Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[divs4ever]

Here's a educational read with a bit of history. Into US Gold!...

Are We Heading for an Explosion of the U.S. and Global Bond Markets? | GoldBroker.com

The year 2025 is likely to be the year of crisis: the United States must refinance $9 trillion in debt — a quarter of its total outstanding — while financing an annual budget deficit of $1.9 trillion. A veritable debt wall. And then ther...

goldbroker.com

explosion might be a poor choice of words , but something major must happen in the next two years ( in my opinion ) you can only fools the masses for so long

 

[divs4ever]

So, on the supposed downtrend on the short time scale, we now have two higher highs and a higher low on the hourly/half hourly. Is that enough to allay the panic or are the short term bears still saying we're in a down trend?

We look like we might be taking a shot at breaking out of the pennant, we're above the resistance line. Of course we need time to confirm a breakout but it's looking good. My target can't get hit soon enough, I did my first grocery shop in Australia in about a year, avoided buying several things because they were too expensive, got to the register remembering buying a similar amount of groceries for about $20, expected more like $50, and it was $75... I think I'll live on potatoes and rice until I leave, and even that might be a stretch of the budget.

View attachment 200767

i reckon it should be mandatory every Australian shopper should have an ECG , and blood pressure check before entering the store , i note some centres , have a defibrillator handy , i reckon at least three stretchers with wheels , to stay with the defibrillator as well

( and i go more than once a year )

 

[Sdajii]

It is SO GOOD to have you back in Australia @Sdajii to put all the wrongs to right, should you have the time. We still don't sell children on the internet as they do in Laos, Cambodia and Thailand, to Australian men and women let it be said, so perhaps wait until you get "home" to Asia to sort that out.

You are correct in saying that your bumpy bumpy pennant is looking bullish again today. The desks must have realised you were back. It has not quite made a high yet on my 3mo. down chart but hopefully the HongKong and London cousins will ally with the fascist Yankee cousins to push gold up over $3400 and then heavenward. I am sincerely wishing you are correct and that I am wrong. However .....

Were I the Head Cousin in China, Mr. Xi Jinping, I'd be having my underlings buying up gold hard in anticipation of the American markets opening tonight and then selling hard US Treasuries and Gold to put pressure on Taco Man ( formerly known as The Donald ) . It has happened before. It is called pump and dump.

In reality though, I trust your judgement, and hope gold continues it's bullish progression. I'll just post my "supposed downtrend", it's not as bumpy bumpy as yours, so please be patient with me who holds a Diploma in Technical Analysis, for all the good it's ever done me.


View attachment 200769.

gg

I've never seen children being sold online in Thailand, Laos or Cambodia and am unfamiliar with the market. If I ever need to know about the topic I'll come to you for advice.

Not seeing a higher high on a specific scale despite higher highs on a shorter timeframe and a clear positive trend on a larger time frame seems an odd reason to be bearish, in light of a clear trend of global inflation, loss of trust in FIAT currencies especially the USD, concerns about global stability, and a massive increase in gold interest from literally all global sectors from mum and dad to large governments. There are always bumps and bounces on the way, but when the overall trend is clear, expecting big moves against the trend is bold, especially when the trend line has not been broken.

I could see this breakout not holding, but it seems unlikely that we'll not only see the breakout fail but also not just retest the support trend line at around $3,200 (which I think is entirely possible if there's an bearish news) but also to fall through it. Hey, you might be right though, anything is possible.

i reckon it should be mandatory every Australian shopper should have an ECG , and blood pressure check before entering the store , i note some centres , have a defibrillator handy , i reckon at least three stretchers with wheels , to stay with the defibrillator as well

( and i go more than once a year )

Haha, perhaps your guess for why those defibrillators are becoming more common is spot on! I definitely feel shocked and horrified, as well as depressed and nauseous when exploring Melbourne this year, and the supermarket is quite a hotspot for causing the symptoms.

For years I've been talking about how much worse things are every time I visit and suggesting people look at leaving. A big change this year is that unlike previously when almost everyone said I was overly pessimistic and imagining things, most people are now agreeing and lamenting that moving is too difficult for various reasons. The water isn't yet hot enough to make most of the frogs make desperate attempts to jump out, but hot enough to make most of them aware that they should. Such is human nature, knowing they should do something but still not doing it. While speaking with my White/Western friends in Asia a common conversation topic which comes up is how much better our lives are there and how much we never want to go back. Maybe we'll start seeing defibrillators installed at the airports to deal with... actually, I think they already have them at Australian airports. I haven't been anywhere in Australia outside Melbourne for about two years, and I am guessing most Australians aren't seeing it as bleakly as people here, but Melbourne isn't unique other than leading the way and feeling it first. Currently most Victorians are seeing that going interstate would be good if they could (and a significant percentage of the people I used to know in my home town here have already left), but before much longer it will be obvious to more that Australia is the next Venezuela.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Well it looks as if the downtrend on the 3 mo. chart has finally been broken. I may even add a few more PMGOLD to an account outside of my SMSF as this could now be a rapidly evolving wave 3 move as I indicated on a post last week.

There may be some quick short term gains made with Taco Chicken Man's tariffs. The only problem is our $AUD which may limit our profit. But hey, a profit is a profit.



gg

 

[DaveTrade]

@Garpal Gumnut and @Sdajii in particular have been taking technical lately with directional and timing opinions, I'm more with @Sean K in that I don't think it's clear at the moment. GLD has been moving sideways and has just broken my top line but my money flow indicator has turned down and that latest bar did not have large volume.


The trend of the money flow is still down so I've redrawn my lines to visualize what I think may be happening. The horizontal support and resistance lines show that this latest bar up is still within a large resistance zone and my confidence in the next up move will not come until the market breaks out of this zone to a new high on strength.


I think the weekly chart shows a clearer picture.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks @DaveTrade . Each to his own chart and I see your reasoning. I better not mention @Sean K 's bumpy bumpy. As far as i'm concerned the Wave 3 has started towards $4000 and I'm backing that with the money that was going to the grandchildren's coins.

I never had any gold coins starting off, so I've changed my mind on giving them any.

Aaaaaaargh. Probs with IBKR. Poor me.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Oh f. it. It's been a bad day. Roller doors broken. IBKR won't let me buy Aussie gold with $AUD. Crook back.

Nobody effin cares one bit about me.

gg

 

[TimeISmoney]

Thanks @DaveTrade . Each to his own chart and I see your reasoning. I better not mention @Sean K 's bumpy bumpy. As far as i'm concerned the Wave 3 has started towards $4000 and I'm backing that with the money that was going to the grandchildren's coins.

I never had any gold coins starting off, so I've changed my mind on giving them any.

Aaaaaaargh. Probs with IBKR. Poor me.

gg

Too much global turmoil for gold to go down ATM, even if it blows off USD $500, the price of gold is fairly high.
MOO.

I left it too late to buy into physical gold, but my gold miners are thriving at this point.

 

[DaveTrade]

Oh f. it. It's been a bad day. Roller doors broken. IBKR won't let me buy Aussie gold with $AUD. Crook back.

Nobody effin cares one bit about me.

gg

You and me both, have a bad back as well.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Hopefully for the bullish, Hong Kong is about to get a move on this afternoon, as it did yesterday, to take Gold over $3400.



gg

 

[Sean K]

Hopefully for the bullish, Hong Kong is about to get a move on this afternoon, as it did yesterday, to take Gold over $3400.

View attachment 200917

gg

Looking positive on the GLD. Not sure if it lags spot POG or what.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Looking positive on the GLD. Not sure if it lags spot POG or what.

View attachment 200919

It’s odd isn’t it. With some lagged in price and some quoting futures. It’s difficult to be exact on prices. Usually buying on Commsec gives me a better price than anywhere on pmgold when I buy.

There was a member from Laos or Cambodia or somewhere like that who got quite sesquipedalian with me over a downtrend I noticed over the last 3 mo.perhaps they were looking at Asian data for the safety of home data.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Quite a trading range over the last 3 days. One break up and 2 down. Let us see how the markets affect gold in 1 hour when they open in New York.



gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'll accept that nice rise thanks ye gods of fate.



gg

 

[rcw1]

Good evening gold believers
Hmmmmmmmmmmm been sitting back enjoy the dynamic tossing and turning of PoG. Great levels to be at.

Nothing has changed from rcw1 perspective:
1) Gold is good; and
2) Plenty heavy of heavy lifting still to come that will blow you mind !!!

Have a very nice night.
Sea Eagles v Knights

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[divs4ever]

It’s odd isn’t it. With some lagged in price and some quoting futures. It’s difficult to be exact on prices. Usually buying on Commsec gives me a better price than anywhere on pmgold when I buy.

There was a member from Laos or Cambodia or somewhere like that who got quite sesquipedalian with me over a downtrend I noticed over the last 3 mo.perhaps they were looking at Asian data for the safety of home data.

gg

i am guessing Chinese and Indian citizens ( and governments ) in particular are vacuuming any physical they can afford , Asia should be a one-way tunnel for gold ( and silver ) possession

and if you have plenty of demand locally why would you export , risking adverse exchange rates in the process

in the West , buying gold ( or silver ) does not always result in physical delivery

 

[Rabbithop]

i am guessing Chinese and Indian citizens ( and governments ) in particular are vacuuming any physical they can afford , Asia should be a one-way tunnel for gold ( and silver ) possession

and if you have plenty of demand locally why would you export , risking adverse exchange rates in the process

in the West , buying gold ( or silver ) does not always result in physical delivery

Bingo!

 

[rcw1]

Good morning gold lovers

Analysts appear to be getting excited … the PoG outlook most encouraging … but we all know that

Published AFR electronic 4.41p 05/06/25:


The gold price could crack $US4000 per ounce this year, gifting miners the highest margins since the 1980s if the US dollar continues its slide.

That’s according to State Street Global Advisors gold strategy head Aakash Doshi, who says high inflation and low growth in the world’s largest economy, combined with so-called “dedollarisation” – where countries reduce their reliance on the greenback – could drive bullion to fresh records.

Investors have been piling into gold as a safe haven amid the uncertainty triggered by the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs that pushed the price to a record $US3500 an ounce in late April.

The spot price hovered around $US3370 an ounce on Thursday.

ASX-listed gold mining stocks have also rocketed this year, with Evolution Mining, which operates six mines across Australia and Canada, up 88 per cent, Newmont 41 per cent, and Northern Star Resources 36 per cent.

Fears about worsening friction between the US and its major trading partners resurfaced last week after President Donald Trump doubled steel and aluminium tariffs to 50 per cent.

On Wednesday, he said Chinese President Xi Jinping was tough and “extremely hard to make a deal with”, raising questions about whether a fragile economic truce between the world’s two largest economies will hold.

Doshi said if the trade and tariff tensions escalated, the gold price in his most bullish scenario could crack $US4000 in the next six to nine months, though State Street’s base case is a gold price between $US3100 to $US3500 this year.

“The early days of the Trump administration have corresponded with heightened US economic uncertainty, consumer anxiety, and a weaker US dollar, buttressing investor demand for gold as a tail risk and geoeconomic hedge,” he said.

In a separate report, Morgan Stanley commodities strategist Amy Gower noted that while gold had jumped almost 30 per cent this year, having also been supported by strong central bank buying and money flowing into exchange-traded funds, the US dollar index was down 9 per cent.

Uncertainty would likely continue to support ETF gold inflows, she added, as the July 9 deadline for Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs approaches.

Gower said the current inverse correlation – when gold and the US dollar move in opposite directions – has only been this strong seven times since 1990, which has typically been associated with above-average returns from the precious metal.

The strategist added that if the correlation held and the US dollar index slipped to 91 points next year – down from about 99 on Thursday and as high as 110 in January – then gold could reach $US3800 an ounce.

“We still see upside to gold, with a forecast of $US3500 per ounce by the third quarter but room to overshoot if the current US dollar relationship holds and the US dollar index weakens,” Gower said.

Adrian Zuercher, UBS Global Wealth’s co-head of global asset allocation, said this week that buying the Australian dollar was one of the best ways to trade the end of so-called US exceptionalism as America’s ballooning debt causes investors to lose faith in the economy and its currency.

 

[qldfrog]

Will they succeed?

https://www.mining.com/us-lawmakers-push-for-comprehensive-audit-of-fort-knox-gold/

We also now it has been decades since an audit was ever completed on the trillions of US military budget, so openness is not exactly a US government forte.
And do we really want to know? I do but not sure if good for the short term...
But Doge and Trump have lifted many curtains...
Let's see, at least they try..

 

[DaveTrade]

Will they succeed?

https://www.mining.com/us-lawmakers-push-for-comprehensive-audit-of-fort-knox-gold/

We also now it has been decades since an audit was ever completed on the trillions of US military budget, so openness is not exactly a US government forte.
And do we really want to know? I do but not sure if good for the short term...
But Doge and Trump have lifted many curtains...
Let's see, at least they try..

Just another box to tick in the great reset of the US economy.