Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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I do not know if any of you are even trying to fly out of the country, as a qld and australian inmate, it is very VERY hard
initial plan was australia europe americas and back-> just a wish list
Now we are down to Australia ->1 transit via LA then central america;
Not only logistic nightmare, you can easily imagine with the test and check recheck but also
VERY expensive with (nearly mandatory) insurance around $2k for 2 persons, worse will NOT cover you if our SMART travel recommendation switch to do not travel...
so basically 2k, quasi mandatory and probably useless and covering you zip.
Reset is here and toward completion of plan.
Escape is getting very HARD and only for the 1%
Add a nice market crash and we will soon gather in herds to take or boo cattle? trains filled with non Green check wearers..
We have put a deposit down on a trip, London, Norway, Germany, Hungary, then back home.
Leave here Oct 4/ 2023.
I may do my dough, but what the hell I can't take it with me and my departure date is getting closer. :cry:
 

over9k

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Brent crude's up 5% today. Yesterday was your degen play - the banks & energy companies bottomed at -7% on the day. ~22% if you went for a triple levered etf.

If you didn't do it then, you've missed this one.
 
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Building silicone is getting scarce. Up 34% and only to regular customers of suppliers.
Last time I was at Bunnings I wanted a very specific brush, it's an attachment to a powered device so it has to be that exact one, and Bunnings sells them. First store I went to there were none left in stock. Went to another store and bought the last one so now that store's out of stock too.

I also wanted a simple solar powered garden light but I wanted one the same as the others I've already got to replace a failed one. In short, well they have solar garden lights but that style was sold out at both stores. Looks like I'll have to buy one online if I can find a matching one.

OK, that's not critical stuff but still it's an example of things which were abundant and very easily obtained in the past but which are becoming more difficult to obtain now. In terms of inflation, well it cost me both time and money (fuel etc) to go to the second store that's further away. :2twocents
 

over9k

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Ok so big hearing with both yellen & powell facing the politicians today and, well, there's a lot to cover.

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Nahhhhhh, you think?


I'll make a rare disclosure of my actual numbers I'm playing with:

I've pumped over 6 figures into crypto mining in the last two quarters alone. Here is why:

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For a whole variety of reasons, I do not believe that we are going to see a deflationary or even just the desired reflationary environment, realistically speaking, for the better part of an entire generation, not least of all because governments have backed themselves into so much of a corner with national debt levels that they have literally no other choice but to monetise a really significant part of the debt.

In layman's terms, trillions of dollars of debt is going to be paid off with printed cash. That, simply put, is currency debasement. There's simply no other option at this point.
 
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over9k

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So this screencap really tells you everything now, every single headline and subline and datapoint on it are all part of the same interconnected story:

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The 2-10 year spread flattened over 10 basis points just on powell & yellen's comments alone. Interest rates are about to bounce and they are about to bounce significantly.

Hopefully everyone should know what that means by now as I've gone to painstaking lengths in this thread to explain how all this stuff is connected to markets and specifically which markets are effected and in what way and why but I can spell it out/spoon feed it to anyone that isn't still 100% confident.

As I mentioned in my last post, crypto IS the play here ;)
 

over9k

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Oh dear. It just keeps getting worse:

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And to get an idea of just how quickly all the trickle-down/out effects of rate spikes actually occur:

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Though we have this omicron variant playing merry hell with things too and that's a total uncertainty.


So omicron plus fed comments = armageddon in the markets.
 

over9k

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Now Yellen's saying "Government is extremely limited in its ability to solve supply chain problems", which is just twisting the knife at this point.

Jesus christ this is one of my best nights at work in months. I'm just sitting back and watching the absolute meltdown everyone are having over all of this. All the streamers, degens on reddit etc are losing their collective minds.
 

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34573735684356745.jpg

So what point on the chart do you think it was where moderna et al made a public statement saying they're not sure how effective their vaccines are going to be against this new strain?

(yes, that happened)
 

over9k

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And the politicking has begun:

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As I said a few days ago, there's going to be no shortage of political hay made of this. As you can see, the comments are working/markets are climbing out.

Rollercoaster of a day though.
 

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Aaaaand we end the day at session lows:

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Amazing. What a ride. And not in a good way.

Meanwhile, ethereum is up 5% on the day.
 
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This analysis of the US stock market is sobering. The analysis of the valuations of the most significant components of the DOW Jones index tops off the story

The Drop Is Coming And It Could Be Epic​

Nov. 29, 2021 4:54 PM ETAMD, GS, GS.PA, GS.PC, GS.PD, GS.PJ, GS.PK, MSFT, NVDA, SP500, TSLA302 Comments72 Likes

Summary​

  • Some things have been troubling me about the stock market lately.
  • Ah, where to begin? The S&P 500's technical image is deteriorating, for starters.
  • Next, the coronavirus continues to wreak havoc, and major economies could experience slowdowns again.
  • To complicate matters, the Fed is kicking off its taper program to be followed by rate hikes.
  • On top of all this, stocks are at some of their most expensive valuations in history.
 
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