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FANG - ETFs FANG+ ETF

Discussion in 'Stocks 0-H' started by Faramir, Jul 21, 2020.

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  1. Faramir

    Faramir Very New Investor

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    Info found on this website.
    http://www.etfsecurities.com.au/product/fang

    Ten Stocks in one EFT, rebalanced each quarter
    • Tesla
    • Netflix
    • Alibaba GRP - ADR
    • Amazon
    • Apple INC
    • Nividia
    • Twitter
    • Alphabet Inc - A (owns Google)
    • Baidu Inc - SP ADR
    • Facbook Inc - A
    MER: 0.35%
    Inception: 27/Feb/20

    As of 15 July 2020
    NAV $13.0902
    Shares: 4,001,407
    AUM: $52,379,358.37
     
  2. Faramir

    Faramir Very New Investor

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    (Above post, I tried to be factual. This post, I will be ranting and showing an emotion or two?)

    This EFT has grown since inception. From the high $8 to now roughly $13. Have I missed the boat? Will FANGs keep going up and up? Are thematic EFTs worthwhile?

    I have no overseas exposures other than a few companies earning income overseas and one Chinese disaster. This is why I am considering an EFT. I think a thematic EFT may have a edge over a vanilla index EFT like VAS, STW (aussies EFTs) or IVV where I want international exposure? Actually how do I evaluate whether a vanilla EFT is much better than a thematic EFT? Will I pick the correct theme for the future? If I am to seriously consider FANG, I will have to sell another stock (maybe even at a loss). So I am just sitting on my hands and wondering.........
     
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  3. Dona Ferentes

    Dona Ferentes

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    Last edited: Jul 21, 2020
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  4. Dona Ferentes

    Dona Ferentes

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    Lots of questions! Big picture questions!! Good questions!!!

    Diversification (not all eggs in one basket) is a way of managing risk. And also allowing exposure to assets that a more narrow portfolio may not hold, such as exposure to international (Aust is less than 2% of global market); there are many sectors barely represented in this country.

    But then the issue of timing creeps in. Tech has done well; but has the run been made, and is it mean reverting? In other words, will the gains made by growth stocks get trimmed and value style return?

    The great salutary lesson for tech was the 2000 bubble: "To be desirable an internet company must be ever so slightly unknowable." "It must remain forever in a state of pure possibility." - Michael Lewis (Liar’s Poker, The Big Short, Moneyball, The Blind Side, Flash Boys, The Fifth Risk), wrote in February 2000, a month before the tech stock bubble burst.

    Since late March 2020, the S&P500 (which includes the large-cap tech stocks) has risen 46 per cent. The technology-laden NASDAQ has climbed 56 per cent. The "FAANG+" stocks – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google and other big techs like Tesla – have soared 83 per cent.

    And it is seen as an acceleration of a trend; according to Morningstar research, for the year-to-date large value stocks have underperformed large growth stocks by nearly 23 per cent. Over 12 months the performance gap is almost 25 per cent against a five-year average of 8.43 per cent and a 10-year average of 5.22 per cent.

    "Most conventional stocks can be conventionally analysed by discounting their future cash flows by a risk-free rate, plus a risk-premium that reflects the investor’s assessment of the possibility that the cash flows won’t meet their expectations.

    When the risk-free rates – generally the long term bond rates – are near zero, or even negative, and equity risk premiums are compressed by competition because investors are all chasing the same returns from the same investments, stock prices will rise. Investors will accept the lower returns for greater risks because they have no positively real-returning alternatives.

    Tech stocks, because their upside isn’t and can’t be defined or capped, meet the Lewis description of being "slightly unknowable" and having "pure possibility."


    The pandemic, which has injected massive doses of new ultra-cheap liquidity and credit into financial systems and economies, is amplifying and accelerating the long term trends and causing investors to chase the stocks with the most amounts of "pure possibility."

    The moment those stocks, priced for something beyond perfection, become knowable – the moment any limit to that potential can be discerned and they can be assessed more conventionally – of course, their valuations will plummet.
    - Steven Bartholomuez
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2020
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  5. Faramir

    Faramir Very New Investor

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    @Dona Ferentes Thank you for your very informative reply. I have the hard copy of AFR article that you have linked too. That article is implying that I should use a specialist fund manager instead of putting money in an 'Active EFT' like FANG. For me to discuss that article, that is a different thread. I don't subscribe to AFR and only buy a hard copy once in a while. It was a fluke that I found that Tony Featherstone article.

    Your post above expresses my primitive feelings. FANGs is a bubble of some kind. It may 'never' burst - like one of those massive bubbles that you see kids' entertainers make, those bubbles just keep growing.

    Sorry for my simple and delayed response. I am trying to make time to write a more valuable response.

    Am I right when I say at least 4-5 of those stocks make a profit? Don't worry about their market cap relative to cash flow? My simple mind tells me that I should have brought FANG either at inception, or during April or at the next crash?

    There are other Active EFTs I am vaguely thinking about. I will post my thoughts hopefully soon on other threads. Thank you Dona Ferentes.
     
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  6. Dona Ferentes

    Dona Ferentes

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    Been thinking about this; not having any idea as to where you are on your journey of wealth accumulation, have an active or passive view to investing, want to trade, and all that. And I definitely won't give advice.

    I find it easier for tax treatment to buy Aust domiciled; direct via OS exchanges is cheaper but complex.
    My view is ETFs are good for because of lower costs. If you have a global or macro view and want to invest somewhere, then ETFs have a use. Passive index exposure, can move in and out easily.
    Active ETFs are set up for thematic exposure, as you have found with Tech. That involves a view that some sector is going to do well, and the composition of holdings can be quite diffuse.
    Then there are fund Managers, both listed and unlisted. These try to beat the index and can hold varying amounts of cash, according to their view of where markets are going. Many of them are Aussie based; Magellan is probably the most successful. https://www.magellangroup.com.au/funds/
    And a bunch of International LICs, through which I have some holdings.
     
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