Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

CXL - Calix Limited

Bell Potter research CXL speculative Buy rating and $9 price target: mostly based on LEILAC and the potential for a royalty stream.
Bell Potter research CXL speculative Buy rating and $9 price target: mostly based on LEILAC and the potential for a royalty stream.
And Pilbara mentioned their little JV .... saw some commentator think it as being high-risk. Would be nice if it isn't :)

Mid-stream JV (lithium salts >35% Li2O)
Innovative “value added” refining process using flash calcination
• Joint venture agreements signed with Calix
• Development of Demonstration Plant at Pilgangoora and future commercialisation of process
And Pilbara mentioned their little JV .... saw some commentator think it as being high-risk. Would be nice if it isn't :)

We know Calix has many many speculative prospects going on, LEILAC on the other hand is a mature technology with known outcomes and global implications and a very high probability of global adoption and royalty revenues.
...not marked as market sensitive ! but CXL is up to 5.88

The Solar Methanol Project, of which it is a consortium member, has been awarded funding to develop the production of sustainable fuels from captured process CO2 emissions.

As announced by the Hon Chris Bowen MP, Minister for Climate Change and Energy on 27 January, the “HyGATE” Solar Methanol Project has been awarded AU$19.48 million from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) and €13.2 million (~AU$20.19m) from Germany’s Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) to develop a world-first green methanol demonstration plant in Port Augusta, South Australia.

• The Solar Methanol Project, involving a consortium of partners from Australia and Germany, aims to develop a world-first methanol production demonstration plant using renewable energy, green hydrogen and captured industrial CO2.
• To synthesise “green” methanol, the Project intends to use up to 15,000 tonnes per annum ofCO2 captured by Calix’s Low Emissions Intensity Lime and Cement (Leilac) technology during the production of low emissions lime.
• As part of its net zero emissions pathway, Adbri (ASX:ABC) is partnering with Calix and Leilac to explore opportunities to produce low and zero emissions lime.
• The green methanol produced by the Project will be developed into sustainable fuels for the maritime and aviation sectors, two of the hardest-to-abate transport sectors responsible for 4.3% of global CO2 emissions
Half yearly out. Increasing number count, still got some cash . Busy busy...

And another application for Leilac, this time looking at stripping CO2 from atmosphere

DAC - Direct air capture, sweet little video explaining the process.

The Leilac process decarbonises limestone that is then re carbonised via direct capture then treated via Leilac - repeat.
Limestone is used over and over to capture and then release carbon.
Royalties, baby yes, that's what im talkin' about.
The future is out there.. but how far away?

Just dropping in something, noting there had been a sell off in Feb-Mar from near 6 to just above 4. Some buying seems to be returning over the last few days, now 4.58. If it had stayed low, I might well have tipped CXL for April comp, but now not so sure.

LTH (speccie)
Any news to explain today's sudden volatility?
I was interested in the recent BO > 5.10, but not so much now.

Edit: "We know nothing" response to ASX price volatility enquiry.
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Decreased buy order to a speculative size. This allows me to be comfortable if price continues to fall another 15% when the rumour becomes news. If price goes >5.20 again I can add to this parcel with a reduced average price.
A lot of shares sold today, maybe the steam is going out of the "clean" bubble and everyone is getting a bit of announcement fatigue.
Will Calix ever be part of this ecosystem ?
“..particularly with the OEMs [original equipment manufacturers], there's a lot of conversation around sustainable production… .. about how we produce lithium, the steps that we go to make as sure as possible, as ultimately, our customers, the OEMs value proposition to their customer is about cleaner energy”
- Jerry Masters, CEO, Albermarle Corp [world’s largest lithium producer]
And an update on Pilbara plant. ... pushing ahead .... $4.25

Since entering into the JV on 28 November 2022, significant progress has been made in the detailed front-end engineering and design (FEED) of the proposed demonstration plant in support of a Final Investment Decision (FID) which is expected to be put to the Boards of both companies for approval in the near term.

As the date for FID was originally targeted for the end of the 2023 Financial Year, both JV parties have agreed to bring forward certain project expenditure in respect of detailed engineering, initially planned for post-FID, to ensure the delivery schedule and development of the project continues unimpeded. Both parties remain committed to finalising the studies to support the FID, which are now at an advanced stage, with a decision expected to be made on or about the end of July.

The development of the demonstration plant is supported by $20m in Australian Government funding announced under the Modern Manufacturing Initiative. The MMI Grant Agreement between Pilbara Minerals and the Australian Government (Department of Industry, Science and Resources) was executed on 28 April 2023 and an initial payment of A$8m toward the project was received by Pilbara Minerals on 31 May 2023
Royalty's baby yes, thats what im talkin about.
a few days late, but it's a YES from me .

• Final Investment Decision has been made to progress the construction and operation of a Mid-Stream Demonstration Plant at the Pilgangoora Operation in joint venture between Pilbara Minerals Limited and Calix Limited.
• The Project aims to demonstrate the benefits of producing a mid-stream lithium enriched product using Calix’s patented electric kiln technology which has the potential to reduce hard-rock lithium processing carbon emission intensity if powered by renewable energy.
• Independent Life Cycle Assessment studies estimate that converting spodumene using electric calcination when using 100% renewable energy has the potential to reduce calcination carbon emissions intensity by >80%, which would materially reduce carbon emissions in one of the most energy intensive steps of the lithium battery materials production process.
• Delivering a more lithium-enriched mid-stream product has the potential for industry wide benefits including reduced transport of waste, greater value creation and utilisation of the mineral resource and unlocking future assets with limited transport infrastructure.
• Estimated construction costs of $104.9M will be partially funded with a $20M Australian Government grant with Pilbara Minerals now funding $67.4M of the remaining budgeted construction expenditure
Calix up for $17.5m ... so, who's got the money?

Project Construction Costs
Budgeted construction costs of the Project of up to $104.9M will now be funded by the parties pursuant to a revised construction cost split of 79% : 21% (PLS : Calix), with the Australian Government contributing A$20M received under the Modern Manufacturing Initiative (MMI) grant signed on 28 April 2023. Pilbara Minerals and Calix had previously agreed a 65%:35% construction cost split with the royalty free use of Calix’s calciner technology for the Project on an exclusive basis being recognised as a 10% in-kind contribution on the budgeted construction costs.

The parties have since agreed to alter the cost split in recognition of the revised construction cost of the calciner and other elements of the Demonstration Plant, and in exchange for revising the terms of the royalty rate payable if Pilbara Minerals adopts the electric calcination technology for a mid-stream plant at Pilgangoora or for future commercial plants, including with joint venture partners. The revised net royalty payable by Pilbara Minerals in the event of commercial scale adoption would be based on a percentage of FOB revenue, at a rate consistent with a standard licence or royalty on the net benefit of the technology and is commercial in confidence. Any additional capital costs abovebudgeted expenditure of $104.9M will be funded by the parties in accordance with their participating interests in the JV at 55% : 45% (Pilbara : Calix) which remain unchanged
Another capital raising ?
Inevitable. But when? And/or, how much control do they give away?

Timelines are long, plus lots of irons in the fire.
.... from May preso:

For this project
  • Complete detailed engineering - March Quarter 2024
  • Construction commencement - June Quarter 2024
  • Commence concentrate processing commissioning - March Quarter 2025
  • First lithium salt produced - June Quarter 2025
  • Ramp up to steady state production - March Quarter 2026
Following successful commissioning and upon achieving steady state production, it is anticipated that an assessment over a 12 to 18 month period should determine the technical and commercial performance of the technology.