Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

DrBourse TA Help for Beginners

DrBourse
Seen any Mermaids during the cruise ? :)

When you back?? Was hoping, you might have a look please at Newcrest, as it is doing thy head in.
Stay safe cruising the seven seas...
Farmerge sends his regards, he is a great grandfather now...

Kind regards
rcw1
Hi rcw,
just noticed an old post from Late Last Yr - My thoughts on NCM are as follows:-

19/1/23 @ 12.33pm - TA suggests that NCM Uptrend should continue.

Recent Kicking Candle Formation followed today by what looks like being a Piercing Candle Formation.

Todays Candle looks like bouncing off one of 3 Support Lines (Centre of Linear Regression, or Dotted Line Uptrend, or the Long Term Support Line)

Tomorrows CCI will give the best ST pointer - & the MFI will give the best MT/LT pointer.

1674095761572.png
 
Good evening @DrBourse,

Wasn't so long ago that Woodside struck the $16 level. Recall it well as bought in and sold pretty soon afterwards as the SP bounced back into the $20 plus range. Allot of water has flowed under the bridge since then. Bounce $34 - $34.90

How many periods did you use to calculate the CCI Index? trend
Entry and exist points look good to rcw1 well done.
$46.11, for mine, will take some doing...

Kind regards
rcw1
rcw,
the following is a snapshot from the Trading View Software Program that I use.
My Buy Price is a bit lower than TV @ $24.00.
My IV's are pretty close to those of TV.
And my Target Price of $46.11 is exactly the same as TV.
20230120 WDS Trading Views Forecast.jpg
DrB
 
rcw,
the following is a snapshot from the Trading View Software Program that I use.
My Buy Price is a bit lower than TV @ $24.00.
My IV's are pretty close to those of TV.
And my Target Price of $46.11 is exactly the same as TV.
View attachment 151897
DrB
My Calculations done 30/10/22 are as follows.
20221030 WDS DrB IV Calculations.jpg
20221030 WDS DrB IV Calculations Part 2.jpg
20221030 WDS DrB IV Calculations Part 3.jpg
20221030 WDS DrB IV Calculations Part 3.jpg
About $46.11 or $47.12 seem 2B the accepted Norm.
DrB
 

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  • 20221030 WDS DrB IV Calculations Part 4.jpg
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My Calculations done 30/10/22 are as follows.
View attachment 151898
View attachment 151899
View attachment 151900
View attachment 151902
About $46.11 or $47.12 seem 2B the accepted Norm.
DrB
Hi rcw1,

Make sure you read gg’s AFR article in the Forum “FMG – Fortescue Metals” .

Be careful with FMG over the next few days - FSUGY was up 1.32% (USD$0.42), probably B4 the “Power Plug” CEO dropped his Minor Bombshell – So the news is prob not yet priced into FSUGY.


I had a Sell on FMG 13/1/2320230127 FMG Cht (1).jpg
Trading Views Analysts Report for FMG is as follows:-
20230127 FMG TV Analysts.jpg

I still reckon FMG is worth $30-00 + per share, but not till later this year. so I will wait for my Buy Price to appear.

Cheers M8
DrB
 
Hi rcw1

I know you are fond of NHC – so here’s some useless info for you to think abt.

IMO NHC’s rise from the $2-00 area back in Nov 2021 should continue……As you know there have been a few announcements/releases since that time that have pushed the SP up to the current levels of $6.00 to $7.00.

Well – here’s my take on the ST/MT TA that suggests a MT/LT Target of around the $9.00 level.

  • 5/1/23, 12/1/23 & 27/1/23 Candles have all Bounced off the “7/11/22 to 11/11/22 Benchmark Candle Formation Centreline” (pages 197 to 199)…….Those 3 points ‘could’ be interpreted as a Triple Bottom.
  • The candles for 27/1/23 & 30/1/23 have also Bounced off the recent 8mth Uptrend Line.
  • Then we notice that Most Indicators, and in particular, my CCI & MFI Combination have both shown ‘signs of life’ – the CCI rising from Oversold Territory (pages 37 to 43) & the MFI is rising from the Range Trading or Channel Trading Area (also pages 37 to 43).
20230130 NHC Chart.jpg

Unfortunately, I don’t see my $4.00 Buy Price reappearing again anytime soon.

As Usual DYOR.

Cheers M8
 
Hi rcw1

I know you are fond of NHC – so here’s some useless info for you to think abt.

IMO NHC’s rise from the $2-00 area back in Nov 2021 should continue……As you know there have been a few announcements/releases since that time that have pushed the SP up to the current levels of $6.00 to $7.00.

Well – here’s my take on the ST/MT TA that suggests a MT/LT Target of around the $9.00 level.

  • 5/1/23, 12/1/23 & 27/1/23 Candles have all Bounced off the “7/11/22 to 11/11/22 Benchmark Candle Formation Centreline” (pages 197 to 199)…….Those 3 points ‘could’ be interpreted as a Triple Bottom.
  • The candles for 27/1/23 & 30/1/23 have also Bounced off the recent 8mth Uptrend Line.
  • Then we notice that Most Indicators, and in particular, my CCI & MFI Combination have both shown ‘signs of life’ – the CCI rising from Oversold Territory (pages 37 to 43) & the MFI is rising from the Range Trading or Channel Trading Area (also pages 37 to 43).
View attachment 152324

Unfortunately, I don’t see my $4.00 Buy Price reappearing again anytime soon.

As Usual DYOR.

Cheers M8
Br B just seen that you are back Happy New year to you.
 
Hi rcw1

I know you are fond of NHC – so here’s some useless info for you to think abt.

IMO NHC’s rise from the $2-00 area back in Nov 2021 should continue……As you know there have been a few announcements/releases since that time that have pushed the SP up to the current levels of $6.00 to $7.00.

Well – here’s my take on the ST/MT TA that suggests a MT/LT Target of around the $9.00 level.

  • 5/1/23, 12/1/23 & 27/1/23 Candles have all Bounced off the “7/11/22 to 11/11/22 Benchmark Candle Formation Centreline” (pages 197 to 199)…….Those 3 points ‘could’ be interpreted as a Triple Bottom.
  • The candles for 27/1/23 & 30/1/23 have also Bounced off the recent 8mth Uptrend Line.
  • Then we notice that Most Indicators, and in particular, my CCI & MFI Combination have both shown ‘signs of life’ – the CCI rising from Oversold Territory (pages 37 to 43) & the MFI is rising from the Range Trading or Channel Trading Area (also pages 37 to 43).
View attachment 152324

Unfortunately, I don’t see my $4.00 Buy Price reappearing again anytime soon.

As Usual DYOR.

Cheers M8
Ta m8
Rcw1
 
Interesting PLS Chart atm.

CCI Divergence Sell Signals (pages 109 & 36 to 43) started on 23/1/23, and again on 24/1/23.

Those Signals were confirmed on 25/1/23 when the CCI crossed DOWN through its WMA, so ideally the sell point was on late on 25/1/23 or early on 27/1/23, because the MFI (page 95) gave its Sell Signal early on 27/1/23.

Now we wait for the inevitable Bounce off the Benchmark Candle Centreline (pages 197 to 199) @ $4.54, OR the Linear Regression Centreline (pages 139 to 142) at about $4.15, then there are 2 more Support Lines below $4.15.

Note that the MFI has also given ReEntry Signals on 1/2/23 & 2/2/23, BUT we need a confirming signal from the CCI.

Note also that the CCI gave us a SHH on 20/1/23 (page 108)

20230207 PLS Chart.jpg
DYOR
Cheers.
DrB
 
Interesting PLS Chart atm.

CCI Divergence Sell Signals (pages 109 & 36 to 43) started on 23/1/23, and again on 24/1/23.

Those Signals were confirmed on 25/1/23 when the CCI crossed DOWN through its WMA, so ideally the sell point was on late on 25/1/23 or early on 27/1/23, because the MFI (page 95) gave its Sell Signal early on 27/1/23.

Now we wait for the inevitable Bounce off the Benchmark Candle Centreline (pages 197 to 199) @ $4.54, OR the Linear Regression Centreline (pages 139 to 142) at about $4.15, then there are 2 more Support Lines below $4.15.

Note that the MFI has also given ReEntry Signals on 1/2/23 & 2/2/23, BUT we need a confirming signal from the CCI.

Note also that the CCI gave us a SHH on 20/1/23 (page 108)

View attachment 152730
DYOR
Cheers.
DrB
Arvo Dr B I, fortunately didn't require your wisdom to get out of PLS. the Sage proded me into a sell this morning. Though I notice if those that were game enough to buy in at the day's low and with a reasonable number of shares would have picked up a tidy sum if they had sold later on.
A few ifs and buts, but a quid can still be made as long as the coconuts are large enough.
 
Arvo Dr B I, fortunately didn't require your wisdom to get out of PLS. the Sage proded me into a sell this morning. Though I notice if those that were game enough to buy in at the day's low and with a reasonable number of shares would have picked up a tidy sum if they had sold later on.
A few ifs and buts, but a quid can still be made as long as the coconuts are large enough.
:roflmao:
 
Arvo Dr B I, fortunately didn't require your wisdom to get out of PLS. the Sage proded me into a sell this morning. Though I notice if those that were game enough to buy in at the day's low and with a reasonable number of shares would have picked up a tidy sum if they had sold later on.
A few ifs and buts, but a quid can still be made as long as the coconuts are large enough.

in my very limited trading experience , i have found it prudent to adjust the plan , if the market doesn't move in the desired direction ( either dash straight back to the sidelines , watching and waiting , or doing the opposite to what was originally planned )

part of a trader's skill ( if they are going to be successful ) is to guess if a price move will generate enough profit for them , and have the ability to modify the strategy if needed during the trade

SOMETIMES i have both a buy and sell order current on the same share ( QBE is a perennial for that strategy around reporting time )

 
in my very limited trading experience , i have found it prudent to adjust the plan , if the market doesn't move in the desired direction ( either dash straight back to the sidelines , watching and waiting , or doing the opposite to what was originally planned )

part of a trader's skill ( if they are going to be successful ) is to guess if a price move will generate enough profit for them , and have the ability to modify the strategy if needed during the trade

SOMETIMES i have both a buy and sell order current on the same share ( QBE is a perennial for that strategy around reporting time )

Hear, hear.
 
A brief explanation of Linear Regression.
As a follow up to my post #32, dated 1/8/21 on page 2 in this Forum - I would like to add the following ;-.........

On a Chart, when the Linear Regression is in a "SHALLOW & MILD UPTREND or DOWNTREND", I would look at the Bottom Line of the Linear Regression as approximately where the IV rests - the Linear Regression Centreline is where IMO punters will push the SP to – and the Linear Regression Top line is where the Idiots of this world will push the SP to – The trick is to judge Entry & Exit Points along the way – that’s where the CCI/MFI combination comes into play.

Cheers.
DrB.
 
For the benefit of any interested Beginners & Newbies, I Thought I would post yet another Example of how the Benchmark Candle Formation works …..

Two weeks ago, Back on 29/1/23 @ 3.35pm in the Forum “Gold Price – Where is it heading” on page nr 697, as post #13,935, when the POG was 1927.730, I posted the following comments:-

“My take on Gold is that we are heading for 1910 by Friday 3/2/23 where the price should Bounce off the Linear regression Centre Line (pages139 – 142)……… If that fails, then I would be looking at 1877 on 10/2/23 which is the Benchmark Candle Formation Centreline (pages197 – 199)”.

Here is that chart ;-
20230129 Gold Cht.png

Now here is the chart today 17/2/23 at 12.03pm.
20230217 XAUUSD Gold Cht.png

See how the POG moves close to each of the 6 relative Support/Resistance Lines of the Linear Regression Indicator & the Benchmark Candle Formation.

Anyone game enough to make a call on where the POG will be in two weeks time??.

I’m not.

From my perspective there are a few mixed signals floating about at this time.

For example, the CCI looks promising as it is beginning to rise from Oversold Territory BUT the MFI still looks very sad (pages 37 – 43).
AND
The candles for 16/2/23 and so far for Today 17/2/23 show Loss of Momentum (pages 17 & 101).
AND
The last 3 days candles have all closed Below the Linear Regressions Entry Zone (pages 139 – 142).
AND
Candles for 6/2/23 to 17/2/23 show Lack of Direction (page 5).
AND
The candles for 2/2/23 & 3/2/23 form another Benchmark Candle Formation, which would mean there would be another set of Sup/Res Lines to watch.
AND
The CCI SHH dated 1/12/22 is still in play while the MFI is in Overbought Territory.

I need to see what the candles for 20/2/23 & 21/2/23 actually are B4 I even consider recalculating POG’s ST direction.

Cheers…
DrB
 
Interesting PLS Chart atm.

CCI Divergence Sell Signals (pages 109 & 36 to 43) started on 23/1/23, and again on 24/1/23.

Those Signals were confirmed on 25/1/23 when the CCI crossed DOWN through its WMA, so ideally the sell point was on late on 25/1/23 or early on 27/1/23, because the MFI (page 95) gave its Sell Signal early on 27/1/23.

Now we wait for the inevitable Bounce off the Benchmark Candle Centreline (pages 197 to 199) @ $4.54, OR the Linear Regression Centreline (pages 139 to 142) at about $4.15, then there are 2 more Support Lines below $4.15.

Note that the MFI has also given ReEntry Signals on 1/2/23 & 2/2/23, BUT we need a confirming signal from the CCI.

Note also that the CCI gave us a SHH on 20/1/23 (page 108)

View attachment 152730
DYOR
Cheers.
DrB
Hi Rabbit......Did you see my attached 7/2/23 post on PLS?....
B Careful M8.
 
And here is another Benchmark Candle Formation that I had forgotten about.....This time it's for RIC.....
I emailed it to a mate of mine who was about to buy RIC on 16/11/22......
20221116 RIC Cht.png
Only just found out that there were a few successful trades that I missed during the period 16/11/22 to today (17/2/23) where the SP bounced between the Benchmark Candle Formations Centreline & its Bottom Line....
Then yesterday & again today 17/2/23, the SP hit the Top Line, where the Sellers suggest little or no more upside in the ST.
20230217 RIC Cht.png
DAM - bit annoyed that I missed out on RIC.
Next time he asks abt a stock I will pay more attention. :(
Cheers...
DrB.
 
Hi farmer,.....

Refer to my post in this forum dated 7/2/23......Beginners should note that this is an example of what I mean abt "looking at both past price action, past indicator movements, past candle construction & formations, and past company announcements etc. etc.".......

PLS was in a similar Technical position back on 15/12/22.....Look at where the CCI was then.......
Comparing that past example to todays position (17/2/23) we would expect PLS to drop to $3.63....That TA is based on the CCI SHH Phenomenon (pages 108 & 109) which is REVERSED in the PLS current situation, that is, staying low for a while.
Good Luck with PLS M8.
20230218 PLS Chart.png
 
Beginner’s lesson for today is on page 30 (shown below)……
20230219 Page 030 Containment Candles.JPG

And now, here is an interesting chart of SOL as at COB 17/2/23 showing the “Containment Candles Formation”.……
20230219 SOL Containment Candles Cht.png

Note that the formation is on 28/12/22 & 29/12/22, then note how 4 of the next 5 candles bounce off the Bottom Line (BL)……

Then note that after the SP breaks above the Top Line (TL) 11 trading days later on 16/1/23, it begins to bounce off that Top Line (TL) – So from 16/1/23 that Top Line immediately becomes a “Minor Support Line” going forward – AND the Bottom Line (BL) becomes a “Major Support Line” going forward.

As additional TA observations – Note that on 17/2/23 there was a Red Candle and that the CCI dropped, and that the MFI was Flat.

Your call on where the SP will go on 20/2/23 – bearing in mind the SP has only one Resistance Line above the $29.15 SP, and it has 5 Support Lines immediately below.
Note that the Trading View Analysts have a Target Price (TP) of $29.60 on SOL atm – which just happens to be my “100 day Linear Regression Top Line” atm.
Cheers.
DrB
 
Was just beginning to look @ the ALD Financials and when I flashed up the chart, a few signals that were not so obvious to me last week suddenly looks very obvious…..

That’s just the way TA hits you, maybe it was just a different chart setting, dunno…..

Anyhow…..

The First explanations revolves around page 35 “Other Candle Signals”.

The Second post revolves around page 19 “Inverted Head & Shoulders”.

And the Third post revolves around pages 203 to 212 “Gaps”.
 
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