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House prices to keep rising for years

Discussion in 'Business, Investment and Economics' started by moses, Feb 15, 2008.

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  1. knocker

    knocker

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    lol nice moves for them mornington to frankston rofl, and even your beloved StKilledHer is better than Caroline springs.

    Keep the good work up champ lol
     
  2. numbercruncher

    numbercruncher Beware of Dropbears

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    That would mean 3 non-fhbs pushed the eject button and laughed all the way to the bank ??

    ;)
     
  3. knocker

    knocker

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    lol classic mate
     
  4. numbercruncher

    numbercruncher Beware of Dropbears

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    LOL - you spruiker !

    That article says nothing of the sort - it claims price rises in 2 of the most desirable GC suburbs is about all ....

    Its no different than me showing 2 suburbs that are down and claiming GC prices crashing .....

    Which incidentally they did by over 9pc average on the GC last year ......



    no proof yet sorry permabulls ...... let me know when the masters of the universe start a quantative easing campaign and ill again join the lil merry go round ...
     
  5. gfresh

    gfresh

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    a) Rochedale is in Brisbane, about 50km from the Goldcoast

    b) A whole 55 sales for Mermaid Beach for the whole of 2007.. That's fantastic, but there is presently around 300 properties listed in Mermaid Beach. At that rate, it's going to take 6 years to clear them all :eek: You might want to also pull it up on the map, it's also a small strip some 2km x 1km across.
     
  6. numbercruncher

    numbercruncher Beware of Dropbears

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    Exactly .....


    The other GC suburbs they mentioned is Surfers which is currently flooded with apartments forsale .... I read yesterday some 3000 forsale across the GC and only like 30 sold last quarter of last year ...
     
  7. Beej

    Beej

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    From http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,25015773-14327,00.html

    Cheers,

    Beej
     
  8. Pommiegranite

    Pommiegranite

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  9. Beej

    Beej

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    And that is such a boringly predicable response that we see over and over again here to any data that does not support the most bearish property views. Yawn.

    Do you dispute the AFG figures presented re the mortgage take up of FHBs? Do you think they are just making those up??? Got any data you can present that would show a different picture re FHB mortgage take up rate and thus show some sort of justification for your easy dismissal of the AFG data?

    Beej
     
  10. Pommiegranite

    Pommiegranite

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    Beej, infact it is your post is a primo example of someone who is either:

    (i)reading into articles to support their own views
    OR
    (ii)genuinly fooled by the 'clever' journalism.

    First the article grabs attention by stating "One mortgage website said it had seen a 250 per cent increase in inquiries, which are now numbering between 3000 and 4000 a day" (I believe they are counting website hitrates).

    Then once you have been grabbed, it goes onto say that mortgage sales are upto 25.8% from December 21.2%. Hardly massive! Should we even be surprised by this stat? Even if it is true, I would go as far to say that it is a very disappointing increase for those in the RE industry.
     
  11. Beej

    Beej

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    LOL - wrong on both counts - you didn't notice that the part of the article I quoted was the factual, relevant part? (I ignored the other bit as it is of little relevance as you point out).


    Again, as for your easy discounting/dismissal of that factual part - see your point (i) above - a real stretch there to claim that ongoing evidence of increased FHB activity is in anyway "disappointing" to those in RE industry, or to those like me who have a "less negative" view on property than those like yourself ;) It's hard to argue/show that a great property crash is underway when data like this keeps coming out isn't it???

    PS: I still note that you cannot actually dispute the figures (while still subtely suggesting they are untrue), and that all you can do is merely harp on about the motives of those publishing them and label them as spruikers etc....

    Beej
     
  12. dhukka

    dhukka

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    I've come to expect better of you beej than just to quote articles without any explanation. The article is poorly written and argued at best and at worst a pathetic spruiking attempt.

    The percentage of FHB's as a percentage of total mortgage sales has risen by 4 percentage points but that is a meaningless statistic unless you know the total number of mortgage sales.

    For the sake of round numbers lets say there were 100 mortgage sales in December of which 21 (or 21%) were FHB's. Then in January total mortgage sales fell to 80 of which 20 were FHB's (or 25%). Thus the number of mortgage sales to FHB's can actually go down and the percentage of FHB's can go up if the total number of mortgages falls. Thus it is a meaningless statistic without the total number.

    I would not be surprised to learn that the total number of mortgage sales went up in January and thus the FHB component is a significant increase given the cuts in interest rates and house prices going south, however this article does not provide the evidence to draw that conclusion.
     
  13. Beej

    Beej

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    Dhukka - yes a valid criticism. As you state the implication of the article, and the more general expectation based on other data we have seen (eg ABS etc), is that the proportional FHB number rise would be matched by a rise in total numbers as well. You are right that the article I posted does not prove this, but it does add to the total picture. I just posted it, and highlighted the part I thought was interesting - I didn't write it!

    Cheers,

    Beej
     
  14. arco

    arco action-reaction

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    .
    A visit to realestate.com.au will show whats really going on.

    Houses selling slowly
    Homeowners are struggling to sell houses and units, despite slashing asking prices by more than 15%. It is now taking almost seven weeks for the average house to sell, with low interest rates and growing rents having failed to inspire buyers. The Brisbane local government area recorded a 21.4% decrease in house sale figures from 3361 to 2643, according to preliminary data from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland. A comparison of the six months to December 2008 with the previous six months shows a 36% fall in the number of house sales from 6666 to 4242.

    The Courier-Mail, Page 25, 24-25 January 2009
     
  15. robots

    robots hello

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  16. knocker

    knocker

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  17. gfresh

    gfresh

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  18. dhukka

    dhukka

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    Well there you go beej, that's why it pays to have a look behind the numbers. Mortgage sales actually fell -11% in January according to AFG numbers. FHB's rose approximately 8%. Refi's and property investors hit new 12 month lows.

    So the best you can say is that FHB's are propping up sales and prices as non-FHB's and investors shy away.
     
  19. Beej

    Beej

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    So as you say FHB absolute numbers UP 8.25% Dec 08 -> Jan 09, without any seasonal adjusting (Jan would normally be a "slow" month for property sales).

    No one (well at least I'm not) is claiming we are in the middle of the next price boom! Far from it - sales volumes in most states are down on a year ago hence the fall in total buyer numbers. However, FHB numbers rising is a leading indicator - it's feeding the bottom of the property ladder, and it all flows up from that base. It is showing the government subsidy plus low interest rates are having a major impact. If FHB numbers were continuing to fall then I would see more meat on the "prices to fall for years" argument. As it stands, the ongoing chain of data showing increasing FHB activity is setting the market up for a good support level that IMO will see prices continue to stabalise, ready for an upswing when economic times improve. The timing of this (and the probability) hinges on how bad (or not) and long this recession/downturn LOCALLY turns out to be.

    Cheers,

    Beej
     
  20. dhukka

    dhukka

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    I think you need to read that release again beej, January sales according to AFG are usually stronger;

    Stabilizing housing prices is a stretch, despite the increased activity from FHB's, they are not able to offset the decline in overall sales. FHB's are cushioning the declines would be more appropriate.
     
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