Global economy grinds to a Halt - IMF

[numbercruncher]

Can surely only get worse ......

Global economy grinds to a stop, according to the International Monetary Fund
David Uren, Economics correspondent | January 28, 2009
Article from: The Australian

THE world economy is at a standstill, with the major developed countries in deep recession, according to leaked forecasts prepared by the International Monetary Fund.

The third downward revision to the IMF's forecasts in the last four months comes as layoffs affecting more than 70,000 workers were announced around the world on Monday.

The IMF is due to release new official economic forecasts before the end of the week. However, a well-sourced report carried by Reuters news agency says it expects global growth of just 0.5per cent this year.

The fund has been struggling to keep up with the rapidly deteriorating world economy, having cut its estimate for world growth next year from 3.8 per cent last April to 3 per cent in October and 2.2 per cent in November.

The latest update anticipates sharply slowing growth in China and India.

The US economy is expected to contract by 1.6 per cent, while Europe will shrink by 2 per cent and Japan by 2.6 per cent.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24973302-601,00.html

I heard from some trustworthy ASF permabulls that Oztraaalian RE is booming though ??

 

[doctorj]

Re: Global economy grinds to a Halt - I.M.F

The World Economic Outlook is a very interesting and worthwhile read.

Available here: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/02/pdf/text.pdf

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: Global economy grinds to a Halt - I.M.F

/puke


looks whos turned all bearish and trigger happy on us ..... makes me want to switch teams ....

Davos 2009: Murdoch on crisis and war

News Corp chairman Rupert Murdoch says a big government stimulus packages will fail, as in the Great Depression when only world war saved the U.S.economy.

http://player.video.news.com.au/theaustralian/#16pbrXehI1_pHfjaxAJ56JN21Mkescza

 

[MrBurns]

Re: Global economy grinds to a Halt - I.M.F

looks whos turned all bearish and trigger happy on us ..... makes me want to switch teams ....
http://player.video.news.com.au/theaustralian/#16pbrXehI1_pHfjaxAJ56JN21Mkescza

You gotta love Murdoch, he's spot on once again.

 

[MrBurns]

Re: Global economy grinds to a Halt - I.M.F

Try this link instead, it seems to work -

http://au.video.yahoo.com/watch/4381959/11755859

 

[doctorj]

Re: Global economy grinds to a Halt - I.M.F

/looks whos turned all bearish and trigger happy on us ..... makes me want to switch teams ....

I can't find what I've done with the link, but Taleb said something today almost bullish.

I wonder if the old story about cab drivers and stock tips applies in reverse?

 

[GumbyLearner]

Re: Global economy grinds to a Halt - I.M.F

Germany (Worlds Largest Exporter)

387,000 jobs lost last month.
Unemployment rises from 7.5% to 8.3% in one month!
(N.B. Probably not using ABS stats by the looks of things)

 

[noirua]

Re: Global economy grinds to a Halt - I.M.F

It doesn't matter that much to the fortunate ones. If losing your job isn't much of a problem, due to income from elsewhere, "who cares", you might say.

It's an unfair world, and it's up to the Government, in Australia, to even things out for the unfortunate in these hard times. Unfortunate, that was me once, and I know what it is like and it can mess the mind up so bad it can lead to extreme decisions being made.

Global economy grinding to a halt, no matter, as it's a personal economy grinding to a halt that is a real problem, for the individual that is.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Re: Global economy grinds to a Halt - I.M.F

It doesn't matter that much to the fortunate ones. If losing your job isn't much of a problem, due to income from elsewhere, "who cares", you might say.

It's an unfair world, and it's up to the Government, in Australia, to even things out for the unfortunate in these hard times. Unfortunate, that was me once, and I know what it is like and it can mess the mind up so bad it can lead to extreme decisions being made.

Global economy grinding to a halt, no matter, as it's a personal economy grinding to a halt that is a real problem, for the individual that is.

I have read many of your posts noirua. The way a lot of business but not all of course is unfair. Bureaucracy doesnt provide all the solutions, but again neither do the unrealistic experiences of the individuals of the markets.

What really gets to me is the Free Trade Globalizationers of the US-Euro markets. These are the same people who protect their own businesses, through supporting their own manufacturers/farmers through tariff protectionism and yet dont practice what they preach when it comes to "free trade". Mainly because they are **** scared that people might be able to do a better job locally rather than their "free" global theoretical rhetorical ideals.
They consider many aussie businesses or other businesses outside of Australia as economic collateral damage.

Take Europes recent decision on subsidies for their own dairy industry as an example. That can only hurt Australian business. But what can we do? Complain..unfortunately it will fall on deaf ears! Unless we can get a compromise from the WTO! Not likely!

I think anyone with a balanced view of the world (considering the economic point of the abyss that we are at now) who cannot accept the arguments of this "meta"-philosophy of globalizationer solution has reason to be sceptical.

The Democratic Party and the Republicans to a lesser extent have both been protectionist in their own policies when it comes to protecting their own trade. The problem is that this kind of position has been morphed by the media and governments that anyone who disagrees with them is a wowser.

Well if they are the guys with the biggest stick in the sandpit, why can't we
point out the fallacy of their practices?

JMO!

 

[stockGURU]

HSBC's chief economist Stephen King is warning of a possible global recession. Slowing growth in China, low interest rates, low inflation, record levels of public debt and little room for further stimulus spending.

Scaremongering, or a timely warning?

http://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...r-global-economy/story-e6frflo9-1227371228341

 

[So_Cynical]

HSBC's chief economist Stephen King is warning of a possible global recession. Slowing growth in China, low interest rates, low inflation, record levels of public debt and little room for further stimulus spending.

Scaremongering, or a timely warning?

http://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...r-global-economy/story-e6frflo9-1227371228341

China has been slowing for 2 years, low interest rates and inflation for 2 or 3 years globally, debt 4 or 5 years.

so whats new?

 

[greggles]

The IMF has thrown a wet blanket onto global markets. Futures down in the U.S. tonight. Expect more volatility in the coming weeks.

A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks

We have revised downwards our forecasts for advanced economies slightly, mainly due to downward revisions for the euro area. Within the euro area the significant revisions are for Germany, where production difficulties in the auto sector and lower external demand will weigh on growth in 2019, and for Italy where sovereign and financial risks—and the connections between them—are adding headwinds to growth.

The US expansion continues, but the forecast remains for a deceleration with the unwinding of fiscal stimulus. Across advanced economies, we foresee growth to slow from 2.3 percent in 2018 to 2 percent in 2019 and 1.7 percent in 2020. This softening growth momentum has provided little lift to inflation. While core inflation is close to target in the United States where growth is above trend, it remains significantly below target in the euro area and Japan.

 

[basilio]

Very sobering analysis on ABC website around the amount of funds still being used to support the banks.
Looks like 2008 all over again.
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Analysis
The Fed's 'logical panic' adds more fuel to the world's debt pile
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02...pports-markets-but-adds-to-debt-pile/10789888