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FGX - Future Generation Investment Company

Discussion in 'Stocks 0-H' started by kennas, Mar 17, 2007.

  1. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    I mentioned AIX earlier in the potential breakout thread and I think it has now broken through although not convincingly. Not finishing on it's high for the day is not so great. Certainly not 'outstanding' by any means, but nevertheless, just thought I'd put a chart up to show where the support and resistance lines are and why this is a potential, or maybe, breakout.

    I initially bought this in Jan 06 on what should have been support, but it failed. It then hit the next level of support where I topped up expecting a bounce (luckily it did). I have since topped up on each clear break of resistance indicated in the circles.

    Remember though, this is not going to discover the next Olympic Dam (it owns airports), so even if it has 'broken out' it will probably only waddle off into the blue sky, pending the general market.

    Or, maybe it's had it's time in the sun. Last few months have been very solid growth in passenger numbers at the airports it owns, and this could well taper off. For a FA view of this, best to go to their website and broker reports etc.

    Having said all the above, I'm expecting the market to correct further so I feel it's risky to be buying anything at the moment.......

    DYOR, blah, blah....
     

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  2. IFocus

    IFocus You are arguing with a Galah

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    Re: AIX - Australia Infrastructure Fund

    Hi Kennas (take two)

    Thanks for the chart always enjoy them

    When you entered the 1st position what time frame were you thinking of holding for?

    If the second level of support failed would you have closed out?

    Where would you exit now should the correction gather pace

    Thanks
    Focus
     
  3. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: AIX - Australia Infrastructure Fund

    I bought this as a long term stock and would have only sold if the reason I initially entered had changed. I was rounding out the portfolio at the time and was looking for a infrastructure company/trust that was likely to have a decent yield and I chose this. Looked at the Macquarie trusts as well, but chose this. At that time I was taking a top down approach and trying to pick the best stock in each sector to have a 'balanced portfolio'. I don't really follow that approach now, as I'm using managed funds to give me that.

    So, to answer your first question, as far as time frame, there is none. Depends on the market, and what the company does.

    I would have sold if it had have broken that lower support level, the 200d ma, and if the reasons I had bought it had changed.

    Third question, I'm still holding longer term as I see some more value in what they are doing with their airports. Perth is growing quite a bit and Gold Coast is expanding. Passenger numbers are going up everywhere, and while there's no bird flu or air related terrorist attacks (risks) this should continue providing a steady stream of income. It could be fully priced at the moment, and there's some issues with their last financial report in that their performance was significantly boosted by asset revaluation to the upside.

    My comment previous to this about 'potential breakout' are based purely on the chart without consideration to fundamentals.

    So, this is a hold for me, but not necessarily a buy for anyone else.

    Brokers seem to think it's fairly priced at the moment, with not much upside:

    Broker Call from Fn Arena

    AIX - UBS rates the stock as Neutral 2
    Broker Call - February 23 2007
    The result was well above due to asset revaluations. There is a lot of optionality present, the broker suggests, but AIX is moving slower than hoped, given the share price.
    AIX - ABN Amro rates the stock as Hold
    Broker Call - February 23 2007
    Target $2.50 (was $2.30). Higher than expected revaluation revenue led to a better than expected result, though the broker can't see any catalyst that would justify a re-rating of the shares. As a result its Hold rating is maintained.
    AIX - Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy
    Broker Call - February 23 2007
    Performance was strong although the result was bolstered by asset revaluations, the broker notes. No changes.
    AIX - SB Citigroup rates the stock as Downgrade to Hold from Buy, High Risk
    Broker Call - February 23 2007
    Analysts have increased their valuation and target price to $2.64 from $2.45 and cite a lower risk-free estimate of 5.75% from 6% as the reason for doing it. They do like the company's growth prospects, but they also believe current the price level offers limited upside only. Hen
    AIX - JP Morgan rates the stock as Neutral
    Broker Call - February 23 2007
    Profit was in line with the broker's forecast, so there is no change in rating or price target.
    AIX - GS JB Were rates the stock as Marketperform, L/T Hold
    Broker Call - February 23 2007
    The broker notes the result was broadly as expected and while the outlook remains solid, it is already in the share price.
    AIX - Macquarie rates the stock as Neutral
    Broker Call - February 23 2007
    There is no change to the broker's rating given it sees limited dividend growth in the medium term.
    AIX - Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy
    Broker Call - January 23 2007
    No changes to recommendation or valuation/target as "solid traffic results" for 1H07 from Melbourne Airport and QAL were above the analysts prior expectations. In Deutsche Bank's view this demonstrates the strength of the company's Australian Airport portfolio. The forecast
    AIX - Aspect Huntley rates the stock as Hold
    Broker Call - January 01 2007
    Update database.
    AIX - GS JB Were rates the stock as Marketperform, Downgrade to L/T Hold from Buy
    Broker Call - December 13 2006
    The broker has revised its rating to reflect recent share price movements, suggesting much of the longer-term potential is now being factored into the share price. Valuation is $2.50.
     
  4. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: AIX - Australia Infrastructure Fund

    Looks to be falling over a little on a short term chart. Perhaps it's stretching it's valuation as indicated in broker comments above. Chart wise the $2.70 ish resistance that is now support looks like it might be tested. Will be interesting to see if it holds above. (just as an experiement to see if support lines have any merit :) Just a probability of course...)
     

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  5. Peakey

    Peakey

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    Re: AIX - Australia Infrastructure Fund

    Chart looking good Kennas. All time high. TechTrader BUY signal based on Friday close. MACD looks to be turning up. I'm not holding, but will consider a position shortly.
     

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  6. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: AIX - Australia Infrastructure Fund

    Chart update.

    Short term breakout again. Pretty good momentum. Stretching valuations I think, unless it has some pretty positive updates on passenger number flows, or acquisitions.

    (still holding)
     

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  7. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: AIX - Australia Infrastructure Fund

    Chart update, for interest sake. (if there is any? :) )

    Consolidating again between break out at $2.85 and what might be a psychological barrier at $3.00. Still trending nicely up since break from down trend in Sep last year. I haven't added to position since break to all time highs at $2.70.
     

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  8. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: AIX - Australia Infrastructure Fund

    Update, maybe for my own interest. :)

    Looks to have broken uptrend after failing as anticipated at $3.00. Now has broken down through uptrend and first support level. Should be support around 2.70, but with market toppy, a pullback might push this well out of it's uptrend established for the past 9 months. I'm out. For now. It'll rebound now. LOL.
     

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  9. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: AIX - Australia Infrastructure Fund

    And yes it has. Very well supported around $2.70 and now clearing $2.90 again. :( I didn't get back in as I'm still worried about the valuation been stretched on this. But, looks like I might be missing some short term gains here. Poor me. Unusual support for this IMO. Perhaps someone is going to take it over? MAP perhaps...
     

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  10. Amor_Fati

    Amor_Fati

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    Re: AIX - Australia Infrastructure Fund

    Thanks for your posts kennas. I'm certainly interested.
    I have held this stock for 3 or 4 years and I'm now thinking it might be time to lock in my profits. Does anyone know why it fell so much (18c) today, I can only think of Qantas cutting flights.
     
  11. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: AIX - Australia Infrastructure Fund

    This has been severely punished the past 2 weeks which prompted a please explain from the ASX. Of course, 'we know nothing' reply but odd considering the markets have generally stabilised.

    I'm considering a short term opportunity here as it may have been oversold on nada.

    Due to the sp smashing, current pe of 3.47...

    What the!

    Chart diabolical.

    I suppose similar to most infrastructure plays, but this may be different as it's more a property yield type thing than a developer relying on new investment. Maybe.


    Huntley's Recommendation: Australian Infrastructure Fund

    Recommendation: Buy

    AIX is a diversified stapled infrastructure fund, mainly investing in Australian and European airports. Competitive advantages include owning long life airports. These offer resilient earnings from GDP-plus passenger growth, steady airline fee increases, parking and shopping leases and property. AIX pays relatively modest management fees plus a possible performance fee to its Responsible Entity Hastings, wholly owned by Westpac. Earnings are derived from distributions and asset revaluations which have been buoyed by strong passenger growth and historically low bond rates. Investors need to be comfortable with continuing debt refinancing and asset revaluations. Aided by long-life assets, prudent management and sound investor relations, AIX is well suited for income portfolios. Distributions are both moderately tax-deferred and franked. AIX will grow organically.

    Event 23-Oct-2008

    Are airports resilient, a useful defensive asset in tumultuous times? AIX’s main asset is Perth airport. Perth’s September quarter traffic rose 9% year on year. Can Perth and AIX survive the resource slowdown? Queensland sold its 12% stake in Brisbane airport to co-owners with pre-emptive rights for around $289m. Unfortunately AIX missed out. Multiple paid was only 9 times enterprise value to latest available FY07 EBITDA.

    Business Impact: Perth will catch up its capital spend with a relatively modest initial $215m over 4 years. Property will continue to lift Perth’s EBITDA. Using the Brisbane EV/EBITDA ratio compared to forecast FY09 EBITDA would price AIX at $3.60. FY09 proportionate EBITDA will be flat with the lower A$ offsetting slower local and EU traffic. Hence FY09 DPU only rises 0.5c. AIX still has to refinance its $130m short-term corporate debt with a possible equity issue still likely.

    Forecast Impact: --

    Recommendation Impact: We value AIX on a yield basis, effectively requiring an 8% distribution yield to Buy below $2.20. At current prices around $1.90 Buy for a 8.9% FY09 yield unusually both 45% franked and 40% tax-deferred.
     

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  12. kennas

    kennas hoarding tinned food

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    Re: AIX - Australia Infrastructure Fund

    Bouncing off those $1.50 lows.

    :banghead:

    Another opportunity lost.

    If it's bottomed, $2.00 major resistance by the looks.

    :banghead:
     

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  13. nulla nulla

    nulla nulla Positive Expectancy

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  14. Tano

    Tano

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  15. Mutasim

    Mutasim

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    Re: AIX - Australia Infrastructure Fund

    If the company is selling all its assets and delisting, is there any reason to buy into this? Looks like trades can still occur in this company.
     
  16. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Re: AIX - Australia Infrastructure Fund

    There's a 2nd return of capital / distribution of ~17c to come yet. So there's good reason to buy into it if it costs you less than what it's paying out.
     
  17. pixel

    pixel DIY Trader

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    Re: AIX - Australia Infrastructure Fund

    There's even more to come; and after that, Wilson's chosen new directors will probably use the shell as a backdoor listing for a new re-capitalised venture.
    If you're after dividend income and believe you can ride out a period of capital devaluation, there could still be a speculative buying opportunity. The chart suggests that some buyers are holding this view.

    AIX n 08-10-13.gif
     
  18. Wysiwyg

    Wysiwyg Everyone wants money

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    FGX - Future Generation Investment Fund

    Well the business model is simple enough. That is a charitable Investment Fund investing in a selection of Managed Funds. One for the socially responsible through good will by the Fund Managers foregoing management & performance fees. One option attached for every share and fully franked divvies proposed makes this listing likable long term.

    Applications close early next month if not already oversubscribed. :)


    Future Generation Investment Fund
     
  19. System

    System Administrator

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    Re: FGX - Future Generation Investment Fund

    On September 5th, 2014, Australian Infrastructure Fund Limited (AIX) changed its name and ASX code to Future Generation Investment Fund Limited (FGX).
     
  20. System

    System Administrator

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    On December 11th, 2014, Future Generation Investment Fund Limited changed its name to Future Generation Investment Company Limited.
     
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