Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sdajii]

If gold is irrational, how does a piece of paper with a signature hold up?

Is there a better exchange alternative?

Maybe we go back to cowrie shells.

One thing being irrational doesn't mean another thing can't be or isn't. I am not for a moment suggesting the value of gold is unique in being irrational.

But money is the unit we value things in (typically) so it is the reference figure. We measure gold in dollars, not dollars in gold.

We need *something* to exchange as a token for value. If seashells or rocks or whatever are used in that way it may be silly, but they are just tokens, so ridiculous as it is, it makes more sense than gold (don't confuse that with me saying it makes sense).

 

[Sdajii]

or pearls or salt , it is a mutually recognized item of exchange

it is gold that is more durable than many past rivals in recognized trading

in a desert water would be more precious than gold ( or oil )

Salt is valued at its tangible commodity value. It always has been. Pearls too, even if that value is purely related to aesthetics. No one stores pearls as a store of wealth (okay, someone probably has, but it's not normal). Pearls always trade at their commodity value - the amount people are willing to pay to use them as trinkets.

Absolutely, in the desert, water would in some cases be extraordinarily valuable. That's... again... because of its commodity value. No one ever stores water long term in a warehouse as a storage of wealth. If it's stored in a damn that's purely because it's the most practical way to collect and store it until it can be used in a practical way as a commodity, often below and never above its commodity value.

 

[rcw1]

or pearls or salt , it is a mutually recognized item of exchange

it is gold that is more durable than many past rivals in recognized trading

in a desert water would be more precious than gold ( or oil )

necessities of life ... rum, then gold ha ha ha ha ha ha

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Money has little future value. What you will buy today for $100 will cost more in 12 months. Equally interest rates will not catch up to prices although they will probably rise as both parties in Australia are committed to higher house prices. Bonds will fall in value. Unable to trade with any prospect of a stable market will also make stocks fall in value.

The national debt will rise and governments will increasingly fill the pockets of the least productive with sit-down money to keep them quiet and complacent.

Gold as always will have value. It may fluctuate but with the above scenarios it will be a haven of safety. The US will lose it's gold dollar status as BRICS moves to have a currency based on gold through which they can trade oil. Russia in particular was stunned by the imposition of export bans of oil and needs to use a currency outside of SWIFT to trade it's vast supplies of oil. Other nations will wish to join BRICS to be independent of an unreliable bullying US.

Lastly there is no guarantee that China has the amount of gold that the Gold Council states on it's books. Some say it is 10 (TEN) times as much. Should this be so, China will have bigger cojones to sway about given the massively increasing US debt in a currency, the dollar. The $USD which Trump wishes to devalue via tariffs so that an unfit obese underclass with no tooling or engineering skills can lose weight and get off their addictive substances to be as productive as millions of fit, educated Chinese in tens of thousands of industrial parks do daily.

Gold will rise in value. I have no doubt about this. It will plateau at some stage in the future, some time away from the chaos that Trump has unleashed. It would have happened anyway, it just so happens that a moron like Trump was available to trigger it now.

gg

 

[ducati916]

jog on
duc

 

[rcw1]

Well then some more heavy lifting in the gold department...
Look out US $3300 not far off the radar...
and then ...

 

[DaveTrade]

Good evening gold believers,
Really good PoG, dilly dallying around US$3200's .... mostly, past 4 or so days.

Nice.

Even nicer to know Australia, great country that it is, contributes handsomely to savouring the worldly appetite for gold ...

View attachment 197600View attachment 197600

Kind regards
rcw1

Great long-term outlook @rcw1 but a short term pullback may be coming, the quarterly chart below shows a nice 322 target price on GLD but the moneyflow looks like the market may not have the strength to reach it.


If I zoom in to a weekly chart it shows that the market has lost some strength in the move up since the 28Feb low. We all know that the market will have a pullback or sideways period at some point and this could be a warning sign that it's coming soon.

 

[Sean K]

Does everyone remember the breakout back here?

 

[rcw1]

Great long-term outlook @rcw1 but a short term pullback may be coming, the quarterly chart below shows a nice 322 target price on GLD but the moneyflow looks like the market may not have the strength to reach it.
View attachment 197639

If I zoom in to a weekly chart it shows that the market has lost some strength in the move up since the 28Feb low. We all know that the market will have a pullback or sideways period at some point and this could be a warning sign that it's coming soon.
View attachment 197642

Gidday @DaveTrade
Thanks for that.
Not sure. Odds likely favour that a PoG correction of some sorts is around the corner. rcw1 is an 'odds' man ... probability that something will occur. ha ha ha ha ha

'Smoking the pipe', bloke... smoking the pipe and backed off the map.

More heavy lifting left to go.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[rcw1]

US $3309 ...

Crikey

EDIT:

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I believe the FOMO is winning over Loss Aversion in gold investing atm. For the first time since gold finally broke through $2000 (all my values are in $USD) and before it reached $2500 there is a sense that putting money in a rising gold market will profit rather than make a loss. This was tempered by those months waiting for it to move past $2500 but rewarded by the simple pass through $3000.

While the wise are still looking at the possibility of a reversal, the majority are looking at a bull move towards traditional targets, $3300, $3500 and further, believing this will take time. For the first time some are speaking of hitherto unimaginable targets, I read an article today mentioning $4500 by the end of this year. So they are discussing rises in $500 steps. Similar to the $100 rises, or falls as it happened when gold was $600 an oz. Today's rise will encourage large movement bulls.

As volume is usually measured in numbers of ounces, there is some anxiety about volume falling. Although at $2000 an oz it takes 60 buyers of one ounce each to buy the value of $120,000. Whereas with gold at $3000 it only takes 40 buyers of one oz each.

I have enough in my SMSF as PMGOLD to have appreciated beyond my previous limit for percentage of individual stocks, so I am not a buyer from here on (up hopefully), nor a seller. Mining ETF's are my increasing exposure to gold outside my SMSF.

It is all rather exciting. I'm a realist though. Losses can and will occur, the extent may be merely a pause in a bull market or the harbinger of worse. I've never been good at selling expecting a top, so the continuation of a steady bull market or a sideways movement will suit me just fine.

gg

 

[Sean K]

I believe the FOMO is winning over Loss Aversion in gold investing atm. For the first time since gold finally broke through $2000 (all my values are in $USD) and before it reached $2500 there is a sense that putting money in a rising gold market will profit rather than make a loss. This was tempered by those months waiting for it to move past $2500 but rewarded by the simple pass through $3000.

While the wise are still looking at the possibility of a reversal, the majority are looking at a bull move towards traditional targets, $3300, $3500 and further, believing this will take time. For the first time some are speaking of hitherto unimaginable targets, I read an article today mentioning $4500 by the end of this year. So they are discussing rises in $500 steps. Similar to the $100 rises, or falls as it happened when gold was $600 an oz. Today's rise will encourage large movement bulls.

As volume is usually measured in numbers of ounces, there is some anxiety about volume falling. Although at $2000 an oz it takes 60 buyers of one ounce each to buy the value of $120,000. Whereas with gold at $3000 it only takes 40 buyers of one oz each.

I have enough in my SMSF as PMGOLD to have appreciated beyond my previous limit for percentage of individual stocks, so I am not a buyer from here on (up hopefully), nor a seller. Mining ETF's are my increasing exposure to gold outside my SMSF.

It is all rather exciting. I'm a realist though. Losses can and will occur, the extent may be merely a pause in a bull market or the harbinger of worse. I've never been good at selling expecting a top, so the continuation of a steady bull market or a sideways movement will suit me just fine.

gg

I like how cool you are being on the recent rise gg. There's a handful of us who were shouting out this was a generational opportunity a couple of years ago. The 'pet rock' has responded as we thought. I also thought the easy money was made last year. I was wrong on that.

 

[ducati916]

jog on
duc

 

[rcw1]

I believe the FOMO is winning over Loss Aversion in gold investing atm. For the first time since gold finally broke through $2000 (all my values are in $USD) and before it reached $2500 there is a sense that putting money in a rising gold market will profit rather than make a loss. This was tempered by those months waiting for it to move past $2500 but rewarded by the simple pass through $3000.

While the wise are still looking at the possibility of a reversal, the majority are looking at a bull move towards traditional targets, $3300, $3500 and further, believing this will take time. For the first time some are speaking of hitherto unimaginable targets, I read an article today mentioning $4500 by the end of this year. So they are discussing rises in $500 steps. Similar to the $100 rises, or falls as it happened when gold was $600 an oz. Today's rise will encourage large movement bulls.

As volume is usually measured in numbers of ounces, there is some anxiety about volume falling. Although at $2000 an oz it takes 60 buyers of one ounce each to buy the value of $120,000. Whereas with gold at $3000 it only takes 40 buyers of one oz each.

I have enough in my SMSF as PMGOLD to have appreciated beyond my previous limit for percentage of individual stocks, so I am not a buyer from here on (up hopefully), nor a seller. Mining ETF's are my increasing exposure to gold outside my SMSF.

It is all rather exciting. I'm a realist though. Losses can and will occur, the extent may be merely a pause in a bull market or the harbinger of worse. I've never been good at selling expecting a top, so the continuation of a steady bull market or a sideways movement will suit me just fine.

gg

Good evening @Garpal Gumnut
Measured response, enjoyed the read. rcw1 is excited too. rcw1 holds physical, believe may well have disclosed this previously. ...

You are not alone when speaking of selling at an 'expecting top' ... expected tops change ha ha ha ha, great fun nailing an expected top. Not many can do it most the time. rcw1 certainly cannot. No disgrace in that, profit is a profit. Looking forward to watching closely what the PoG does. Extraordinary stuff really, when you think about it...

Have a very nice week, bloke

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[ducati916]

The cycle is saying all it needs to say: Buy safe haven sectors. And yes — gold is a safe haven.

​

Buy gold, miners, and consumer staples. Dump anything speculative. People don’t buy gold because it’s shiny. They buy it when trust in everything else breaks down. In March, gold surged — up nearly 10% in USD and 8% in RMB. It wasn’t a fluke. It was a message. Trade tensions are rising. Currency credibility is fading. And investors — especially in China — are voting with their capital. Chinese gold ETFs hit record highs, adding $2.3 billion in Q1 The People’s Bank of China bought gold for a fifth straight month Chinese insurers entered the gold market for the first time This isn’t about jewelry. It’s not even about inflation. It’s about safety — moving capital out of a system people don’t fully trust and into something that doesn’t rely on anyone’s promise. Gold is up because belief is down. Belief in the dollar. Belief in trade peace. Belief in stability. So money is flowing to what doesn’t default, doesn’t tweet, and doesn’t break. Not because gold changed. But because the world did.

jog on
duc

 

[rederob]

Just a quick snapshot of POG so far this month with the hourly chart below showing yet another record high.
In the past week alone POG has moved upwards just shy of $400 as Trump's economic genius shines on this relentless metal.
For equity holders the plug needs to be pulled soon to lock in these gains.
But just as Trump's administration has redefined ONE day in order to continue unilaterally determining tariffs, *soon* also keeps getting longer.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Trump must be aware of China and the BRICS large purchases of gold over the last 3 years in an attempt to forge a new or existing currency as the currency of exchange backed by gold instead of the US dollar. Perhaps this rise in gold price suits his goals.

I was wondering this morning whether he and his crew might try to interfere with the world trade of gold, introduce tariffs, other trade difficulties or some similar harebrained scheme.

gg

 

[Sean K]

Another hundred dollar ducati day in the US.

Retail have obviously picked up the batton and been running with it for a few weeks now. The cat is out of the bag. My uber driver's cleaner's second cousin in Tanzania is talking about it.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

@Sean K I'm unfamiliar with the expression "bullion assets without coupons" in the context of major central banks supporting the holding of. A duckduck search made me none the wiser. I can understand a bullion dealer giving a person a coupon deal on a first trade or buying coins in multiples but have not come across it in relation to large holdings by central banks.

I was going to say "can you make me wiser" to which the answer would of course be YES. "Please explain @Sean K " as I say at the local fish and chipper when they serve me recooked chips.

gg

 

[henrietta]

@Sean K I'm unfamiliar with the expression "bullion assets without coupons" in the context of major central banks supporting the holding of. A duckduck search made me none the wiser. I can understand a bullion dealer giving a person a coupon deal on a first trade or buying coins in multiples but have not come across it in relation to large holdings by central banks.

I was going to say "can you make me wiser" to which the answer would of course be YES. "Please explain @Sean K " as I say at the local fish and chipper when they serve me recooked chips.

gg

Chips should always be cooked "twice" ........first go mostly cooked , then "hung up" to wait for an order , then given a quick hot cook to finish and crisp up .
Cheers
Jim