Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Has China Run Its Race?

Tisme

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It seems China has realised that its trading partners aren't doing well, so maybe they aren't either. Running an autocratic business will always result in favourable monthly/annual financial reports but it will catchup eventually.

I suspect China will have to take stock and look at its real situation. The USA has gone back into itself and shows less interest in developing China and India, while it reinvigorates its own domestic scene. IMO innovator countries like the USA and UK will regain global presence at the expense of cheap labour countries, China being the latter.

Of course the knock on effect for us, could be difficult times, especially as we haven't positioned ourselves as a semi industrial, innovator economy. Politics aside, I think we let the clever ship sail when we turned our backs on Gillard's education revolution, high speed net comms, etc and I think we will pay for that as China comes off the boil.

I see China has started reducing interest rates to try to stimulate domestic activity
 
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It seems China has realised that its trading partners aren't doing well, so maybe they aren't either. Running an autocratic business will always result in favourable monthly/annual financial reports but it will catchup eventually.

I suspect China will have to take stock and look at its real situation. The USA has gone back into itself and shows less interest in developing China and India, while it reinvigorates its own domestic scene. IMO innovator countries like the USA and UK will regain global presence at the expense of cheap labour countries, China being the latter.

Of course the knock on effect for us, could be difficult times, especially as we haven't positioned ourselves as a semi industrial, innovator economy. Politics aside, I think we let the clever ship sail when we turned our backs on Gillard's education revolution, high speed net comms, etc and I think we will pay for that as China comes off the boil.

I see China has started reducing interest rates to try to stimulate domestic activity
Agree completely. Successful countries know how to produce advanced technology and use it to increase productivity.

Zero appreciation of that issue from Abbott and co who are taking us back to the fifties by renouncing science, technology and education.

Neanderthals is the only word I can think of to describe them.
 

CanOz

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It seems China has realised that its trading partners aren't doing well, so maybe they aren't either. Running an autocratic business will always result in favourable monthly/annual financial reports but it will catchup eventually.

I suspect China will have to take stock and look at its real situation. The USA has gone back into itself and shows less interest in developing China and India, while it reinvigorates its own domestic scene. IMO innovator countries like the USA and UK will regain global presence at the expense of cheap labour countries, China being the latter.

Of course the knock on effect for us, could be difficult times, especially as we haven't positioned ourselves as a semi industrial, innovator economy. Politics aside, I think we let the clever ship sail when we turned our backs on Gillard's education revolution, high speed net comms, etc and I think we will pay for that as China comes off the boil.

I see China has started reducing interest rates to try to stimulate domestic activity
They've been in this current cycle of easing for months....:eek:
 
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They've been in this current cycle of easing for months....:eek:
Ahem ... Tech/a alerted the forum over a year ago in the China Bull thread. ;)

And your good self wrote this on the 26th May 2012

You can short US stocks until you are blue in the face, plus there are many ETFs. Keep in mind though that usually the second leg down is a rougher ride that first, with more whip saw trading EOD. Shorting also in this climate, with so many big companies hoarding cash can be dangerous....if you know what I mean! Another reason to go with ETFs.

Don't worry though, the next big bubble is right around the corner.

CanOz
 
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They definitely have to sort out their massive debt problems in China. Then they need to liberalise access to capital so that the more efficient firms can grow rather than propping up the SOEs that seem to be following the japanese path to zombieism where they have so much debt they can't invest and just keep the loans being rolled over.

It will be interesting to see if the US dynamism can get them back on track, but with the lack of decent jobs there I wonder if they can regain the middle class like they used to?

Even if China can somehow sort out it's debt mountain, get productivity growth faster than wages again, they still have demography against them now they're past peak workers and fast heading towards japanese pensioner levels.

Will they even have enough clean water and air to live in is another question? It's easy to bork the environment, very costly and time consuming to undo the damage.

We're living the Chinese curse of interesting times :rolleyes:
 
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