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CSL - CSL Limited

Discussion in 'Stocks 0-H' started by kaisong, Dec 16, 2004.

  1. Superb Parrot

    Superb Parrot

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  2. financialreports

    financialreports

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    The price of CSL has risen substantially over the last few months as the company continued it's cash injections in the form of share buybacks.

    At these price levels, CSL may wish to reduce their buyback program and increase their investment in research, development and acquisitions.
     
  3. leyy

    leyy ley

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    Any thoughts on CSL?

    Bought a parcel of shares in CSL.

    Strong uptrend 5 year chart.

    Very strong fundamentals.

    circa 70% income in USD, with a low AUD/USD this should come out nicely.

    Interim report out on 11 Feb 2015, should show some positive results.
     
  4. Triathlete

    Triathlete Keep it Simple..!

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    My technical view is that I expect to see a pullback from these levels as their is a strong resistance level at the $90 area. If we get this than I would feel more confident of the stock continuing higher from here. I have attached my own Monthly analysis chart on the stock.


    CSL MONTHLY TRADING CHART.jpg
     
  5. PinguPingu

    PinguPingu

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    Glug glu glug, CHF having an impact!
     
  6. McCoy Pauley

    McCoy Pauley Get out of here Budweiser!

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    Been too busy with my day job to pore through CSL's numbers, but it seems like the fact that CSL reduced guidance for its full year NPAT growth from 12% down to 10%, as well as a set of figures in the first half that didn't shoot the lights out has contributed to the share price tumbling today.
     
  7. Value Collector

    Value Collector Have courage, and be kind.

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    They trade on a very high Pe, so I guess any sign of weakness (not that it was that weak), can see some of the froth blown off.

    I don't hold Csl, but I think it's a great company, if the share price did drop back a bit, I would happily take a position,
     
  8. Knobby22

    Knobby22 Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

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    Going back up today.
    My largest shareholding. I predict it will be over $100 a share within a year.
    It really is the only decent growth company in the top twenty.
     
  9. Value Collector

    Value Collector Have courage, and be kind.

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    No doubt that if they continue their buy back at the current rate it will eventually get there, whether that's this year or not who knows.

    What sort of earnings multiple do you personally think is fair for this company? I would be happy to pay a more than average simply because of their position in the industry and recession proof businesses, but $100 on current earnings seems fairly frothy, just wondering how you personally value it.
     
  10. Julia

    Julia In Memoriam

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    What about MQG? They seem to be back on track to repeat their performance pre GFC
     
  11. Knobby22

    Knobby22 Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

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    Well maybe. But it is more a company based on world wealth which deems to be stalling at the moment and you can't compare the track record (or the amount management takes from shareholders).

    CSL is now number two in blood products, number 3 (after the latest takeover) in Flu serums, is not tied to the Aussie market which is important in this market. It has even greater blue sky in the experimental works it undertakes ( a huge percentage of the profits goes to research). In capitalisation it has passed many major companies, Woolworths is the next one in line.

    A sign of a good company is one that many say is overpriced but then regrets they didn't buy. instead they but a cheap company and wonder why returns are poor long term.

    When valuing you need to take into account the continuing fall of the $A so you should add a 20% premium. You should in my view calculate the growth at about 15% a year though the CEO has temporarily lowered it at present to keep market share. The other downer is the plant in Bern which has been hit by the appreciating currency. So maybe the price is about right at the moment but if it drops to below $80 it is a definite buy.
     
  12. Knobby22

    Knobby22 Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

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    Just like to point out CSL is now above $90. The very short dip was a buying opportunity.
     
  13. Superb Parrot

    Superb Parrot

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    They already have had a three for one split. Wonder if another is in the wings as $100ish may be off-putting for some.
     
  14. Knobby22

    Knobby22 Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

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    I'd be all for it. Logically it doesn't make a difference but human psychology is not that logical.
     
  15. Knobby22

    Knobby22 Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

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    Over $100! As expected.:)
     
  16. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Found a good summary on CSL by UBS.

    https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/32800
     
  17. tinhat

    tinhat Pocket Calculator Operator

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    I would add that CSL is also an example of willingness to pay massive premium for defensive stocks, which is what these sort of "blue-chip" health industry stocks are perceived to represent (resilient to economic cycle).

    I sold out at $36 because I couldn't see the share price going anywhere. Since then (2012) EPS has risen >40% but the price has tripled.
     
  18. Knobby22

    Knobby22 Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

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    Now Paul McNamee has retired we have a standard CEO.

    Didn't take long for him to put his hand in the cookie jar.

    •CSL chairman John Shine and chief executive Paul Perreault argued their case for more generous executive pay after shareholders made a protest vote against the company’s remuneration model. More than one in four shareholders voted against the company’s move from an Australian model to an international model of executive pay, which could see the chief executive earn up to $14.1m. Shine said the executive pay model was appropriate seeing as though the company operates in 30 countries, and 90% of profits are sourced outside the country.
     
  19. Value Collector

    Value Collector Have courage, and be kind.

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    I found this video on the companies history, thought I would share it.

     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 30, 2016
  20. Value Collector

    Value Collector Have courage, and be kind.

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    Back down to circa $100, I have taken a position at $80 by selling a put, I would be happy to own at that level.

    It's a weird one to value, it definitely has a solid position and deserves a highish PE, but with the Buyback operating at levels being funded by debt it's hard to know how beneficial this will ultimately be, but I am comfortable with $80, I will probably just keep an out of the money put option position rolling until I can some stock via it being exercised, until then I can earn more in put premiums than I can by the CSL dividend.
     
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