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IFL - IOOF Holdings

Discussion in 'Stocks I-P' started by oldblue, Jan 14, 2010.

  1. Ann

    Ann

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    ...and a chart. Other than the PVI (Positive Volume Index) which is not rising, all the other indicators are looking positive. Money flow, MACD, Volume, NVI (Negative Volume Index) are all looking fine.
    The area that gives me concern for IFL is the falling overhead resistance line coming from March 2018 and the 200day SMA which is running pretty close to that falling resistance line. Both of these areas may cause a barrier and will need a solid push to get above them. Interesting to watch.

    ifl 22.2.19.png
     
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  2. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    Thanks for that Ann, I have been a long term holder and added more when they went under $5.
    It would be nice to have a win for a change.
    Your comments are as always, great to hear.
     
  3. Ann

    Ann

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    Thank you for the kind words sptrawler, I must admit to being a bit bearish about many stocks at the moment, so fingers crossed it does the right thing for you! :)
     
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  4. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    I’m afraid when you look at volume and this current high
    Within the gap it looks very bearish
    To alter this view IFL needs to break strongly away from this
    Topping pattern on volume
     
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  5. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    I will be looking to reduce on most of my stocks, in preperation for the Bill, but this was a dollar cost averaging requirement, a massive restructure is happening at my place. Lol
     
  6. Ann

    Ann

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    Hi Tech/a, try as I might and I have just again spent an hour or so going through my trading books to try to get a grip on Volume as an indicator of price movement, nothing really clear. What exactly are you seeing in the Volume that gives you a bearish view in this instance? I will give a two month view of price and volume if you could explain it to us, I am not seeing anything other than one big increase followed by three lower but still better than average volume. What am I missing? What would you look for in the volumes if there was going to be a price rise?

    ifl volume 25.2.19.png
     
  7. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Ann

    Great question.

    Although experience plays a large part and 1000s of charts will give you that
    As an answer to your question it would be useless. But after I give you the answer
    you should be able to look at Volume AND Range differently each time you see a
    chart and add it as part of your analysis.

    So where volume occurs is important and what happens straight after it appears
    adds more to the story being read.

    High volume either means that
    (1) It is seeking out supply and happy to pay more as the Stock is in demand (Bullish)
    OR
    (2)Supply is meeting demand as it comes in and continues.(Bearish)

    Bullish
    Range will be wider than normal in the direction of the move.
    Often accompanied with a gap.
    OR
    Volume will occur with no real consequence to range withing a
    consolidation often prolonged after a down move. This can
    precede a bullish move as supply is exhausted. Moves up
    from here are often on modest volume OR Wide range appears.
    There can be multiple high volume bars before price moves appreciably
    forward.

    Bearish

    The opposite to Bullish with price behaving similarly but dropping
    In IFL's case Price is filling the gap.
    Bars are getting shorter on moderate volume meeting current supply.
    To move forward supply needs to slow to the point where demand searches higher
    prices to be filled and here we will see range increase.
    So an increasing range in either direction--supported by volume or not indicates
    (1) Supply over coming demand---Bearish
    (2) Demand searching for supply ---Bullish.

    Low volume and low range supports consolidation at a level.

    Ann

    You will find this a fascinating topic
    Once you get a grip on it you will be able to see what most cant.
    Right now IFL is at a really interesting point.
    Fail (Likely) or continue (Cant see signs YET!)

    Provided liquidity is present you can see this in all time frames.
     
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  8. Ann

    Ann

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    Thank you Tech/a, I will spend time on this, much time! :)
     
  9. Ann

    Ann

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    Looking purely at volume on an EquiVolume chart, I can't see any large volume pressure over the last 18 months. As there has been no selling pressure IFL has been able to close the gap. The only resistance I can see now is the falling overhead resistance line.

    ifl volume 25.2.19.png
     
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  10. peter2

    peter2

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    Volume should be considered along with the range of a bar. In the IFL equivolume chart there are three significant high volume bars.
    ifld.PNG

    1. Massive gap down with very high volume. This is significant and definitely selling pressure as the close was far lower than the top of the gap.
    2. Another high volume bar (equivolume bars indicate volume size by their width) but this time the range is much lower than the previous bar. This indicates demand absorbed the supply as the range was smaller.
    These two bars could be considered a selling climax as the last of the longer term holders have sold.
    Low volume drift up is an automatic reaction to the low prices, but the low needs to be tested.
    3. This is a significant sign of demand as the volume was high and the range bigger than all bars since #1.

    Price still hasn't filled the gap created by the #1 bar and there'll be supply near 7.00 as many holders will probably be relieved to get the chance to sell after a horrible ride down. Expect some resistance here and in time at your sloping resistance line. With more time this line may meet price near the 7.00 level.
     
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  11. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Looks like it is doing better than I thought.

    A21.gif
     
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  12. Ann

    Ann

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    IFL has had a retrace today (not shown on this delayed price chart) after yesterdays effort to seal the gap, let's see if the recent high volume at a high of 6.26 will give it a floor from which to try for another rise?

    ifl floor 26.2.19.png
     
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  13. Ann

    Ann

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    The main index holding IFL is the $XXJ, this has just stepped over the 200dsma which is a very bullish sign for Financials. It has been struggling to rise above this since early in February and now it has had four out of five days this week above that level.

    Back to IFL - I see a falling overhead resistance line about to be challenged as well as the all important 200dsma. Looking at the EquiVolume chart I can see selling pressure up to $7.40. Twiggs Money Flow is showing positive inflows and the NVI (Negative Volume Index)(not show) is in positive territory as well.
    My thoughts are bullish, let's see how it copes with the falling overhead resistance.

    ifl 3.3.19.png
     
  14. Ann

    Ann

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    An update, it appears the long term overhead falling resistance line saw the price roll away from it. There is a very long term support line coming from 2007 at $6.14. Let's see if this can offer some price support.

    ifl9.3.19.png
     
  15. HelloU

    HelloU

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    (this thing fell out of the 100)
     
  16. Ann

    Ann

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    It may be sold upwards as the funds slowly divest themselves. I have noticed this sometimes in the past with a S&P rebalance. Let's see this time.
     
  17. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    Price looks to be rolling over - will go sub 6 before we see a come back.
     
  18. Ann

    Ann

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    There was a front page headline on the online AFR today. I am not a subscriber so no idea if it will have any impact.

    Timber fight another blow to IOOF
    By Adele Ferguson
    Beleaguered wealth group IOOF faces a forest of problems, including fresh legal action over a timber business.
     
  19. Luckysevens7

    Luckysevens7

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  20. JTLP

    JTLP

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    Where does this sit with you now? $5.47 and some headwinds, but a comeback on the cards?
     
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