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Ang

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Put this one in your watchlist as all the fundamentals are excellent and it has formed a Darvas box, a buy at a break of 77 cents. Seems there was an investors presentation in Perth today and it was interesting to see the market depth that there was one buyer @ 600,000 shares at 65cents closing at 68 cents. This stock is very tightly held with volume of about 50,000 to 300,000 per day, unless a large break out like in late January to 77 cents when over 900,000 shared exchanged hands. I have a profit target at a conservative 90 cents, some brokers have a potential value of up to $2. The graph speaks for itself ie excellent OBV etc.
Kind regards
Ang
 

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Ang

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Re: GDM - Goldstream Mining

Another interesting thing is that GDM ownes 44% of Uranex, which is trading at $1.90. That alone should value GDM at 83 cents, not including the Gold and Nickel Prospects they have.
Kind regards
Ang
 
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Re: GDM - Goldstream Mining

Don't forget China is going to start taking all that unprocessed iron ore very soon as well.
 
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Re: GDM - Goldstream Mining

Ang said:
$1.90 x 44% = 83c Where did you go to school????? :eek:
FYI, public school.
Does GDM and NEL have equal number of shares?
The way to calculate it:
The 44% of NEL worth about $60m (higher today)
GDM has about 157m shares (fully diluted)
So you get about 38c per GDM share...
 

Ang

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Re: GDM - Goldstream Mining

mmmmining said:
FYI, public school.
Does GDM and NEL have equal number of shares?
The way to calculate it:
The 44% of NEL worth about $60m (higher today)
GDM has about 157m shares (fully diluted)
So you get about 38c per GDM share...
Well done I didn't take that into account, however If you add all the other resourses they have including the deal they have done with China to process their Nickle this stock should have a value of over $1
Kind regards
Ang
 

Ang

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GDM presntation in Adelaide

Can't believe this stock, it has the best resource an exceptional Chairman, who I met at the Mining Forum in Adelaide on the weekend and plenty of money in the bank, however it is hovering around 59.5 to 65 cents for the past few months. The Nickel deposit they have in SA is the best grade Nickel ever discovered and this product will be transported and sold for processing to China in the 1st qtr next year once GDM works out which Chinese company to do the deal with. Then there is Uranex with plenty of money in the bank and is 39% owned by GDM, and this is still not enough to get this at 90cent mark. It seemed from the investors I spoke to GDM has not been backed by the Brokers in Australia because they were not happy that they didn't get a piece of the action with regards to the Canadian Deal. This must explain why up to today there has not been the volume going throgh the stock since the announcement. All the Chairman could say about the deal is that in the medium and long term the Canadian (Continental) deal will benefit GDM shareholders. There was no other offers in Australia that would have maintained GDM's 50%+ interest in the project.

Kind Regards
Angelo
 

Ang

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gdm

Should start it's next run as it has crossed it's resistance as it has been doing in the last year or so. See attached blue resistance lines drawn on graph.

The canadian offshoot is listing in Canada in the next 3 weeks so this should list well as the Canadian know their U stock and should benefit GDM. Then we got rewards that GM shareholders have been waiting for for the off loading of Uranex. Will be an intersting few weeks.
Kind reg
ang
 

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Re: GDM - Goldstream Mining

May 10, 2007

Goldstream Chases Its Runaway Offspring


By Our Man In Oz



The tail wagging the dog is an old trick. At Goldstream Mining the dog is about to bite back. Later this month the Australian explorer, which last year spun off the highly promising uranium explorer, Uranex, will finalise a feasibility which should see it make the transition into an exporter of a unique iron ore which is also rich in copper and gold. When that happens, and the geology and the financial numbers are looking good, then Goldstream will have completed a remarkable metamorphosis, and might even reclaim its position as a bigger company than its offspring.
In one of those ironies often seen in a mining boom it is the “flavour of the month” spin off which sometimes does better on the stock market than the parent. That’s been the case with Goldstream and Uranex. At the close of business on the Australian Stock Exchange last week Goldstream (at a price of A60 cents) was capitalised at A$88 million, while the fully-diluted value of its baby, Uranex, (at A$1.85) was A$162 million. Of real interest in that situation is the fact that Goldstream retains 33 million shares in Uranex worth A$61 million.

Until October, Goldstream’s Uranex shares will be held in escrow– but it isn’t rocket science to work out that when they become tradeable they will represent about 70 per cent of Goldstream’s current total market value. Put another way, the market is today valuing Cairn Hill and all of Goldstream’s other assets at a very lowly A$27 million. Looked at another way, the calculation illustrates what’s hot in the mining world today – and uranium is definitely hotter than iron ore.

But, if the competition between the corporate father and son is taken a step further it is worth considering the question of which company is likely to be the quicker making the transition from explorer to miner. On that there is little doubt that Goldstream will win because of the brisk progress being made at its Cairn Hill iron/gold/copper project in South Australia and, if all goes to plan exports could start early next year at a rate of around 1.4 million tonnes, at a profit margin of around A$10 a tonne – steadily growing to double that output rate . In other words, Goldstream, from next year, could be pocketing A$14 million a year, rising to A$28 million – which is about what the market currently values Cairn Hill after deducting the value of Uranex shares.

Duncan McBain, the new man in charge of Goldstream, shocked a few London investors last November with his first Minesite interview, in which he casually dropped his bombshell that Goldstream had become more interested in South Australian iron ore than Tanzanian precious metals. He remains optimistic that Goldstream is on track to start construction at Cairn Hill soon after the middle of this year.

In his second Minesite interview, conducted on the sidelines of a mining conference in Adelaide, McBain’s confidence is undiminished, and that 14 barren years under the Tanzanian sun is about to become a memory as Goldstream develops a source of recurrent income. All that’s needed is a change of name to complete the metamorphosis. McBain was silent on the cheeky name question but he was very talkative about what’s afoot at Cairn Hill, and in China from where he had just returned.

He said work on the Cairn Hill project was proceeding on “about 10 parallel fronts” with the primary focus being the calculation of resource and reserve numbers at the project which is close to Oxiana’s Prominent Hill copper/gold development. “We’ve finished drilling, so now we have to work through the data and get government approvals to start production,” he said. “I’m spending most of my time organising funding for the project.” That should be the least of McBain’s worries. He has six possible Chinese partners keen to get there hands on Cairn Hill’s 50.3 per cent magnetite ore with its useful credits of 0.4 per cent copper and 1 gram of gold per tonne.

The plan is for Goldstream to mine and export what will effectively be run of mine ore, possibly with some simple magnetic separation. Material will then be railed to Port Pirie, with early shipments possibly loaded using a barge system developed by the steel producer, OneSteel, which has just started a haematite export project to cash in on Chinese iron ore demand. Talk of a barge, rather than a port, is a reminder that South Australia has a backward resources sector, which is about to blossom thanks its open door policy on uranium mining.

“We’re getting a very strong reaction from potential Chinese partners, McBain said. “We’ve got about six companies very seriously interested, and it’s really just a question of narrowing that down to one. Money is simply not a problem in China, they’re desperately keen for raw materials.” The cost of developing Cairn Hill is not high. Works in Australia are estimated to be around US$22 million with another US$20 million likely to be spent in China. The timelines for Cairn Hill are for the feasibility study to be completed in about three weeks. For government approvals to be completed in the third quarter. Trial mining could also start in the third quarter, and full-scale in the fourth. The first shipments to China should be made early in 2008.
 

Ang

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Re: GDM - Goldstream Mining

May 10, 2007

Goldstream Chases Its Runaway Offspring


By Our Man In Oz


The tail wagging the dog is an old trick. At Goldstream Mining the dog is about to bite back. Later this month the Australian explorer, which last year spun off the highly promising uranium explorer, Uranex, will finalise a feasibility which should see it make the transition into an exporter of a unique iron ore which is also rich in copper and gold. When that happens, and the geology and the financial numbers are looking good, then Goldstream will have completed a remarkable metamorphosis, and might even reclaim its position as a bigger company than its offspring.
In one of those ironies often seen in a mining boom it is the “flavour of the month” spin off which sometimes does better on the stock market than the parent. That’s been the case with Goldstream and Uranex. At the close of business on the Australian Stock Exchange last week Goldstream (at a price of A60 cents) was capitalised at A$88 million, while the fully-diluted value of its baby, Uranex, (at A$1.85) was A$162 million. Of real interest in that situation is the fact that Goldstream retains 33 million shares in Uranex worth A$61 million.

Until October, Goldstream’s Uranex shares will be held in escrow– but it isn’t rocket science to work out that when they become tradeable they will represent about 70 per cent of Goldstream’s current total market value. Put another way, the market is today valuing Cairn Hill and all of Goldstream’s other assets at a very lowly A$27 million. Looked at another way, the calculation illustrates what’s hot in the mining world today – and uranium is definitely hotter than iron ore.

But, if the competition between the corporate father and son is taken a step further it is worth considering the question of which company is likely to be the quicker making the transition from explorer to miner. On that there is little doubt that Goldstream will win because of the brisk progress being made at its Cairn Hill iron/gold/copper project in South Australia and, if all goes to plan exports could start early next year at a rate of around 1.4 million tonnes, at a profit margin of around A$10 a tonne – steadily growing to double that output rate . In other words, Goldstream, from next year, could be pocketing A$14 million a year, rising to A$28 million – which is about what the market currently values Cairn Hill after deducting the value of Uranex shares.

Duncan McBain, the new man in charge of Goldstream, shocked a few London investors last November with his first Minesite interview, in which he casually dropped his bombshell that Goldstream had become more interested in South Australian iron ore than Tanzanian precious metals. He remains optimistic that Goldstream is on track to start construction at Cairn Hill soon after the middle of this year.

In his second Minesite interview, conducted on the sidelines of a mining conference in Adelaide, McBain’s confidence is undiminished, and that 14 barren years under the Tanzanian sun is about to become a memory as Goldstream develops a source of recurrent income. All that’s needed is a change of name to complete the metamorphosis. McBain was silent on the cheeky name question but he was very talkative about what’s afoot at Cairn Hill, and in China from where he had just returned.

He said work on the Cairn Hill project was proceeding on “about 10 parallel fronts” with the primary focus being the calculation of resource and reserve numbers at the project which is close to Oxiana’s Prominent Hill copper/gold development. “We’ve finished drilling, so now we have to work through the data and get government approvals to start production,” he said. “I’m spending most of my time organising funding for the project.” That should be the least of McBain’s worries. He has six possible Chinese partners keen to get there hands on Cairn Hill’s 50.3 per cent magnetite ore with its useful credits of 0.4 per cent copper and 1 gram of gold per tonne.

The plan is for Goldstream to mine and export what will effectively be run of mine ore, possibly with some simple magnetic separation. Material will then be railed to Port Pirie, with early shipments possibly loaded using a barge system developed by the steel producer, OneSteel, which has just started a haematite export project to cash in on Chinese iron ore demand. Talk of a barge, rather than a port, is a reminder that South Australia has a backward resources sector, which is about to blossom thanks its open door policy on uranium mining.

“We’re getting a very strong reaction from potential Chinese partners, McBain said. “We’ve got about six companies very seriously interested, and it’s really just a question of narrowing that down to one. Money is simply not a problem in China, they’re desperately keen for raw materials.” The cost of developing Cairn Hill is not high. Works in Australia are estimated to be around US$22 million with another US$20 million likely to be spent in China. The timelines for Cairn Hill are for the feasibility study to be completed in about three weeks. For government approvals to be completed in the third quarter. Trial mining could also start in the third quarter, and full-scale in the fourth. The first shipments to China should be made early in 2008.

Well done Sam, As you see my post on he 26th of march I explained in brief all of this then and the main man at GDM was saying the same things then and using the same timelines. The canadian offshoot gets listed in 2 weeks time and that is why there has been an increase in volume in the last few weeks and i would say we should start testing the 70-77 cent mark again based on the break of Darvas. The Fundementals look good and the graph looks good we hope this time next year we are sitting on a $5 stock
Do you have any valuations on this one???
Kind regards
Angelo
 
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Re: GDM - Goldstream Mining

Indeed very interesting stock and it has potential to make big gain in short term especially as the feasibility study is going out in 3 weeks. It is supposed to be a good news and a development milestone for the company. The only thing I am concerning is it is near June now, will there be a lot of sell for claiming capital loss and drop share price further down to 57-58c.
I am surprised why only Ang and Sam are interested in this company?
Does Anyone here want to express your view about this company?
 

Ang

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Re: GDM - Goldstream Mining

On the move up at last , the Canadian Uranium off shoot must be a huge winner and there mas be good news coming up. Should break 66 cnts tommorow and a good buy then for medium term resistans and long term resstance would be a break of 77 cents.
Kind regards
Ang
 

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GDM

I can't believe no one has spoken about GDM up 20% from last months close and most of the running has been done in the last few days. It is interesting this one as I was told a story about two months ago that there will be something rewarding around the corner for shareholders, centered around Uranex, as a lot of brokers were unhappy that GDM decided to list their latest IPO on the Canadian stock exchange. The thing is there was a spike up before the "RE" dated which was the 10th of July then a retraicement and yesturday started it's run up in the 70's. This makes me think that the latest run in the last two days is not related to the IPO in Canada and something big about to happen in rewarding shareholder. To say every body is hoping that the IPO will list at a premium to the $1.65 that shareholders are offered couldn;t be right as this is what happened to Uranex and all the other off shoots GDM has done, with no great affect to it's price. I am accumulating at a break of 77 cents, long term resistance.
Any one with any other theories.
Kind reg
Ang
 
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Re: GDM

I can't believe no one has spoken about GDM up 20% from last months close and most of the running has been done in the last few days. It is interesting this one as I was told a story about two months ago that there will be something rewarding around the corner for shareholders, centered around Uranex, as a lot of brokers were unhappy that GDM decided to list their latest IPO on the Canadian stock exchange. The thing is there was a spike up before the "RE" dated which was the 10th of July then a retraicement and yesturday started it's run up in the 70's. This makes me think that the latest run in the last two days is not related to the IPO in Canada and something big about to happen in rewarding shareholder. To say every body is hoping that the IPO will list at a premium to the $1.65 that shareholders are offered couldn;t be right as this is what happened to Uranex and all the other off shoots GDM has done, with no great affect to it's price. I am accumulating at a break of 77 cents, long term resistance.
Any one with any other theories.
Kind reg
Ang
Hi Ang, This is my first post and a test mostly to see if I set up the CP correctly but I think the recent interest is in expectation of an ann regarding Chinese investors. There is a comprehensive thread on ST discussing this company. Am holding :)
 
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Re: GDM - Goldstream Mining

The Iron Ore Party Is Still Getting Better (And Better)

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, editor FNArena

Allow me to take you on a short trip through recent history. Until early this year most securities analysts at major equity brokerages seemed convinced that after price increases of 71.5%, 19% and 9.5% contract prices for iron ore had peaked and the only logical trend to follow would be a gradual decline in price over the following years. In January market consensus was that prices for iron ore would fall by around 10% in the following year.

By the end of the first quarter, however, a change in overall market sentiment became apparent with most experts starting to pencil in another potential price increase of 5-10% for the Japanese fiscal year that starts in April 2008.

By June these estimates had already changed into projected price increases of up to 20%. Analysts at Credit Suisse stated the next price increase might well be as high as 25%.

In the light of these developments it can hardly be a surprise that upcoming developers of iron ore projects in Australia such as Murchison (MMX) and Fortescue Metals (FMG) have been amongst the best performers on the local stock market since March.

However, the trend hasn't stopped in July with analysts at Morgan Stanley factoring in a 30% price increase from April 2008 onwards, to be followed by a further 5% increase in 2009 before prices are expected to flatten out in 2010.

And this week the Metals and Mining research team at Merrill Lynch said contract prices for iron ore could potentially increase by 30-40% as the global market for iron ore is moving through its tightest era ever in modern history. Merrill Lynch believes that, unless something fundamentally changes to the supply dynamics, prices are unlikely to go down until at least 2011. (The Merrill Lynch team claims that industry sources believe the availability of iron ore is currently tighter than in JFY05 when the price settlement was for an increase of 71.5%).

Underneath this trend of upward price forecasts is a surprisingly strong global economy with economists similarly lifting their GDP growth forecasts to 4.5% (and higher) for both this year and next. As a direct result of this steel prices have remained at higher than previously anticipated price levels, and more and more capacity increases are taken into consideration.

Underpinning the strong demand outlook for iron ore is a Chinese economy whose growth continues to defy expectations. Chinese steel manufacturers are expected to increase their share of the global iron ore consumption to more than 45% this year and the figure is forecast to rise further in the years ahead. (China represented only 5% of world seaborne iron ore demand in 1990 and only 20% as early as 2001). Equally important is that demand appears to be strong across all corners of the globe and some experts even argue global demand is becoming less US dependent as well.

As iron ore is a key ingredient for producing steel (it is the raw material used to make pig iron, which is one of the main raw ingredients in the process), there seems little at the horizon that could spoil this party for major producers Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD), Rio Tinto (RIO) and BHP Billiton (BHP).

One obvious question that comes to mind is: can this story develop into something better still?

The answer is: yes, it can.

Securities analysts have started to zoom in on the price differential between iron ore shipments by CVRD from Brazil and those from Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton. The difference in price is predominantly a result of the fact that customers do pay for freight costs between Brazil and Asia but mostly not for shipments from Australia. Estimates are that iron ore from Australia is currently US$20-30 per tonne cheaper than shipments from Brazil or even compared to spot sales from India.

BHP tried to convince its customers three years ago to share some of the freight costs but the attempt failed and nearly backfired.

It is a public secret that fellow producer Rio Tinto thus far has abstained from dragging the issue into the annual contract negotiations. However, if the market is truly as tight as analysts believe it is, it would seem but logical for both Australian producers to take the matter back to the negotiation table.

The team at Merrill Lynch couldn't agree more. The broker issued two reports on the matter in the past two weeks highlighting the illogic of the current situation which not only allows for Brazilian ore to be sold at a large premium (or Australian ore at a large discount) but even Indian ore, often of lower quality than Australian ore, to be sold at a higher price.

Merrill Lynch believes there is a viable case for all Australian producers, including upcoming producers such as Fortescue, to combine forces and make this a national issue. After all, the broker argues, "the concept of "landed cost" sales is not new, and is completely logical. Japan sells steel landed cost to its customers; China sells coal landed cost to the Japanese; China sells washing machines/air conditioners landed cost to foreign markets; the Indians sell iron ore landed cost to the Chinese. Why should Australian iron ore be priced differently?"

Assuming Rio Tinto CEO Tom Albanese decides to join forces with BHP on this matter this year, sharing costs for the freight of iron ore to Asian customers could -on the broker's calculations- generate some $3bn in additional revenues for Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton combined.

Or to put it differently: achieving a US$10/t freight share from steel manufacturers in Asia would automatically imply an 18% price rise on the current FOB price that is being charged for at least half of all shipments from Australia (Free-On-Board, meaning the supplier pays for the transport to the end destination).

Another positive surprise could well come from the Middle East where steel production is on a steep rise. Thus far, however, the region receives hardly a mentioning in the iron ore market reports written in Australia.

A recent report by Citi acknowledged the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia in particular, seems poised to become "one of the most important areas for steel consumption in the next two years". Under a positive scenario this could tighten the supply/demand dynamics for iron ore even more in the years ahead. Under a more negative scenario Middle East demand could potentially compensate for any loss of demand from the US.

Which leaves us with another question: what could potentially spoil this iron ore party?

The most logical danger seems to be a scenario whereby the current problems in the US housing sector, including sub-prime mortgages and collaterised debt obligations (CDOs), would turn into something really nasty leading to a recession in the world's largest economy which would have an undeniable impact on the rest of the world.

So far, however, almost nobody is taking such a scenario into serious consideration.
 

prawn_86

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Re: GDM - Goldstream Mining

Hey ASF'ers

GDM is my next pick, it is very undervalued IMO, and if it can clear the stack at 53c it will be away.

Im at work at the moment so i will post my reserarch when i get home.

enjoy
:D
 

prawn_86

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Re: GDM - Goldstream Mining

ok guys here is my analysis, i like this one a lot.

GDM – Goldstream Mining

http://www.goldstreammining.com.au/

Summary
GDM’s business strategy is to create shareholder value through a diversified portfolio. The Company maintains maximum exposure for shareholders through their multi commodity portfolio approach, coupled with geographical diversity. In 2007, GDM shareholders will be exposed to AU$19 million in exploration through joint ventures and companies in which GDM is the major shareholder, with only AU$1.5 million of that expenditure being sourced from their own funds.

The GDM board is working seeking to maximize shareholder value through a mixture of core projects, where it may take the project through to development, and spin-offs & joint ventures, where the board feels it is important to bring in specialist expertise or extended funding or where keeping the assets in GDM would not maximize shareholder value.
The core focus is to broaden the Company’s core project portfolio primarily in copper, nickel, Platinum Group Elements (PGE) and iron ore with the objective of developing cashflow and company making assets.
GDM’s modus operandi is “Delivering value through diversity, discipline and development”.



Structure

160mill shares @ 50c = $80mill market cap.
@ 60c = $96mill
@ 65c = $104mill

$7.5mill cash at bank

Holds 39.5% of Uranex = 32mill UNX shares = $35.5 mill (@ $1.10)

Holds 51% of Continental Nickel (TSX : CNI) = 13.7mill shares = $22mill (@ AU$1.60)

Therefore total of $65mill in investments and cash

Projects

Cairn Hill
“The Company has identified magnetite - copper - gold mineralisation
which preliminary metallurgy indicates can produce a niche product that does not require pelletisation. Goldstream has done significant feasibility work is currently pursuing opportunities to commercialise the project.”

Supposed to be in the midst of a feasibility study which was due June, but I cant find an announcement about it.

In Situ (Undiluted)
Initial Pit
Indicated 10.0mt 51.9% magnetite 0.40%Cu 0.12g/tAu

40000tonnes copper = $360mill
12000 grams gold = $8.4mill
5Mt Iron ore = (not sure how to value this) conservatively $300mill???

Total Insitu = $670mill

They are planning to have first shipment before mid year 08, so will be up and running relatively quickly.

They say the high quality is good as it doent need to be pelletised (??), but I don’t know much about iron.

They are planning a 10yr mine life at 1.4Mtpa.

Currently trying to find a cornerstone/off take in order to fund the mine


Mt. Woods
Near prominent hill. Doesn’t seem to be too advanced but one project is going for Palladium, platinum and gold, with results so far of:
22m @ 0.95g/t Pt+Pd+Au

Other Mt. Wood project is looking for IOCG copper/gpld, similar to what Oxiana has hit and is developing in that area. Not very good results so far with average grades of only about .4% cu.

Lets say very conservatively that the Mt. Wood project should add another $10mill onto the market cap even if just for potential or sale.


Management

Two of the directors have AZC connections. One has been on the board previously the other is still a non-exec director. I know of them and that they seem to be true to their word and don’t overstate things unlike some other mining co’s.

Cons

Seem to have found support at 50c, and there is a big stack at 53 and 54c, not sure if they are real or not, but if it can clear these it looks set for a good run.
I think it will need a good announcement to get it back on the radar, but hopefully they will be forthcoming.

Conclusion

So heres the totals:

$65mill cash and shares
$70mill (10% of in situ) for Cairn Hill
$10mill for Mt wood

Total = $145mill

= 90cents per share is what I would say its worth fundamentally.

I think that figure is relatively conservative especially as they are planning to be shipping iron within a year. It also doesnt take into account further exploration upgrades, which seem quite likely ezpecially at Cairn Hill.

They don’t seem to have recovered from the correction and I think 50c presents a great buying opportunity for a mid – long term hold. A few announcements should be coming up with the extended cairn hill drilling plus CNI’s drilling could hit something. Also could expect a corporate announcement with regards to funding, or the feasibility study before dec I would think.

Enjoy!
:D
 
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Re: GDM - Goldstream Mining

"Indicated 10.0mt 51.9% hematite 0.40%Cu 0.12g/tAu"
I have to say the grade is too low for me.

In addition, Market always give 20% to 30% discount to company's share holding in another company.

Even we disregard the two negative factors, Right now 1.5 times potential is not enough to make market excited.
 

prawn_86

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Re: GDM - Goldstream Mining

apologies ta i got it wrong, it is actually magnetite. I have corrected my previous post. dunno what i was thinking when i typed it :eek:

here is another quote from the co. website:

The initial phase of the mine is planned to produce 1.4Mtpa of magnetite (iron ore) / copper / gold ore, with a 10 year mine life. The ore ranks as some of the is the highest grade iron ore in Australia with 71% Fe equivalent DSO product.

does that make the grades better? i really dont know as much as i would like about iron.
 
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