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bigdog

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https://www.theage.com.au/business/...le-is-bad-news-for-trump-20181025-p50bu2.html

Why Wall Street's tumble is bad news for Trump
By Damian Paletta and Danielle Paquette
25 October 2018 — 11:09am

US stock markets fell sharply Wednesday, erasing all gains for the year and muddying one of President Donald Trump's favourite talking points two weeks before the midterm elections.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq fell 4.4 per cent Wednesday, its worst one-day drop since the financial crisis. The index has slid more than 12 per cent since the end of August. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, which tracks a broader group of US companies, has lost $US2 trillion ($2.8 trillion) in value since late September, down 9 per cent. The Dow Jones industrial average, meanwhile, lost 608 points Wednesday and is down 8.3 per cent in the past three weeks.

The financial swoon threatens to undermine a market rise for which Trump has frequently claimed credit and to highlight controversial aspects of Trump's agenda, including tariffs many companies are blaming for their struggles and a tax cut that polls suggest the public views as inadequately helpful for the middle class.

Trump has increasingly looked to shift focus away from economic indicators he once touted and toward immigration and other issues - and assign blame elsewhere for any economic setbacks.

He has pummelled the Federal Reserve, alleging higher interest rates pose the biggest risk to growth - even musing he might have made a mistake when he nominated Jerome Powell as the nation's top central banker less than a year ago. It is unusual for a president to attack the central bank - the Fed aims to maintain independence from the White House to avoid politics from tainting its economic decisions.

Trump has also promised a 10 per cent middle-class tax cut, a proposal that caught his aides by surprise and that lawmakers said was exceedingly unlikely in the near future.

In recent days, Trump has suggested he could mobilise the military to protect the southern border from a caravan of migrants, But he has said little about the recent stock-market movement.

"The president is very good at manipulating the narrative and getting people - either through traditional media or social media - to focus on what he wants them to focus on," said Brian Gardner, managing director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, an investment bank.

Trump's focus on immigration and his surprise proposal for a middle-class tax cut come as the strong economy exhibits signs of strain.

Beyond the slumping market, rates on 30-year mortgages are climbing, with many loans now eclipsing 5 per cent. Higher interest rates can limit borrowing, slowing home sales and the economy. And a range of businesses - including firms that Trump has praised, such as Harley-Davidson and United Technologies - is warning that the White House's trade strategy could cost them millions of dollars in lost revenue.

Forty-eight S&P 500 companies mentioned "tariffs" during calls with analysts in recent days, many warning that they threaten to cause a drag on the economy.

Trump has dismissed complaints from chief executives about the White House's trade policy, telling the Wall Street Journal that overpaid executives will not take responsibility for their own bad decisions.

"I have created such an incredible economy," Trump said in Montana last week. "I have created so many jobs."

Trump said repeatedly during the summer that the United States was experiencing the greatest economy in its history, largely citing the low unemployment rate. And Tuesday, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, he falsely denied imposing any tariffs on imports, even though he has implemented numerous tariffs against a range of countries this year.

His comments to the Journal directly contradict his Twitter post from a few hours earlier, in which he said the tariffs he had launched were bringing billions of dollars into the government's coffers. Trump has mischaracterised the way tariffs work, suggesting they are paid by other countries rather than by US companies that import the products - often passing those costs to US consumers.

White House officials have denied that Trump's recent behavior is driven by concerns about a weakening economy, saying the new tax plan, despite its surprise rollout, is meant to build on last year's tax law and help the middle class. And a number of senior officials have said the fundamentals of the economy remain strong, and the White House has an upbeat outlook for next year.

"Our job is to focus on what the economic numbers say, and the numbers are very solid right now," Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said in an interview. "If your policies have produced the numbers we are observing, then you shouldn't duck."

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a Republican economist, said the new tax-cut announcement struck many as an act of knee-jerk desperation.

"I don't think it helps to have the president invent a tax cut," he said. "That looks panicky. That hurts the larger effort. That wasn't the White House. That was him."

Job growth during Trump's presidency is roughly comparable to the last four years of the Obama administration, though the jobless rate is lower and economic growth has picked up. Economists are mixed on whether this is sustainable, with some cautioning the gains from tax cuts and higher federal spending are temporary.

"It's easy to say [Trump is] trying to set the Fed up for the fall here, but a lot of people were warning that the president was taking a risk and Republicans were taking a risk by putting forward a bunch of fiscal stimulus at this point the business cycle," said James Pethokoukis, a policy analyst at the American Enterprise Institute.

New-home sales sank for the fourth straight month in September, reflecting the impact of mortgage rates that now top 5 per cent for many borrowers.

Sales of new single-family homes last month fell 5.5 per cent from the previous month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 553,000, according to a government report. September's sales volume was more than 13 per cent lower than the same month one year earlier, and figures for June, July and August were also revised down.

Though the strong labour market is likely to support demand, some economists are beginning to worry about collateral damage from a housing downturn.

"The economy cannot grow at a sustainable 3 per cent pace for long if new-home sales continue to tumble," warned economist Chris Rupkey of MUFG Union Bank.

Many executives had hoped trade fights with China and other countries would be resolved swiftly, but it appears a number of disagreements will drag into at least next year.

The $US260 billion in tariffs Trump unleashed on Beijing took effect in this year's third quarter, covering roughly half of what the United States buys from China.

American companies have warned for months that Trump's trade war with China and other nations could wrench their bottom lines, and now they are quantifying that damage in dour earnings reports.

Ford recently reported levies on metals will shave $US1 billion off the automaker's profits, while consumer-goods giant Honeywell said it expects to absorb "hundred of millions of dollars" in new duty-related costs.

Minnesota manufacturer 3M projected a loss next year of $US100 million, blaming "tariff head winds." Caterpillar shares took the sharpest dive in seven years after the tractor maker said the commercial battle between the world's two largest economies was driving up the price of steel.

Walmart cautioned that prices could swell because a third of the products on its shelves arrive from outside the United States - and many are labeled "Made in China."

United Technologies, which once lauded Trump for saving its Carrier subsidiary's Indianapolis furnace factory, has changed its public stance on the president's economic moves, saying his flurry of levies will sting to the tune of $US200 million.

And Harley-Davidson said this week the duties will zap $US20 million out of its wallet this year and that retaliatory tariffs from the European Union could deal an additional $US45 million blow.

More than a third of the 110 S&P 500 companies that have shared third-quarter earnings since Tuesday have discussed the impact of higher border taxes during their conference calls with analysts, according to the investor research group FactSet.

Some companies have appealed directly to the administration, urging Trump to lower the trade barriers before the burden falls on American shoppers.

"As the largest retailer in the United States and a major buyer of US manufactured goods, we are very concerned about the impacts these tariffs would have on our business, our customers, our suppliers and the US economy as a whole," Walmart wrote in a late-September letter to US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

Several economic factors could converge in the coming weeks to put more pressure on growth, including a decision from Powell about whether to again raise a key borrowing rate in December and an expected fight over federal spending levels. The results of those could give investors and households a new perspective on Trump's stewardship of an economy that looks much different than it did one year ago.

Offering one of the last snapshots of the economy before the midterm elections, the government is scheduled to release economic data Friday that measures how much the economy grew from July through September. Analysts diverge strongly on how strong or weak the report will be.

The Washington Post
 

Ann

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Way back in the 90's I bought a book called "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets" by Stan Weinstein. It was the first charting book I had ever read and was transfixed by his charts. I still own it along with a mass of other charting books since purchased. Weinstein had a chart showing the "Four-Year Presidential Cycle" from 1886 until 1983. The graph shows the market rising well in the election year then the following year it falls and continues to fall into the first half of the third year and then it begins to rise again and continues to rise a little more until it levels off a bit.

......and now I just googled and found the very chart of which I was speaking. YAY! Let the chart speak for itself.

https://stock2own.wordpress.com/2012/01/25/the-four-year-presidential-cycle/
 
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Way back in the 90's I bought a book called "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets" by Stan Weinstein. It was the first charting book I had ever read and was transfixed by his charts. I still own it along with a mass of other charting books since purchased. Weinstein had a chart showing the "Four-Year Presidential Cycle" from 1886 until 1983. The graph shows the market rising well in the election year then the following year it falls and continues to fall into the first half of the third year and then it begins to rise again and continues to rise a little more until it levels off a bit.

......and now I just googled and found the very chart of which I was speaking. YAY! Let the chart speak for itself.

https://stock2own.wordpress.com/2012/01/25/the-four-year-presidential-cycle/

Shows the impact of psychology.

Everyone thinks a new pres will make change and work miracles then they find out he can't and late in his term people are hoping a new pres will work miracles ....
 

Ann

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Shows the impact of psychology.

Everyone thinks a new pres will make change and work miracles then they find out he can't and late in his term people are hoping a new pres will work miracles ....

You may be right SR, it could just come down to this simple bit of psychology.
 

bigdog

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upload_2019-1-11_9-22-10.png

Instead of being restrained by the system, Donald Trump is allowing his inner monster to prevail.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-...er-tantrum-from-disaster-20190110-p50qka.html

The Ineffable Hulk, Trump is always one temper tantrum from disaster
..
You have to hand it to Donald Trump. He has remarkable verbal agility, even if he seems to combine it with functional illiteracy. For several years President Trump has dismissed all criticism as "fake news", a catchy phrase that has undermined the free press in America and has now been adopted by dictators around the world.

Last month he riffed on that reference, tweeting about the "Fake News Universe" in which CNN and others dwell. The universe in which Trump himself seems to dwell is not the Fake News Universe, but the Marvel Cinematic Universe. It is a mad world of extreme danger, ridiculous plot twists and ludicrous characters. And of all the Marvel characters, The Donald is especially reminiscent of The Hulk.

The Hulk is the destructive green alter ego of Bruce Banner, a mild-mannered nuclear scientist. When Bruce Banner gets angry, he transforms into a super-sized raging monster. No one is accusing Trump of being a nuclear scientist. However, before he took office many believed his Hulk-like characteristics could be controlled.

A senior Australian official told me after Trump’s election that the American system would "wrap its arms around him" and normalise him. Appointees would run the country. It is not working out that way. The Hulk cannot be tamed.

Certainly, there have been instances where Trump looks like a conventional president, for example when he ordered air strikes against the al-Shayrat airfield in April 2017, in response to Syria’s use of chemical weapons. Sometimes he can string together a few weeks of appearing normal.

But then, usually at a moment of stress or anger, Trump snaps and transforms into The Hulk. He veers from his talking points and says and does awful things. Recall his discreditable response, only a short time after the al-Shayrat air strikes, to the murder of a young woman in Charlottesville by white supremacists.

On foreign policy, The Hulk is dominating Bruce Banner. Trump’s international instincts are shockingly unorthodox: he is partial to isolationism, allergic to free trade, sceptical of alliances and attracted to strongmen. Repeatedly his presidential garb has split open at the seams to reveal his true character.

He junked the Iran nuclear deal and pulled out of the Paris climate accord. He dissed the collective security guarantee of the NATO treaty. He withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and levied tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese imports. He dubbed himself "Tariff Man", which sounds like a particularly lame character in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

And he pandered to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and emboldened an international league of strongmen, including the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte, Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Italy’s Matteo Salvini and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman.

The Hulk has not completely driven America’s behaviour in the world, of course. The Trump influence on US foreign policy has been checked by opposition from within his administration. Agents of the Deep State – a little like Marvel's law-enforcing agents from S.H.I.E.L.D. – have prevented the President from doing irreparable damage to America’s foreign relationships. However, these agents have progressively left the administration. The last two – defence secretary Jim Mattis and chief of staff John Kelly – are now gone.

As the constraints fall away, we will increasingly be left with the rage-fuelled behaviour of the Big Green Stupid. The stinging defeat in the November 2018 mid-term elections will not help. Given the likelihood of gridlock in Washington, the President may well get Trumpier in his foreign policy – or, if you like, Hulkier – because he has more elbow room on the world scene.

In other words, we may see even more of The Hulk in the future. Certainly, photos from the White House reveal that the President is bulking up.

Like all comic book characters, of course, The Hulk has a weakness. He is not exactly bright. He can barely put two words together. Equally, President Trump lacks the patience, focus and discipline to effectively implement his will. He is not really interested in developing policy. He is interested in being seen to win.

So far, this has limited the harm he has been able to do to US interests and the world order. However, we should not be too sanguine. President Trump is yet to face an externally generated crisis. Most of his problems have been self-made.

President Barack Obama came to office in the midst of a major financial crisis. Imagine if another crisis of that scale occurs, and our last line of defence is The Hulk?

This week Donald Trump made the case for a border wall in a televised address to the nation. He was unusually subdued – Banneresque, you might say. Then came the inevitable transformation. In a meeting with Democratic congressional leaders the next day, Trump reportedly slammed his hand on the table and stormed out when they refused to fund the wall.

The Hulk is only ever one temper tantrum away.
 
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The end game is in sight for Donald Trump. The Mueller investigation is almost over. But just to get the highlights into the public arena Michael Cohen will be testifying in Congress on Feb 7th . (Assuming he doesn't fall sick/under a bus or something..)

Michael Cohen to testify publicly before Congress in February
Former Trump lawyer says he accepted invitation from top Democrat and will offer ‘full and credible account of events’

Ben Jacobs in Washington and agencies


@Bencjacobs

Fri 11 Jan 2019 09.25 AEDT


1534.jpg

Cohen’s testimony will mark the first major public oversight hearing for the new Democratic House majority. Photograph: Jeenah Moon/Reuters
Donald Trump’s longtime lawyer and aide Michael Cohen says he has accepted an invitation from a top House Democrat to testify publicly before Congress next month.

His testimony before the House oversight and reform committee on 7 February will be the first major public oversight hearing for Democrats, who have promised greater scrutiny of Trump after winning control of the House in the 2018 midterm elections.

Cohen said in a statement: “I look forward to having the privilege of being afforded a platform with which to give a full and credible account of the events which have transpired.”

The New Yorker, who is to begin a three-year prison sentence in March, is a pivotal figure in investigations by the special counsel Robert Mueller into potential collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign, and by federal prosecutors in New York into campaign finance violations related to hush-money payments to two women who say they had sex with Trump.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/10/michael-cohen-congress-house-testimony-trump
 

Logique

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Record low unemployment, record jobs for hispanics, blacks and women; record economic growth; diplomacy breakthrough with North Korea.. median household income rose to $61,372 in 2017, a post-recession high; wages up in August by their fastest rate since June 2009; paychecks rose by 3.3 percent between 2016 and 2017, the most in a decade...

No, better to replace someone like that with these guys
Democrat_Sauron_Jan2019_25.jpg
 
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Record low unemployment, record jobs for hispanics, blacks and women; record economic growth; diplomacy breakthrough with North Korea.. median household income rose to $61,372 in 2017, a post-recession high; wages up in August by their fastest rate since June 2009; paychecks rose by 3.3 percent between 2016 and 2017, the most in a decade...

No, better to replace someone like that with these guys
View attachment 91275
Yep another true Trumpian.

You can follow him him over the cliff - or perhaps you like to take the top bunk ?
 

tech/a

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Unfortunately, that's his only positive attribute.

Its a trait which will upset many but things get done.
He is elected leader and is leading.

You maybe surprised at how he is being perceived.

He has bought back employment and the stock market loves it.
He shut up Rocket man.
He is attacking the illegal immigrant issue head on.
China is quiet and watching --- with respect.

Sure there is a group who are hurting bad because they no longer
run the place---so all systems out--Dump Trump.
Happens in most corners of the planet with different players!
 

IFocus

You are arguing with a Galah
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Things always go up when you throw free money around, $1.5 Trillion debt make debt great again


BTW wages growth still at or below inflation
 

Darc Knight

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Unfortunately, that's his only positive attribute.

Shrivelled up I suspect. I'm guessing he's on TRT (which causes shutdown of natural testosterone production and ball shrinkage) due to his reported diet, lack of exercise, temperament, sex drive and ego.
 

tech/a

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Nothing new
 

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wayneL

Trading the Apocalypse
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Its a trait which will upset many but things get done.
He is elected leader and is leading.

You maybe surprised at how he is being perceived.

He has bought back employment and the stock market loves it.
He shut up Rocket man.
He is attacking the illegal immigrant issue head on.
China is quiet and watching --- with respect.

Sure there is a group who are hurting bad because they no longer
run the place---so all systems out--Dump Trump.
Happens in most corners of the planet with different players!
9/10 of my American colleagues love him.
 

wayneL

Trading the Apocalypse
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Trump will win 2020... Unless of course all Dems haven't moved to the dystopian Canada like they said they would
..and lied.

But he'll still win
 

Knobby22

Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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Trump will win 2020... Unless of course all Dems haven't moved to the dystopian Canada like they said they would
..and lied.

But he'll still win
I predict it will be his own party that ensure he doesn't get to run.
 
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