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Ignore this at your peril: The USA is going down

Discussion in 'International Markets' started by frugal.rock, Mar 25, 2020.

  1. frugal.rock

    frugal.rock "Time weight's on man"

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    Am going to throw this out there, as this is what I think. Take it as you will.
    I see this event as a willful and intended attack on the US financial system.
    All previous well known market crashes have not gone as hard and as fast as this one.
    Alan Kohler had a graph on the ABC a few days ago, can't find it right now. It compared the big crashes for the last century.
    We're only a bit past halfway down thus far in comparison to the other crashes.
    I expect to see a few really good sucker rallies and dumps over the next few days /weeks, before the 2nd wave hits.
    I expect the 2nd wave to take us around the bottom of the previous crashes which were all similar in depth.
    Wash, rinse, repeat of the sucker rallies...then there's the 3rd wave which I expect to breach all previous
    bottoms. The new low will be the norm.
    After that, the US won't be a financial super power anymore. Their money printing and lack of gold standard and backing will force the chickens home to roost, in broad daylight.
    They will be left as a nuclear super power only... with a near worthless dollar.
    I remain optimistic but consider the above to be a potential scenario.

    F.Rock
    PS: Hopefully I am just pissing in the wind... but with little to no manufacturing here, it's going to get ugly.
     
  2. gartley

    gartley

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    This has been a high momentum leg down so far. I think it would be fair to compare it to the first leg down if not depth ( 29 crash in US was 47% for first leg down), but faster in terms of time.
    Ofcourse at some point we will get a more sustained counter trend rally ( it may have already started) which may carry to 38.2 to 50% upward retracememt.
    The next leg down I don't will be as high momentum as this leg. It will take longer and be deeper, probably more painful ( death by a thousand cuts decline) . Similar in structure to 1929-32 , NASDAQ dot.com and Nikkei 225 bears but in a different time length.
     
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  3. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    Today Trump was saying that they will save the economy, let the oldies die basically - in 15 days its back to normal.
    ¬
     
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  4. frugal.rock

    frugal.rock "Time weight's on man"

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    Quite uncanny you mentioned death by a thousand cuts... @gartley if you know the history of it....
    F.Rock
     
  5. Smurf1976

    Smurf1976

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    I ponder how all this will play out?

    From a market perspective it seems like the sort of thing that could turn suddenly perhaps?

    So a rally starts, all going well then there's a spike in deaths and a panic that would signal the end of a bounce and the next leg down?

    I'm just thinking out loud there really.
     
  6. Smurf1976

    Smurf1976

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    I assume you're referring to torture not the song. ;)
     
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  7. frugal.rock

    frugal.rock "Time weight's on man"

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    The torture thing.
    They used to steam them too, break ankles with monkey poles, kneel for days/ nights on end etc. Very creative...
    Not a fan of Taylor.... not quite my generation :D
     
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  8. Smurf1976

    Smurf1976

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    A question for those who've lived in the US - what are the main media sources that the average American would be getting information from at present?

    I'm not looking for those which are necessarily the best or even truthful, I just want to see what the average person would be looking at and what they're saying about all this.

    I'm looking for things online obviously and only the mainstream nothing niche. What news does the average American actually look at?
     
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  9. wayneL

    wayneL Rotaredom

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    My punt is on a reset, engineered by The Fed, possibly a new currency, probably still called the dollar, with massive economic changes based loosely around the *original meaning of fascism*, and most of the liberties we are willingly giving away right now will not fully be given back.

    I'm punting on competing totalitarian blocks. Western liberalism as we know it will be dead.
     
  10. InsvestoBoy

    InsvestoBoy

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    I don't currently live there but have spent quite a lot of time there for work, including several months long stints.

    There is a big split, depending on your political leanings and conversely your information diet feeds into your political leanings. It is crazy how pronounced this politicised information landscape has become over time in the US. Really crazy.

    The main thing I would say is on the right, Fox is huge. And they do this thing where during the day it's not that bad journalism, but at night when most people watch it's insane the stuff they say. I know Sky is trying to bring that same platform to Australia, and I am so glad it isn't here yet.

    The funniest thing I think, by far, is how people who lean right think that centrist neoliberal stuff like NYT and CNN are basically raving hard left communists.

    I think this chart is pretty good depiction.
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. MovingAverage

    MovingAverage Smoke me a kipper

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    Suggest you keep an eye on Breitbart if you want the extreme right view. It has a reasonable level of influence in the US
     
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  12. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    I think that is pretty well on the money wayne, the police will be given permission to track individuals with electronic surveillance IMO and some form of money consolidation will have to happen this time.
    How it is sorted is way beyond my pay grade, but the credibility of fiat money is getting way too shaky.:2twocents
     
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  13. explod

    explod explod

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    The world is certainly turning away:-
    -
    "
    The European Union will send €20 million in humanitarian aid to Iran, which is subject to US sanctions, to help alleviate the coronavirus outbreak, and will support Tehran's request for IMF financial help, the EU's top diplomat said Monday. "

    https://www.france24.com/en/2020032...o-aid-sanctions-hit-iran-in-coronavirus-fight


    "We've not been able to provide a lot of humanitarian help but there is some €20 million in the pipeline ... that we expect to be delivered over the next weeks," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a video news conference on Monday."
     
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  14. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    China will fill the vacuum left.
     
  15. satanoperca

    satanoperca

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    What the f-k, engineered by the FED, did you get kicked in the head by a horse.
     
  16. frugal.rock

    frugal.rock "Time weight's on man"

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    Some more out loud thinking.,., historically, the US, is supposed to be an ally to Australia, however I would consider there's a large disconnect in values.
    Have personally witnessed the transformation of China from 3rd world style standards to modern western standards over the last 15 year's, still a work in progress though as it's hard to teach an old dog new tricks.
    Food hygiene, in particular, has been largely improved with every restaurant/take away now having a hygiene grading certificate plastered on their wall, after official inspection.
    I believe the program was accelerated after the melamine in baby formula fiasco, which caused the death of many infants.
    That incident alone also brought about greater scrutiny and legislation in regards to what they accepted in the way of imports.
    Thus the rise of milk products from Aus and NZ in particular, they didn't trust their own industry for a while, but also needed to fix it, due to wealth leaving the country.

    Both China and the US have influence here both economically and in physical presence, but obviously, China is our biggest trading partner.
    If it ever comes to physical war between those 2 powers, I don't see how we can be allies with either country?
    We are neutral fence sitters, otherwise our economy would fall in a heap if China decided it be that way. I don't think the US has that sort of controlling power anymore.
    Media, always let's us know about the AUD to USD, why?
    What's the relevance anymore?
    Time for a different benchmark, the financial world (outside of the US) has desired a more neutral benchmark for quite a while now...

    F.Rock
     
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  17. frugal.rock

    frugal.rock "Time weight's on man"

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    I value others opinions, what's your stance devil fish? Cheers.
    F.Rock
     
  18. Smurf1976

    Smurf1976

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    The USD is still notionally the world's reserve currency and even China currently accepts that to considerable extent.

    For how much longer is another matter......
     
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  19. frugal.rock

    frugal.rock "Time weight's on man"

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    I don't get why our dollar has fallen so much against all the major economies.
    Just see it as we're an easy target.
    The sudden drop has to be hurting our producers... having to provide more for the same etc.
    F.Rock
     
  20. wayneL

    wayneL Rotaredom

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    It's my opinion bro. It might be right, it might be wrong.

    We'll see.

    Just watch their actions... and don't be a tosser.
     
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