Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

CWP - Cedar Woods Properties

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4 October 2012
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CCWPss.gif
 
Technically its a punt.
Its not a bad trade but the stock is showing only a little
interest in turning up.
It has a downside potential of $3.50 ish.
Any break below the triangle should see a stop out of the trade.


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Just picked this stock up hoping it can get out of its down trend.

Couldn't resist replying to this as it perfectly illustrates my particular method of analysis of how stocks on the ASX move. See notes on chart.
Personally, I would wait for more sideways action (weeks to months) and then maybe buy with a break above $6.00 (depending on price and volume action at the time).

P.S. I'm not sure whether this purchase was part a defined strategy whether it be fundamental and/or technical based, but when I see the word 'hope' and nothing else it implies no strategy, just guesswork and that can be a recipe for disaster.
 

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Couldn't resist replying to this as it perfectly illustrates my particular method of analysis of how stocks on the ASX move. See notes on chart.
Personally, I would wait for more sideways action (weeks to months) and then maybe buy with a break above $6.00 (depending on price and volume action at the time).

P.S. I'm not sure whether this purchase was part a defined strategy whether it be fundamental and/or technical based, but when I see the word 'hope' and nothing else it implies no strategy, just guesswork and that can be a recipe for disaster.


Gordon7, may I compliment you on a beautifully drawn chart with excellent chart comments!

Cheers Ann
 
It broke 6 bucks on the report in Feb, then basically ever since then has been stuck in a downtrend. The next report released 26 august 15 seemed ok to me, actually quite good.

Is there something I missed on the report? It was a record profit, albeit on less revenue. Dividend was up. Balance sheet is strong. Pre Sales for the next year is up.

On yield alone this is hitting double digits if you include franking credits, assuming the next dividend doesn't decrease.

It does however look to be bottoming with the recent swing lows in June and August. I'd want to at least see it clear 5 bucks on volume. I might take a long/medium term punt on this just for the yield.
 
I also thought the report looked good with a decent outlook too. Other building related stocks have done well recently; I just don't get why the market is punishing this stock so much. Those are the breaks I suppose.

I'll keep watching for basing activity. I still would like it to clear 5 bucks on volume, it does seem like there is strong resistance at 5.50.
 
This one is still on the watchlist as I think its a good company, it looks like the resistance at 5.5 was too much and has been in a down trend since my last post. Lucky I did not take that punt...

Again looks to be basing technically with resistance at 4.30. Perhaps a break of the recent swing high @ 4.33 on nice volume will get me interested again. Perhaps it is basing now as its due to report late Feb.
 
Was there something I missed in the report it looked good to me.
NPAT up 100%
EPS up 93%
Revenue flat

NAT $3.69

Thoughts?
 
I'm holding from about $4, but bought 4 years ago. It has given back all its gain, but paid good dividends.

I take a bit of encouragement that Cedarwoods took a hell of a share price hit during the GFC but continued to pay a reduced dividend out of lower earnings and then recovered quickly - if 2 years is quick for your speed. The hit in the GFC was bigger than this one in relative terms (from $6 to $1)

My guess, and its only a hesitant guess, is that some are suspecting trouble ahead for residential housing, and remembering that CWP has significant investments in QLD and WA with some sensitivity to resources.

Its making a low here but wouldn't guess yet whether a bottom. Still cum a 12c ff dividend that goes ex 30 Mar
Director bought $160k of shares @4.03 on market, but thats not a big amount for him.

I will be holding, while accepting the possibility of a lower sp. I like the chances of the monthly chart so far, but lack the fundamental conviction to buy more.
 
For a trading stock, $4 4 years ago left a lot of potential profit on the table.
As a dividend-paying investment however, it averaged about 10% yield over the last 5 years, grossed up by franking credits. That's the same range as holding TLS for $4 cost base.

CWP DivHist.png

The weekly chart has it in a down trend for almost 2 years; that may or may not reverse soon. During the slide, we can observe some buying support in the lead-up to each half-yearly ex-div.

CWP 3yr 11-03-16.png

While I don't hold it directly in my portfolio, it is part of one of my investment funds. No problem.
 
with the break above 4.50 would you say the weekly down trend has been broken? We've had a higher low and now a higher high.

I've been watching this stock, basically as a yield play but I wanted some support before entering. It is starting to look a lot better.
 
with the break above 4.50 would you say the weekly down trend has been broken? We've had a higher low and now a higher high.

I've been watching this stock, basically as a yield play but I wanted some support before entering. It is starting to look a lot better.

Higher Low, Higher High - and the falling trendline has been broken.
That satisfies most people's criteria for a break of trend and would justify a cautious entry.
Obviously, you have to apply your own risk profile, giving you target, stop loss level, and position size.

As I mentioned before: I have CWP in an investment fund; additional exposure would go against my aim of maintaining a diversified portfolio.
 
Seems like last week I was talking bullish CWP. This thing cannot seem to keep its momentum post dividend.
 
Higher high, higher low
What bargain back in March, didn't add myself. Quality r/e developer. Good divvy payer

Held

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