Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

It is impossible to predict whether gold will go up or down at this time. Having said that the trend is down. the world is in a dreadful mess and people are immured from atrocity and mass murder. They are also expecting financial disaster, a crash or some other event that would normally derive the price of gold up. It may be even priced in.

So, one would have to say it is going to fall. All the youtube poseurs and advisers say otherwise. They may be proven right but not correct.

Gold is either a long term store of value or a flippable play. Buyers get ready.

gg

 

[finicky]

Goldbugs should check out this ~month old video wherein Felix Zulauf touches on gold and oil around 33.5m
Back then he was expecting gold to top out of its 'medium term' rally at around $US3,400 and descend over a few months to maybe $US2,600 at which time it should be bought again. Zulauf is long term a gold bull. Check out his 2027 target for oil!!

 

[divs4ever]

Goldbugs should check out this ~month old video wherein Felix Zulauf touches on gold and oil around 33.5m
Back then he was expecting gold to top out of its 'medium term' rally at around $US3,400 and descend over a few months to maybe $US2,600 at which time it should be bought again. Zulauf is long term a gold bull. Check out his 2027 target for oil!!

i did and i find the oil prediction ( for a medium term ) hard to believe ( but NOT impossible )

since some nations are veering towards long term oil/gas contracts a lot of physical demand is avoiding the market place ( in euro or US dollars )

short bursts of $US 100 , yes during supply/production issues , but not for a prolonged period

more because of endemic manipulation rather than genuine demand ( i don't think the Western economy can endure $US 100 oil for long )

BUT prolonged $US 60 ( and below ) causes a different series of issues in the Western economies ( not many producers can extract profitably at that level )

 

[divs4ever]

now of course if he is correct of the gold price , my gold stocks should do very nicely ( well the ones that survive M&A activity )

they might even start paying decent dividends when compared to current share prices

my major concern is i still can't find an acceptable silver stock ( one where silver is the primary product extracted )

is silver always going to be 'the bridesmaid ( even to copper )

 

[ducati916]

now of course if he is correct of the gold price , my gold stocks should do very nicely ( well the ones that survive M&A activity )

they might even start paying decent dividends when compared to current share prices

my major concern is i still can't find an acceptable silver stock ( one where silver is the primary product extracted )

is silver always going to be 'the bridesmaid ( even to copper )

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Goldbugs should check out this ~month old video wherein Felix Zulauf touches on gold and oil around 33.5m
Back then he was expecting gold to top out of its 'medium term' rally at around $US3,400 and descend over a few months to maybe $US2,600 at which time it should be bought again. Zulauf is long term a gold bull. Check out his 2027 target for oil!!

Thanks @finicky . We discussed this some weeks ago when looking at longer term charts. Certainly $2600 is a buy zone, so much so that I'd buy at $2800 from memory which is another buy zone and I'd weather being wrong.

Remembering also that I am in for the long term although like everyone else I get the dribbles down the inside of my right leg when things start going to crap. So there is what we say we'd do and what we will do. There won't be a crash in gold so there is heaps of space for those who use gold derivatives to make a good dollar out of all this.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

View attachment 201183


jog on
duc

am not set up for international , SVL is as close as i can find listed in Australia , but i worry they will complicate themselves into unprofitability

i would have dug into the abundant silver ( open cut ) deposit first and use surplus cash to develop the underground resource at leisure

 

[ShareSuccess]

am not set up for international , SVL is as close as i can find listed in Australia , but i worry they will complicate themselves into unprofitability

i would have dug into the abundant silver ( open cut ) deposit first and use surplus cash to develop the underground resource at leisure

Stake is a Very easy platform to set up for international stocks with $3 trades

 

[ShareSuccess]

View attachment 201183


jog on
duc

i May just have a small piece of that when the market opens....I can see some very nice upside

 

[qldfrog]

i May just have a small piece of that when the market opens....I can see some very nice upside

Same here

 

[ShareSuccess]

Same here

just Think qldfrog.....If it does no good we'll just blame Duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It looks as if the professionals are making a dollar out of us investors on Main St. here. Possibly the Chinese or Swiss with their intention in the former's case to eventually hold more gold that the US and the latter on the back of huge Swiss Franc gains over what seems forever.



This does remind me of the confidence sapping shenanigans by derivative gold traders before gold finally went over $2500. It makes sense though with the Chinese love of the number 3. Between $3300 and $3400 will be Nirvana for them. Everything is so volatile atm. with Trump in charge.

gg

 

[Sean K]

Any chance history repeats?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Any chance history repeats?

View attachment 201195

I'd obviously like to see history repeat but is rare to see a chart like this, even with NVDA and ASML in the NASDAQ in their heyday. They retreated at times dramatically and more than gold. Interestingly they started running up at the same time as the run up in gold, late 2022 in to 2023 with the AI bull. Having said that gold has ranged for most of this calendar year and these sideway movements resemble each other very much, so it is not impossible. Maybe I need to start going to church again and get some proper Power behind the Chinese and whoever else is buying gold.

Follow the trend eh, @Sean K . I would not short gold were I in to shorting and I'm not inclined to sell as sure as anything the day after gold would be nudging $4000. Hopefully if it does fall it will be an EW a-b-c and then off again up in a new wave 1.Who can tell the future ?

gg

 

[ShareSuccess]

View attachment 201183


jog on
duc

Up 2% in Pre-Market

 

[ShareSuccess]

Same here

I've Just taken the Plunge mate!....after fees $8.61

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The classic bumpy bumpy pattern @Sean K . I might go asleep for 3-4 weeks. Wake me up when it either gets to $2800 or $3950. The professionals really are just playing with their arbing and derivatives and paper gold atm.

The world is so f-up presently that short of a declaration of war between the USA and China, or peace between all the warring cousins everywhere, that nothing of fundamental nature is going to move the POG.



gg

 

[ducati916]

Costco limits:



Full:https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/costco-enforces-strict-limit-gold-bar-purchases-value-increases





Shanghai is often used to test out Chinese government policies that may be rolled out nationally; this may represent a signpost the Chinese government is testing using vouchers to spur consumer demand in case of another period of trade divorce from the US.

If trade negotiations between the US and China completely break down again, the US will have demand for goods but insufficient factories, while China will have too many factories but insufficient consumer demand.

In a complete trade divorce the US would need to create new factories ASAP (and suffer severe inflation as and until they did), while China would need to create new consumers ASAP (and suffer severe deflation until they did). The Shanghai voucher program could be viewed as Chinese preparations for/ hedging the risk of a complete trade divorce with the US.

Looking back to the recent turbulence in the UST market which only lasted about 5 days before blowing up, it has to be said that the probabilities that China can outlast the US in this situation are far higher than the converse.

Depending on how you interpret all the media coverage, what is the likelihood of an all out trade war/embargo and /or the TACO trade outcome?

Then in the US we have MSTR and copycats hoovering up BTC, which no-one actually uses for anything other than pumping their common stock, which then allows them to sell more common stock, which allows further BTC purchases. The very definition of a Ponzi scheme.


jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Does anyone know what $3333.33 I like. translates to in Simplified Chinese?

It's

$3333.33 我喜欢 ( $3333.33 Wǒ xǐhuān )



gg

 

[Bailxtrader]

Heads UP! Gold looking very solid against the US Dollar. XAU/USD tightens below key resistance?

• Gold prices coiled just above uptrend support- June range breakout pending
• XAU/USD vulnerable to larger correction while below monthly high- U.S. CPI on tap tomorrow
• Resistance 3419 (key), 3500, 3600– Support 3229, 3121, 3000/31(key)

Gold is attempting to mark a second weekly advance after nearly posting a monthly doji in May with XAU/USD to coiling just above trend support. The focus is on a breakout in the days ahead with the bulls still vulnerable while below the monthly high. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.



Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Technical Forecast we noted that XAU/USD was, “vulnerable to a test of uptrend support before resumption and the immediate focus is on possible price inflection off 3333. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 3202 IF price is heading higher on this stretch…” Gold plunged more than 10.8% off the record highs the following week with XAU/USD registering a close low at 3203! The subsequent recovery now puts the focus on a potential breakout as price coils just above uptrend support.

Weekly resistance is now eyed at the 75% parallel / 78.6% retracement of he April decline at 3419- a breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the record swing high at 3500 and the upper parallel, currently near 3600.

Weekly support rests with the 6.18% retracement of the May advance at 3229- note that the median-line converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a break / close below would threaten a larger correction within the multi-year uptrend. Subsequent support rests at the May low near 3121 with broader bullish invalidation steady at 3000/31- both zones of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: Gold is coiled just above the median-line of a multi-year uptrend. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 3229-3419 for guidance with the bulls still vulnerable while below the 75% parallel. Ultimately a larger correction may offer more favorable opportunities with a close above 3500 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we get the release of key U.S. inflation data tomorrow with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.