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Fib Retrace and other pullback trades

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Bowman

Beware of buying retracements in downtrending stocks - it's a recipe for losing money. Remember CMW?
AXO is the only clear uptrender of the five candidates you've mentioned.
MIX is kind of in no mans land with no clear trend either way. The others have rolled over and are in the early stages of new downtrends.
The trend is your friend. I love buying retracements during uptrends and shorting rallies during downtrends. I do it all the time in Forex and I did it in stocks for many years before that.
If the retracement stops at one of the Fibonacci retracement levels or near a support or resistance level, better still.
But my trade must be with the trend.
Not for love nor money will I take a trade against the direction of the main trend....I leave those sort of adventurous trades for someone else.
Swimming with the current is a lot easier than swimming against it.
 
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On the other hand, a downtrend at some point turns into another uptrend.
:)
 
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On the other hand, a downtrend at some point turns into another uptrend.
:)
Indeed it does. And when that new uptrend begins, that's the time to look for pullback trades.
But buying pullbacks before the uptrend gets under way will only chew up your account. I speak from first hand experience over many years in the school of hard knocks!
 
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I'd love to know how you apply 50% and 62% retrace levels.

Unless you use them on extremely short time frames I can't see how you can regularly find pullbacks to those levels without finding busted uptrends.

I understand you are a trend trader but please don't suggest it's the only way to trade.
My account balance is just fine thanks.

By the way I already made money on CMW by buying again at .56 (support level) and I expect to make more when I sell my original position.

Now if you'd like to contribute some pullback trading ideas rather than just sermons, then be my guest.
:)
 
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I'd love to know how you apply 50% and 62% retrace levels.

Unless you use them on extremely short time frames I can't see how you can regularly find pullbacks to those levels without finding busted uptrends.

I understand you are a trend trader but please don't suggest it's the only way to trade.
My account balance is just fine thanks.

By the way I already made money on CMW by buying again at .56 (support level) and I expect to make more when I sell my original position.

Now if you'd like to contribute some pullback trading ideas rather than just sermons, then be my guest.
:)
Taking counter-trend trades like CMW will yield you a few crumbs in most cases, unless you strike it lucky by having the trend change in your favour shortly after you enter.
On the other hand, trading with the trend will enhance the likelyhood of you taking a sizeable bite out of the loaf.
But if you can't see that then I'm not going to waste any more of my time trying to convince you.

Yes, I can show you how to trade 50% and 62% retracements. And I can contribute many valuable pullback trading ideas.
But in view of the terse tone of your last post, I feel disinclined to spend any further time sharing my knowledge and experince with you, or in any way trying to help you.
I wish you all the best in trading against the trend.
 
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I wish you all the best in trading against the trend.
Very droll bunyip.

When I realised on the Swing trade thread, that we were likely to be at odds with our approach to trading, I politely thanked you and moved on to this thread, which by it's title is quite broad and accomodating.

Yet you felt compelled to come over here and stalk me with your trend following mantra. If it's lonely in the Swing trade thread with just you and Stevo, then by all means start up some more threads of your own.

I believe there's plenty of room left in the forum.
 

skc

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Here's one on Hills Industries...

Can't say I feel like trading this one - it never got out of the long term downtrend, plus I just don't see the sale of Hills Hoist about to explode :)
 

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skc

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MGR... may be a bit late, may be not.

To trade this one might place a stop a the pivot low which is some 20% below current price - so not exactly good value for trading capital. However, the upside could be $1.5 (based on wave equality) so R:R is 2.5.
 

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Very droll bunyip.

When I realised on the Swing trade thread, that we were likely to be at odds with our approach to trading, I politely thanked you and moved on to this thread, which by it's title is quite broad and accomodating.

Yet you felt compelled to come over here and stalk me with your trend following mantra. If it's lonely in the Swing trade thread with just you and Stevo, then by all means start up some more threads of your own.

I believe there's plenty of room left in the forum.
I'm not stalking you mate. You put up some charts here presumably to invite comment and discussion. I gave it. Nothing more than that. That's what forums are for.
 

skc

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NOD. A nice fall from high of $3.5 to ~15c - that's halved. then halved, and halved and halved again, followed by a 40% fall! Back from the brink in 2009 and now looking for the end of the retracement.

Fundamentally the company is still profitable and pays dividend...
 

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So_Cynical

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Very droll bunyip.

When I realised on the Swing trade thread, that we were likely to be at odds with our approach to trading, I politely thanked you and moved on to this thread, which by it's title is quite broad and accomodating.

Yet you felt compelled to come over here and stalk me with your trend following mantra. If it's lonely in the Swing trade thread with just you and Stevo, then by all means start up some more threads of your own.

I believe there's plenty of room left in the forum.
U cant expect the trendy's with all there rules, to buy into falling stocks.

I love it....and doing quite well at it lately.

Its good to find some people here i have something in common with. :)
 

skc

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BOQ. It looked like at one stage to be bouncing off the 61.8% retracement nicely. But it might not even hold today.
 

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AUN consolidating around the 38% retrace ( forgot to include it on the chart :)) and forming a cup and handle pattern.
 

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I'm hoping today is the day the AUN shorters burn.
:D

In at .72 and looking for the covering rally.
 
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Potential ABC of W.2 completed, nice close on higher volume on Friday.

(click to enlarge)
 

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When you are trying to buy into a downtrend/pullback, do you guys use really tight stops? If so, how often do you get stopped out before the trend changes?
 
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When you are trying to buy into a downtrend/pullback, do you guys use really tight stops? If so, how often do you get stopped out before the trend changes?
I use MTPredictor to scan for these patterns but probably only one in every thirty found really stand out, JBH below was one of those.

The trick I find with these setups is to have a few things line up and in a stable market you can get the stop to breakeven quite often.
As with any system you will have more losers than winners but you can really minimise the amount of losers by getting as much as possible to "fit"

The example by skc in his chart of MGR in post #9 is a good example, the bar on the 20th was the turning point.

In the chart below of JBH I try to demonstrate what I mean, ie. the retracement is in the right area, the close on the bar on the 10th was where the reversal should occur, the pattern looks symetrical, it has closed the gap left in the 1 or A up leg and my indicator is coming off the bottom.

I am no pro by any means when it comes to this stuff but when I find these I go for them, I hope the charts are self explanatory.
 

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So_Cynical

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When you are trying to buy into a downtrend/pullback, do you guys use really tight stops? If so, how often do you get stopped out before the trend changes?
8 or 10% stop...depending

haven't been stopped since Sept....i dont day trade or anything.
 
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