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Economic Indicators Charted

Discussion in 'Business, Investment and Economics' started by Ann, Jan 24, 2019.

  1. Ann

    Ann

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    There are a number of economic indicators that come out on a monthly or quarterly basis, these often have quite a dramatic effect on the markets. Recently I have found a number of these indicators in chart form, which makes them far more interesting and potentially more predictive. Hopefully some of you may find them as interesting as I have.

    Consumer Sentiment

    Consumer sentiment is a statistical measurement and economic indicator of the overall health of the economy as determined by consumer opinion. Consumer sentiment takes into account an individual's feelings toward his or her current financial health, the health of the economy in the short term and the prospects for longer-term economic growth.

    In the U.S., consumer spending makes up a majority of economic output as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As much as 75% of GDP is driven by a consumer spending component. Naturally, the sentiment or attitude of consumers goes a long way in gauging the health of the economy.

    More here.....

    $$umcsent consumer sentiment.png


    The Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank Consumer Sentiment Index for Australia declined 4.7 percent month-over-month to 99.6 in January 2019.

    $$australia-consumer-confidence-jan-19.png
     
    qldfrog, sptrawler and Smurf1976 like this.
  2. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    Thanks for that Ann, it may be well worth monitoring.
     
  3. Ann

    Ann

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  4. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    It is certainly looking as though it is due to repeat, it may have a bit to go yet, but the long term doesn't look as though it has many legs left.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT

    Also from your chart Ann, when it falls, it falls fast.
     
  5. Smurf1976

    Smurf1976

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    I think there's an error here somewhere.....

    This chart and the oil rig chart you posted have exactly the same numbers on them. Seems an unlikely coincidence so I assume something's done amiss?
     
  6. Ann

    Ann

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    Yes, I stuffed up over on the Oiler thread. No idea how, but I have put the Oil Rig count up on the POO now. I had a horrible feeling I may have put the Oil Rig count here! :)
     
  7. Ann

    Ann

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    Yield curve inversion has been associated with recession, however.....

    Opinion: The Fed won’t kill the economic expansion, top forecaster says


    Economist Ryan Sweet of Moody’s Analytics has a message for his fellow economists who are predicting a recession in the next year: “The Fed isn’t going to kill this expansion.”


    The decision by the Fed this week to hold off on further rate hikes shows that the Fed is “learning from its past mistakes,” Sweet says. “The Fed isn’t going to jump from behind the curtain and kill the economy.”


    Sweet, director of real-time economics at Moody’s Analytics, won MarketWatch’s Forecaster of the Month contest for the fourth time. He took second place in the Forecaster of the Year contest in 2017 and fourth in 2018.


    Sweet and his team think the economy is slowing, but recession risks remain low. “The worries are overdone,” he says.


    Recessions are typically caused by one of two things, he says: Imbalances develop in the economy or financial system, or the Federal Reserve panics and raises interest rates too much in response to unexpected inflation caused by an overheating economy. More...



    What is an Inverted Yield Curve?


    An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term debt instruments have a lower yield than short-term debt instruments of the same credit quality. This type of yield curve is the rarest of the three main curve types and is considered to be a predictor of economic recession.


    This is a 2 year comparative chart between the three month treasury bonds and the 10 year treasury bonds showing how close the yield is to inversion.

    $tnx $irx invert 22.3.19.png
     
  8. Zaxon

    Zaxon The voice of reason

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    Here are the latest economic forecasts for Australia, provided by Treasury.

    upload_2019-3-22_10-24-51.png
     
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