Trading the Apocalypse
- 9 July 2004
Dont get it---to deep for me.
OK I'll type this very slowly.
* You castigated those who are bearish on property as "can't pull the trigger"
* You went short on BHP and WPL because you believed that they would go down. You were beraish
* If you could not short BHP and WPL, I'm guessing you would be sitting on your hands with those two stocks.
You still with me?
* Therefore, you wouldn't be pulling any triggers.
* Someone bearish on property (as you cannot short property) would be sitting on their hands also. (doesn't matter whether they are wrong or right)
* Therefore you stand condemned by your own hand. Otherwise you would be long BHP and WPL as they have great prospects over the next 40 years as well.
Get it now?
"Pulling the trigger" at the wrong time may be financial suicide. Property in 40 years time will certainly be well in excess of today's price in nominal terms. But it's what happens in between that may be financial life or death for an individual.
Landlords are going bankrupt in their droves over here due to "pulling the trigger" at the wrong time. They "pulled the trigger" but they are not "enjoying the ride" - the two definitive positions in your post.
When you go hunting, you don't rush into the forest and start blasting away. You'll scare off the deer and probably shoot your mates in the @ss like Cheney.
You wait until you can pick off your quarry with one shot, then go home and have a festive meal with family and friends.