Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

over9k

Forum jester
Joined
12 June 2020
Posts
3,193
Reaction score
3,191
Question is whether omicron crushes demand (and supply) at the same time as the tapering begins. That's the perfect storm if it happens.

Triply so if the vaccines turn out to be shite against it, which we just don't know yet.

Lots of uncertainty ahead.
 
Joined
28 August 2010
Posts
758
Reaction score
647
Question is whether omicron crushes demand (and supply) at the same time as the tapering begins. That's the perfect storm if it happens.

Triply so if the vaccines turn out to be shite against it, which we just don't know yet.

Lots of uncertainty ahead.

groundhog day
 
Joined
8 June 2008
Posts
8,032
Reaction score
9,075
next thing to look at is food, a virus going milder and more contagious aka std behaviour and we stop the world again, it will never stop.
Personally trying to get some insurance cover for our trip, a relevant one which will cover you for cancellation should gov so called SMART advise changes(after the purchase)..well good luck..so far only one we could find and have to look at the fine lines
 
Joined
9 July 2004
Posts
20,196
Reaction score
4,501
In layman's terms, trillions of dollars of debt is going to be paid off with printed cash. That, simply put, is currency debasement. There's simply no other option at this point.
As an Economist, I make a really good farrier. But I've followed all this for a very long time and try to understand the whole deal.

I've listened to all the arguments, like Lacey Hunt's (and others) deflation thesis, and all the other theses as well.

And for what it's worth, I can't see us getting out of this any other way than what you said here. What's left of the productive part of the economy cannot pay it, and I just don't think that we can kick the can down the road foreign us for our children and grandchildren to pay for it... And I don't think that the proletariat will tolerate higher taxes.

The modus operandi of our fiat economies has always been to inflate away the debt but now I see no other option than to hyperinflate it away and anyone who does not invest accordingly is going to have their wealth disintegrated in short order.

If we watch the language of the US federal reserve carefully, it has subtly... Or maybe not so subtly changed. Inflation is no longer "transitory" etc.

The momma and poppa middle classes probably had better lube up, IMO
 

over9k

Forum jester
Joined
12 June 2020
Posts
3,193
Reaction score
3,191
As an Economist, I make a really good farrier. But I've followed all this for a very long time and try to understand the whole deal.

I've listened to all the arguments, like Lacey Hunt's (and others) deflation thesis, and all the other theses as well.

And for what it's worth, I can't see us getting out of this any other way than what you said here. What's left of the productive part of the economy cannot pay it, and I just don't think that we can kick the can down the road foreign us for our children and grandchildren to pay for it... And I don't think that the proletariat will tolerate higher taxes.

The modus operandi of our fiat economies has always been to inflate away the debt but now I see no other option than to hyperinflate it away and anyone who does not invest accordingly is going to have their wealth disintegrated in short order.

If we watch the language of the US federal reserve carefully, it has subtly... Or maybe not so subtly changed. Inflation is no longer "transitory" etc.

The momma and poppa middle classes probably had better lube up, IMO
10/10, the only thing I'll add is that shite flows downhill - the further down the food chain you are, the more you're going to get f**ked.
 
Joined
9 July 2004
Posts
20,196
Reaction score
4,501
10/10, the only thing I'll add is that shite flows downhill - the further down the food chain you are, the more you're going to get f**ked.
I think they'll throw the boguns some crumbs so they don't riot, ah la Bogunkeeper or some such bs. It's those who think they have something to lose (massive mortgage, Ranger Wildtrack on tick, kids in private school, etc) who need to keep earning, or those relying on super or fixed income, who are going to get clown@#£&ed, in my humble opinion.
 
Joined
14 February 2005
Posts
12,394
Reaction score
9,129
or those relying on super or fixed income
Perhaps it's worth discussing what those with long term investments in Super or elsewhere ought to be investing in?

Assuming that for Joe Average it's not really an option to be having their super in cryptos or to be day trading, they're realistically going to pick some broader strategy and implement it via ETF's, long term shareholdings, managed funds and so on.

My basic thoughts being in the broad areas of:

Agriculture

Energy

Metals both precious and industrial

Companies with real pricing power and business models that generate free cash flow and are hard for a competitor to replicate due to whatever barriers to entry.

Some real estate and cryptos if you can work out which ones.

Happy to be shot down if others disagree, that's why I'm posting it really. My point is a longer term one though - buy it today, forget about it until the inflation is pretty much done however many years from now. What should benefit from the whole thing overall not just the short term?
 
Joined
3 May 2019
Posts
3,220
Reaction score
4,102
Ranger Wildtrack on tick
If you listen really carefully, you hear the word LEMON three times in this advertisement....
( in the music/ singing)
I nearly fell off my perch in laughter when I heard it!

What car company in their right mind does that?
I discovered this all on my own...



[Chorus]
A lemon grows a pip
A yard will build a ship
As Satan is my master
I will get you, Chip

A lemon grows a pip
A yard will build a ship
As Satan is my master
I'm gonna get you
 

over9k

Forum jester
Joined
12 June 2020
Posts
3,193
Reaction score
3,191
Perhaps it's worth discussing what those with long term investments in Super or elsewhere ought to be investing in?

Assuming that for Joe Average it's not really an option to be having their super in cryptos or to be day trading, they're realistically going to pick some broader strategy and implement it via ETF's, long term shareholdings, managed funds and so on.

My basic thoughts being in the broad areas of:

Agriculture

Energy

Metals both precious and industrial

Companies with real pricing power and business models that generate free cash flow and are hard for a competitor to replicate due to whatever barriers to entry.

Some real estate and cryptos if you can work out which ones.

Happy to be shot down if others disagree, that's why I'm posting it really. My point is a longer term one though - buy it today, forget about it until the inflation is pretty much done however many years from now. What should benefit from the whole thing overall not just the short term?
You've gone about this backwards to my way of thinking smurf - I usually ask where the demand is going to come from and then think about who's going to satisfy that demand.

I've posted population pyramids all over these forums so won't do so again, I'll just point out that USA, India, Mexico are the only non-african countries in the world with a positive demographic profile. The era of perpetual growth (stonks always go up) is not about to close but indeed, already behind us.

3/4 of the world is, for the next 30 years, going to look like the nikkei for the last 30.

The difference is that the japanese were still able to export to demand from world/international/foreign markets. Soon, not even those will exist. The end is well & truly nigh for a lot of the planet. Just take a look at china since feb of this year to get an idea of what I am talking about.

My point here is that it's not just about the debt but also how easily (or not) it can be paid off. The worse the demographic profile, the harder it is to pay off, and so the more of a bind the authorities are in.

And this is before we even start with geopolitical stuff like the USD being the world's trade currency and thus flight to safety whenever the shite hits the fan etc etc. That's a whole extra layer to think about all on its own.
 

over9k

Forum jester
Joined
12 June 2020
Posts
3,193
Reaction score
3,191
One area in which there is certain to be a demand expansion in is healthcare, and the reason why is quite simple:

60-80 years after a baby boom, you have a healthcare boom as all the baby boomers get old and start creaking.

Then you have a death boom.
 
Joined
14 February 2005
Posts
12,394
Reaction score
9,129
You've gone about this backwards to my way of thinking smurf
The way I've looked at it is that if the currency of multiple countries is to be massively devalued then, short term movements aside, what ought to hold value by the time it's all done?

A flood of money is a claim on goods and the raw materials to make and run them, the supply of which isn't increasing anywhere near quickly enough with very long lead times involved to find minerals, develop mines and so on. So commodities of all kinds.

Any business that has real pricing power, either due to technology, resources or brand value, has an advantage over the rest who are competed down to the lowest survivable pricing. So monopolies or duopolies with high barriers to entry or things where the name alone drives sales.

Crypto seems to have been huge beneficiaries of inflation so far. Cryptos do have the problem from a long term investing perspective however that there's now more than 10,000 of them and if every other industry is any guide, most won't survive in the long term. There's a high risk of stuffing up the implementation, picking the wrong one, even if the underlying idea sees huge growth.

Real estate also a major beneficiary of inflation thus far but I do wonder about the impact of interest rates, the potential for government regulation, rising nationalist sentiment and so on going forward? Plus in the case of commercial, to what extent is demand for office and retail space going to permanently diminish and never come back to pre-pandemic levels?

Note that I'm raising the question, I'm not saying I'm right. I am however thinking of a long term perspective - own it for the 2020's and sell when it's on the front page of Time or The Economist, not own it until some daily chart says sell it sometime early next year etc.
 

over9k

Forum jester
Joined
12 June 2020
Posts
3,193
Reaction score
3,191
The way I've looked at it is that if the currency of multiple countries is to be massively devalued then, short term movements aside, what ought to hold value by the time it's all done?

A flood of money is a claim on goods and the raw materials to make and run them, the supply of which isn't increasing anywhere near quickly enough with very long lead times involved to find minerals, develop mines and so on. So commodities of all kinds.

Any business that has real pricing power, either due to technology, resources or brand value, has an advantage over the rest who are competed down to the lowest survivable pricing. So monopolies or duopolies with high barriers to entry or things where the name alone drives sales.

Crypto seems to have been huge beneficiaries of inflation so far. Cryptos do have the problem from a long term investing perspective however that there's now more than 10,000 of them and if every other industry is any guide, most won't survive in the long term. There's a high risk of stuffing up the implementation, picking the wrong one, even if the underlying idea sees huge growth.

Real estate also a major beneficiary of inflation thus far but I do wonder about the impact of interest rates, the potential for government regulation, rising nationalist sentiment and so on going forward? Plus in the case of commercial, to what extent is demand for office and retail space going to permanently diminish and never come back to pre-pandemic levels?

Note that I'm raising the question, I'm not saying I'm right. I am however thinking of a long term perspective - own it for the 2020's and sell when it's on the front page of Time or The Economist, not own it until some daily chart says sell it sometime early next year etc.
Sure but something's got to drive that flood of money in the first place. Aside from healthcare, it's economic winter for nearly everyone.
 
Joined
20 July 2021
Posts
1,650
Reaction score
2,006
One area in which there is certain to be a demand expansion in is healthcare, and the reason why is quite simple:

60-80 years after a baby boom, you have a healthcare boom as all the baby boomers get old and start creaking.

Then you have a death boom.
( sigh) i noticed the hoop-la over the virus and decided that might be a 'safe-haven ' strategy i could dabble in so i bought some PFP ,
i know most folks would prefer IVC but i could never get the numbers to crunch attractively for me

although i am up nicely currently i do not expect this to be a multi-bagger , but am looking for a company that might survive ( as long as i do ) and pay a sprinkling of divs ( given i expect an economic downturn , eventually ( ever since 2013 i have been waiting for that downturn )
 
Joined
20 July 2021
Posts
1,650
Reaction score
2,006
look for nations that produce something , whether it is tea , rice , coffee and better still one with a naturally growing population , too much immigration runs the risk of social unrest

there a lot of places with big armies and mountains of debt that sounds like a bad place to invest to me
 

over9k

Forum jester
Joined
12 June 2020
Posts
3,193
Reaction score
3,191
First omicron case in the U.S positively ID'd. Markets now plummeting again. Seems to have been a total flash crash though as it took all of ten minutes to erase the losses.

Something tells me there's going to be a hard selloff tomorrow before the weekend.
 

over9k

Forum jester
Joined
12 June 2020
Posts
3,193
Reaction score
3,191
20% just in the last 5 days, 40% if you'd grabbed the inverse ETF before the trip down:

23546324573457453.jpg

See this trading stuff is easy - just buy on red days and sell on green ones.
 

over9k

Forum jester
Joined
12 June 2020
Posts
3,193
Reaction score
3,191
First omicron case in the U.S positively ID'd. Markets now plummeting again. Seems to have been a total flash crash though as it took all of ten minutes to erase the losses.

Something tells me there's going to be a hard selloff tomorrow before the weekend.
Scratch that. Things are mental. The nasdaq for example has gone +1.5 to -1.2 just on the day and there's still another 40 mins until close.

Amazing.
 
Top