CSD - Consolidated Tin Mines

[Joe Blow]

Consolidated Tin Mines Limited (CSD) is an Australian tin exploration and development company, focusing on tin deposits in northern Queensland.

http://www.consolidatedtinmines.com.au

 

[master g]

-----Csd has alot going on this year & next year in 2013.

I've been buying under the rader for the last 6 months. (Trying not to send the price up to hard to fast).
ONE of the quiet achievers of the Far North which deserves long overdue recognition is Consolidated Tin Metals.
This Cairns-based company has been feverishly going about its business behind the scenes and has become one of this year’s stand-out small resources stories.
It’s making good progress in developing its agship Mt Garnet tin project into a major long-term, large-scale tin mining operation.
The rising tin price has resulted in investors looking for quality projects in the sector
and this has placed CTM (or its ASX listing ofCSD) near the top of the list.
Just two-and-a-half years after listing on the ASX, the company is on target to open its $124 million Mr Garnet mill in 2013. It has forecast the project will deliver a gross value of $500 million over an initial 7.5-year mine life at a conservative $18,000 a tonne tin
price.
These conservative gures help to highlight a signicant upside
for the project as the initial mine life is likely to be 10 years and the
current tin price is about $26,000 and going up.
But CTM managing director Ralph De Lacey is condent the mine has a 30-year lifespan with a
$100 million a year turnover based on 5000 tonnes of tin concentrate at $20,000 a tonne.
He said what the company had
achieved had by and large gone unnoticed by the Far North community but it had been recognised by the ASX and prudent investors.
Construction of the mill is expected to take 12 months and will need 50 workers while the completed mill will require more than 30
sta to operate.
The rst test results from the rst four of 48 holes drilled reveal high-grade results with the results from another 44 to come.
The company is about to move into its next phase of exploration and development at Mt Garnet with drilling due to start at the Windemere project to upgrade its 2.1 million tonne JORC resource.
The company also has started a pre-feasibility study to further establish the robust nature of the project’s economics with the study including a pilot project scale test of the tin ore in western Australia.
The price of tin has been boosted to long-term highs this year and is currently about $25,400 a tonne. (NOW 33,000) per ton wow!

look @ the yearly charts=higher lows. The quarterly charts=higher lows....This is a VERY good sign! Plus i see tin prices still slowly on the move up.

2013 my guess price will be no lower than $1.00. imo

At the moment they are doing an offer 1 new share for every 4 shares holding & (1 option). Not a bad deal if you ask me! This to me is a fantastic 1-2 year hold. ( maybe selling 1/2 in 1year & hold rest to free carry)

Anyway for me it's a BUY as price imo will not be under .20 for much longer.

Have a great easter,

G signing out

 

[pixel]

I hope Master G is still around; it's been a loooong time to wait for a recovery.
But 2013 could well become the year for holders to crack a tinnie or two.



I had bought in August and added in December. Already sold half, kept the other half almost free-carried.
Now I'm waiting for the blow-off, so I can stock up again.

 

[masterg007]

I hope Master G is still around; it's been a loooong time to wait for a recovery.
But 2013 could well become the year for holders to crack a tinnie or two.

View attachment 50226

I had bought in August and added in December. Already sold half, kept the other half almost free-carried.
Now I'm waiting for the blow-off, so I can stock up again.

View attachment 50225

STILL holding!

Like i said i'm only selling 1/2 @ one buck. The rest time will tell.

 

[pixel]

I'm trading smaller swings for running expenses (like a nice bottle of Red )
Back Long again now.

 

[Swervin Mervin]

Master G and Pix what are your guys thoughts on this one simmering away at 10 for so long now? I've heard the PFS isn't due til Q4 now so thats a while away too.

 

[masterg007]

Master G and Pix what are your guys thoughts on this one simmering away at 10 for so long now? I've heard the PFS isn't due til Q4 now so thats a while away too.

The tin price and CSD's value (that should be represented by the share price) is not a straight forward linear relationship - There are so many variables to consider. However, take a look at the following, as an for example, but please confirm the values and check all calculations for yourself.

Assumptions:
Number of shares: 183 mil ord + 90 mil opt = 273 mil total.
Cost per tonne is $12k.
P/E set at 7.
100% owned.

@ $20k/t, proift: $8k/t * 5t = $40 mil. (MC: $280 mil)
@ $30k/t, profit: $18k/t * 5t = $90 mil. (MC: $630 mil)
@ $40k/t, profit: $28k/t * 5t = $140 mil. (MC: $980 mil)

So:
@ $20k, the share price could be 280/273 = $1.02.
@ $30k, the share price could be 630/273 = $2.30.
@ $40k, the share price could be 980/273 = $3.58.

Of course, the share price represents CSD's value but with risk factors applied (which sometimes are completely wrong).

If tin hits $40k, my target price would be 50% (if the JV is occuring) of $3.58 plus the 10% 'free' carry value (plus the option money), then multiplied by my perceived risk value.

I can assure you, with a tin price of $40k/t, the value I get is way more than 40 cents!

 

[Swervin Mervin]

Cheers for the detailed reply Master G. In your opinion what chance do you think there is of the 20c oppies being in the money come Dec 31?

 

[pixel]

Is this another breakout?
Could get back to double digits.


I hold. Will add if 8c becomes support.

 

[masterg007]

Looking goooood!!!

 

[pixel]

Looking goooood!!!

Looking ba-a-a-ad
Maybe ewe missed Thursday's and Friday;s Close...

 

[Swervin Mervin]

Looking ba-a-a-ad
Maybe ewe missed Thursday's and Friday;s Close...

View attachment 54692

Looking Goooooood!!

Ascending Triangle about to bust out to the upside big time. 14c target for this week

 

[pixel]

Looking Goooooood!!

Ascending Triangle about to bust out to the upside big time. 14c target for this week

That was then (4 weeks ago)
This is now - and you're right, it's looking much better again. Double digits are a real possibility.

 

[pixel]

Double digits are a real possibility.

... but not yet. Nothing but a couple of swingers so far.



at 8c, possibly even lower, may lie a real buying opportunity.

 

[Swervin Mervin]

... but not yet. Nothing but a couple of swingers so far.

View attachment 55220

at 8c, possibly even lower, may lie a real buying opportunity.

It got down there mate hope you topped up.

I've been watching CSD's trading for a few years now and this thing is seriously ready to pop. It might not have reached my 14c target this week but it will very soon. The market is slowly starting to take notice. Happy Days

 

[Early1]

A few things to understand about the recent history of CSD.
1. Between May and August, the company was in an upswing, ready to break out... BUT...
2. A company that owned a significant portion (at one stage was the second largest holder) sold.
3. At the same time (around the start of August for both), the ALL ORDs (and globe) pulled back.
4. The pullback has bottomed and settlement, a DFS and drilling results are almost here.

So where to now? Is it about to break upwards?

Once settlement is completed, the skies the limit with CSD then owning a working mill worth $100 million (replacement cost), a tin project worth nearly $200 million (using NPV), and free-carried drilling worth over $20 million, plus the many resources including working mines and leases (with two having market value of around another $20 million). I think we calculated $5 billion in resources in the ground, assuming commodity prices in Aussie dollars stays the same and conservative targets are met.

In the end, IF management deliver on their current statements, then long-termers should see substantial gains sooner rather than later.

;-)

Let the monkeys fight for the scraps.

PS - For Johnny Rotten and Princess Q; add together the assets and take away your predictions for Capex and loans and then divide by the number of shares. Yep, that's right, it's way more than 25 cents!

 

[Early1]

Just to be clear on the price target....

Once settlement is completed (yes, QLD government, hurry up will you), CSD will have 890 million shares and assets worth around $340 million. If you deduct $3 million for debt and a Capex of $76 million (as stated from the old PFS but soon to be updated), then it's around $260 million.

260/890 = 0.29 (or 29 cents).

Then, of course, the enterprise will be worth the most at the start, plus recent drill results from their free-carried arrangement with Wanguo has given it further resources to run with.

The only thing missing is SETTLEMENT!!!

www.csdtin.com.au

 

[Early1]

Is CSD about to move above 25 cents?

1. Between May and August, the company was in an upswing, ready to break out... BUT...
2. A company that owned a significant portion (at one stage was the second largest holder) sold.
3. At the same time (around the start of August for both), the ALL ORDs (and globe) pulled back.
4. The pullback has bottomed and settlement, a DFS and drilling results are almost here.

So where to now? Is it about to break upwards?

Once settlement is completed, the skies the limit with CSD then owning a working mill worth $100 million (replacement cost), a tin project worth nearly $200 million (using NPV), and free-carried drilling worth over $20 million, plus the many resources including working mines and leases (with two having market value of around another $20 million). I think we calculated $5 billion in resources in the ground, assuming commodity prices in Aussie dollars stays the same and conservative targets are met.

In the end, IF management deliver on their current statements, then long-termers should see substantial gains sooner rather than later.

;-)

Let the monkeys fight for the scraps.

PS - For Johnny Rotten and Princess Q; add together the assets and take away your predictions for Capex and loans and then divide by the number of shares. Yep, that's right, it's way more than 25 cents!

For those that worry my targets are adhoc, here's some further calcs:

Just to be clear on the price target....

Once settlement is completed (yes, QLD government, hurry up will you), CSD will have 890 million shares and assets worth around $340 million. If you deduct $3 million for debt and a Capex of $76 million (as stated from the old PFS but soon to be updated), then it's around $260 million.

260/890 = 0.29 (or 29 cents).

Then, of course, the enterprise will be worth the most at the start, plus recent drill results from their free-carried arrangement with Wanguo has given it further resources to run with.

The only thing missing is SETTLEMENT!!!

www.csdtin.com.au

 

[Early1]

Re: Is CSD about to move above 25 cents?

I should add that I'm a large holder and have been for a couple of years.

 

[Early1]

Re: Is CSD about to move above 25 cents?