that I am a residential customer :) *
 
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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

serp said:
IIN plumeted over the last few days to a $1.89 from around $2.60 ish. Consistantly going down from $3.44 August 2005. Really this company has good fundementals and even though the sector has taken a hit recently with T2 shares going south and others I wonder where this dive will end. Could be a good buy in the end. Anyone elses thoughts on IIN?

*I don't hold IIN, the only thing I have to do with them is that I am a residential customer :) *
Serp,

Don't fall in love with the fundamentals. The price is telling you all you need to know.

Snake
 
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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

I'm with Serp on this. I have been following Iinet since 2003 and this company has gone from strength to strength. Starting out as a local dial up provided in WA it is now one the largest ISP's in Australia and New Zealand.

A combination of factors and has seen the share price of Iinet plummet (I got out at $2.65 :) ) - culminating with a recent announcement that has obviously seen some nervous investors jump ship. IMO - I think the dot com bust still has a lot of investors worried about IT type companies...

Companies with good fundamentals do recover (NAB, Brambles for example) after bad news. You've just got to wait it out. I guess the hardest part is deciding when to jump back on. You dont want to leave your money in something too long if it is going sideways! Picking the trough before the eventual uptrend is also frought with peril. Thats one for the chart analyists....

Macquarie still have Iinet's price target at over $3.00 even in light of recent days events. To me a price $1.80 seems like good value, but you might have to wait a while before you take a profit.

I no longer hold Iinet but it's definitely on my radar at the moment.
 
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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

I sold my IIN shares on Nov 28 for $2.62. How lucky was I!!! I bought them for $2.80 in Oct 04 and thought they were going nowhere. Was also worried about the industry as it is highly competitive, meaning that companies get screwed on margins. While IIN is rapidly growing its customer base, its long term profitability is questionable - especially considering that Telstra will not be doing anyone any favours as it trys to rebound.
 

doctorj

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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

The drama is that TLS are changing their business model and IIN have had to renegotiate their agreements with telstra. MM released a fairly strong profit warning for '06 and '07 on the basis that only 50-60,000 DSL subscribers are currently using iiNet DSLAM's.

A few weeks ago they also stopped taking new regional subscribers in protest to Telstra's proposed fee hikes. This week they've recommenced acceptance of regional subscribers but are now only giving them access to 512k DSL at the same price the rest of us are getting 1.5mbps.

The good news is these negotiations will affect all companies. Provided iiNet comes out the otherside well enough it should afford them several acquisition opportunities.
 
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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

IINet are strong, they have a huge customer base, and are only really just getting started in telecommuncations. In my opinion(definetely not a recommendation), This is a strong buy at this price, as it will come back around next report. The big drop was due to the sale of their wireless subsidary, which is a bad thing, but it was costing them too much money. But I believe that they have a big future, not only in internet but in VOIP aswell. It may even one day be bigger than their internet operations.
Speculation of course....
Good luck to those who hold.
 
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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

Wow still on a slide to 1.72 today, I wonder how low it will go?
 

mit

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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

Looking at the chart, it has gone through the high from 2000 so there is little technically going for it at the moment.

MIT
My opinion only of course
 
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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

down another 6c today, be interested to see how low it goes. Not quite sure what is causing such a HUGE haemorrhage.
 
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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

Serp, I think braceface summed it up nicely

"culminating with a recent announcement that has obviously seen some nervous investors jump ship. IMO - I think the dot com bust still has a lot of investors worried about IT type companies..."

I like IINET and I'm expecting a slide until Dec 20 when MM make the next big announcement.

on the upside, its another reason to hate telstra! LOL
 
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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

Oh well they had a sharp bouce yesterday, be interesting to see if it will hold stable around this mark or not.

Also how do you know about the future announcements?
 

mit

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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

I took a small speculative position yesterday. The drop in volume and small range today bothers me a bit. I might get out on Monday/Tuesday unless it moves a bit.

MIT
 
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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

mit said:
I took a small speculative position yesterday. The drop in volume and small range today bothers me a bit. I might get out on Monday/Tuesday unless it moves a bit.

MIT
Went up a fair bit over the last few days than dropped nearly 10% today. Hope you got in and out alright!
 

mit

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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

Taken for a big ride up and down. I bought at $1.76 so I am a couple of cents ahead still. See what tomorrow brings.

MIT
 
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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

mit said:
Taken for a big ride up and down. I bought at $1.76 so I am a couple of cents ahead still. See what tomorrow brings.

MIT
Not looking good, still a high volume traded but still trending down.
 

mit

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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

serp said:
Not looking good, still a high volume traded but still trending down.
Hasn't hit the stop yet. I was going to sell today if it closed down. I've noticed that if a stock goes down three days in a row after some news then it is a dead duck.

So lives for another day.

MIT
 
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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

It's been yoyo'ing for the last couple of days.
 
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Re: IIN - Bounce back?

MMmm...I thought it should have recovered by now. Looks more of a long term buy now.
Will be interesting to hear what is happening with their MSAN rollout.

Where's THE ANALYST when you need him...... ;)
 
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