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BPT - Beach Energy

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To my mild surprise G Canavan (fat tails investment advisory) lowered BPT to a hold a while back. He still has WDS and STO as buys in the energy space and on the 4th July raised WHC back to a buy suggesting it might be the cheapest stock in the ASX200.

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To my mild surprise G Canavan (fat tails investment advisory) lowered BPT to a hold a while back. He still has WDS and STO as buys in the energy space and on the 4th July raised WHC back to a buy suggesting it might be the cheapest stock in the ASX200.

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WHC not YAL ??

i hold BPT ( 'free-carried ') WDS ( at reduced risk ) and WHC ( 'free-carried ' but not YAL ( yet )

not dissing WHC were i have had a very nice run ( almost makes me look like a trader )

BPT has been very nice to me as well to reward my discipline of waiting for sub 80 cents and calmly buying the slide a few years back
 

Dona Ferentes

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Kerry Stokes shaking things up... all rather abrupt !

Appointment / Departure of CEO
Beach today appointed Mr Brett Woods as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer to commence 21 February 2024 or such other date as mutually agreed. Mr Woods has over 25 years of experience in upstream oil and gas including most recently 10 years at Santos where he undertook a number of executive roles including Chief Operating Officer, Vice President Developments and Vice President Eastern Australia business unit.

Beach chairman Glenn Davis welcomed Mr Woods on behalf of the board. “Brett is an experienced oil and gas executive with a track record in strong leadership, delivering operational excellence, project delivery and value creation for shareholders. He is a very experienced technical oil and gas leader with the skills and background to continue to strengthen our performance culture and operational delivery.”

Mr Woods said: “Beach is in a great position with a strong portfolio of assets and a great balance sheet. I am excited to join at a time where I can help the team deliver the current projects, drive operational excellence and grow the business.”

In the intervening period current non-executive director Mr Bruce Clement has been appointed interim Chief Executive Officer and will continue as an executive director. Commenting on the interim CEO role Mr Davis said the board is confident in the ability of Mr Clement to continue to deliver Beach’s growth projects and drive operational performance. “Bruce is a very seasoned oil and gas executive with over 40 years of domestic and international experience including as a CEO. He is very familiar with our Perth Basin assets having discovered Waitsia when managing director at AWE. The board is confident Bruce can fulfil the role in the interim period and deliver value whilst in the chair.”

Mr Morné Engelbrecht has today ended his tenure as CEO. Mr Davis thanked Mr Engelbrecht for his leadership of, and contribution to, Beach both as CEO and before that as CFO.
 

Dona Ferentes

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results out today... higher prices but lower production. Paying 2c dividend.

But the market didn't embrace the numbers
Screenshot_20230814-115738_CommSec.jpg
 
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Beach Energy is my selection for the October 2023 competition

i am watching announcements by Russia and Saudi Arabia about reducing oil production ( and an additional announcement reducing petroleum product exports to all but a select few nations for a short time )

take care the West is liable to take ( more ) extraordinary measures to keep oil prices lower as several face upcoming elections , and want to appear to be taming inflation

now BPT has both existing energy production and capped wells ( awaiting a friendly development climate ) so they can explore at their own leisure

i have done very nicely with my BPT holding and will not be considering adding above 80 cents a share

( i also hold SVW , a major shareholder )
 
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If of interest, G Canavan, of fat tails advisory, currently has a buy on BPT. He shifts back and forth a bit from Hold to Buy but Buy is his current. Forgotten the reasoning why specifically BPT but he has a small clutch of fossil fuel stocks that he recommends as buys or holds under the rubric 'Not Zero', sic, and BPT is the only current Buy amongst them except for an obscure emerging markets etf: FEMX.AX (because he argues EMs don't enforce the Net Zero dictate). He first recommended BPT 14/01/21 @ avg $1.97

It looks undervalued to me from a crude take - I haven't looked seriously at the projects. I always wonder to what extent government will interfere with gas pricing. The chart does not look decisive to me yet, it's been sort of caught in a big triangle shape for a few years?

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bought this in 2015 ( and 2016 ) after waiting for 3 years to get my target price ( and then got it in spades )

have extracted the investment cash since , i was looking for a 'channel trading vehicle here but the cycles are slow and consider it a failure as a 'channel trade strategy ' ( for me )

however in the comp. i am looking for a geopolitical trend , less oil production trying to front-run decreasing short ( and maybe mid ) term demand ( and keep oil prices elevated )

of course the unpredictable upside is a major 'hot war ' erupting ( which might even get me into the placings )
 
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Bought 5,000 BPT @ 1.52

Get some energy into the p/f - all I have otherwise is some scraps of WDS from the BHP distribution. Some more WDS and/or WHC (coal) are the other ones I'm considering. Greg Canavan has a buy on BPT. I'm of the view that BPT is better value than the price and it is likely to pay a good dividend but really haven't gone into it much.
Sentiment wise, I don't mind the chart, it might be maturing through a consolidation period before a move higher but it is not at all decisive looking imo.

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Exec director/interim CEO, Bruce Clement, spent about $90k on market to buy 60k shares at the current price in November.
am still waiting for sub 80 cents ( again ) to bulk up the holding

no point overpaying in a rigged commodity market
 
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Tacked on another 5,000 BPT @ 1.485. Bit bored, a casual buy.
LIstened to a financial sense webcast yesterday which dwelled on the conventional energy sector and how money is destined to 'rotate' back to it as the green dream fades and fully electric cars are rejected by consumers. Apparently the fossil energy stocks are at very appealing p/e and dividend yield numbers over there. In the U.S they also have cheap oil shale stocks to pick over and many high return on investment horizontal drilling reentry prospects that are lying dormant.
So Greg Canavan is backing BPT as a buy and its the only one that struck me as cheaper today. Would still like to add more to WDS and WHC too. Greg Canavan also likes STO. He calls all these 'Not Zero' picks (play on net zero carbon emission fantasy)

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Dona Ferentes

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"Beach Energy’s new chief executive, Brett Woods, has put exploration drilling in the Cooper Basin on ice and dropped a carbon capture project in a precursor to a major strategic review he expects will turn around performance at the underperforming oil and gas producer."
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key word is "new". ... when Stokes, père or fils, says "Jump", he can only reply, "How high?"

....and, basically, when 1st H is down 11%, then full year can be tweaked but actually be a good 2nd half.

up and closed at 1.705 .
 
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Couple of good days for BPT. Perhaps another example of momentum divergence with the share price lows foreshadowing a reversal in price - see the Oct-Nov period.
I haven't read the Half Yearly - just what Dona has extracted.
I think part of G Canavan's argument was that when BPT's increased capital investment was completed the market would respond to its cash generating stage. It was probably Waitsia that he was referring to?

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Dona Ferentes

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Couple of good days for BPT. Perhaps another example of momentum divergence with the share price lows foreshadowing a reversal in price - see the Oct-Dec period.
I haven't read the Half Yearly - just what Dona has extracted.
I think part of G Canavan's argument was that when BPT's increased capital investment was completed the market would respond to its cash generating stage. It was probably Waitsia that he was referring to?
been holding for a while... waitsia-ing for things to happen

 
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From Market Index today:

Beach Petroleum (BPT)

rating: BUY

Average price target / increase: $1.89 +4.6% (vs 12 Feb close $1.71 = +10.5%)

  • Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.95 from $1.55
  • Upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.95 from $1.70
  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.65
  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.67 from $1.66
  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.90
  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.65
  • Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $1.85
  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.50
Notes: This is probably the stock with the clearest bullish consensus among this group, both in terms of broker rating and price target

 
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