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BBG - Billabong International (1 Viewer)

RichKid

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Just checked out Billabong (BBG), was in a solid uptrend, has retraced since then, declined on falling volume with a final pivot low there at about 12.37. Has now consolidated and found support imo and has now worked its way out of the downtrend on higher swing lows and highs (ie an uptrend), the most recent swing low is at 13.05 imo.

Has broken the dowtrend and retested succesfully (so far) as shown in chart. Very high volume today- not sure why, maybe some form of option expiry or share conversion as there were two very large parcels traded. I'm watching the all time high (c14.60) for an approach to that level and further on to new highs. I like to get these swings early if I can, riskier though.

Downside risk is that this breakout is from a possible descending triangle but the early breakout suggests strength. A break of the recent swing high c13.55 would probably see more buyers enter as the pattern would be abvious by then.

I'm still learning this swing trading stuff so I may well be wrong, comments welcome from those swing traders out there.

Daily charts attached. Critiques welcome.
 

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Kauri

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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

Just a thought... :luigi:
 

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RichKid

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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

Kauri said:
Just a thought... :luigi:

Kauri, if I ever want to see a rounding turn I'll give you a holler as I'm sure you'll find one when no one else can!! ;)

But seriously, thanks, I didn't note that at first, didn't look circular enough for me but that rounding pattern is there, it's a change of short term trend in my opinion. I note that a lot of these patterns which have a distinct pivot point end up with these swings in the a-b-c pattern. So it's good to see different patterns and styles of trading correspond as it adds to the evidence of a trend, in this case the commencement of an upswing. Even if the sp falls a bit lower next week the higher swings will still be valid until the previous swing low is broken.
 

Kauri

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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

RichKid said:
Kauri, if I ever want to see a rounding turn I'll give you a holler as I'm sure you'll find one when no one else can!! ;)

But seriously, thanks, I didn't note that at first, didn't look circular enough for me but that rounding pattern is there, it's a change of short term trend in my opinion. I note that a lot of these patterns which have a distinct pivot point end up with these swings in the a-b-c pattern. So it's good to see different patterns and styles of trading correspond as it adds to the evidence of a trend, in this case the commencement of an upswing. Even if the sp falls a bit lower next week the higher swings will still be valid until the previous swing low is broken.

Without posting any charts.. ;) ;) the SP is sitting on a trend line drawn from Aug 04 through May 05 and on to the present. Everything seems to be in place for your swing up.
 

RichKid

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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

Kauri said:
Without posting any charts.. ;) ;) the SP is sitting on a trend line drawn from Aug 04 through May 05 and on to the present. Everything seems to be in place for your swing up.

Thanks for pointing that out Kauri, all that overlap of key trend lines suggests this is an important area for price trend determination. Odds are pointing up generally but we could see some volatility til this counter-trend reversal ends convincingly.
 

RichKid

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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

Got stopped out of this one. Poor stop placement imo- ie not the perfect set up. Let's see if it provides a low risk entry soon. Those rejection candles last week didn't help, I think I jumped the gun. Also noted a director sold a big parcel of shares last recently too, not a good sign. Let's see if support holds near that pivot. Appears to be a lower swing high now.
 
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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

RichKid said:
Kauri, if I ever want to see a rounding turn I'll give you a holler as I'm sure you'll find one when no one else can!! ;)

But seriously, thanks, I didn't note that at first, didn't look circular enough for me but that rounding pattern is there, it's a change of short term trend in my opinion. I note that a lot of these patterns which have a distinct pivot point end up with these swings in the a-b-c pattern. So it's good to see different patterns and styles of trading correspond as it adds to the evidence of a trend, in this case the commencement of an upswing. Even if the sp falls a bit lower next week the higher swings will still be valid until the previous swing low is broken.

aaahhhhhh Very Good!! Kauri, can we call you "CUP OF TEA KAURI"? ha ha
Do agree with RICHKID, it is great to see how we all perceive Charts!!
Cheers
Johnno
 

RichKid

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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

johnno261 said:
aaahhhhhh Very Good!! Kauri, can we call you "CUP OF TEA KAURI"? ha ha
Do agree with RICHKID, it is great to see how we all perceive Charts!!
Cheers
Johnno

Ha Ha!! I like that, 'cup of tea Kauri?' That's a good one.

I've heard that only some people are good at spotting visual patterns, with so many sets of eyes on this forum we should be able to get some good pattern studies going. Clearly Kauri specialises in shapely patterns ;)

Let's see what BBG turns into.
 
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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

Hi All

BBG up at 14.50 again.

Is this a DOUBLE TOP or has enough frustration built over the 5 months in the accumulation pattern ging to be enough to push this one through?

Cheers
 
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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

Rich, I agree with your analysis. This is the third upswing in the YTD. The trough occurred around May 05. I bought in then at $11-67, so very happy at present. In December 05, BBG announced that it had acquired 100% of Nixon a boardwear accessories company. The CBA announced it was selling its 9% in BBG. Rereading the ASX announcement it seems that the various financial management companies that CBA control were taking advantage of the Nixon announcement the day before and it looks like some warrants and / or options may have come due at that time. Nonetheless, BBG does appear to be in an upswing. It's interesting to note that it has been overbought more times than it has been oversold. Perhaps investors are still seeing value and growth in BBG. Time will of course tell. Chart is attached.
 

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RichKid

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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

Nice chart Ob1, shows the saucer like turn, this pause/bounce back from the highs is to be expected, only question now is how will it react? Will we see some sort of handle forming or will it range again or coil before a breakout...many possibilities.
 
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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

I agree Rich! Many possibilities. At close of trade on 6 January it was slightly down. A possible recoil, a possible retracing of the previous high. Time will tell but could be worth watching.
 
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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

Looking for support around the 13.90 area and then another BIG WHITE to compound in at half the current position size
 

RichKid

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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

ob1kenobi said:
I agree Rich! Many possibilities. At close of trade on 6 January it was slightly down. A possible recoil, a possible retracing of the previous high. Time will tell but could be worth watching.

I'm watching the top of that ledge from last month, I nearly bought there but chickened out.
 
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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

Here's the chart.

13.90ish would need to be it in terms of a retracement to have confidence to go longer looking for the 14.60 breakout.

This week should see the support kick in. By Friday, if this is as strong as it appears to be, the retracement could be over.
 

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RichKid

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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

Dutchy3 said:
Here's the chart.

13.90ish would need to be it in terms of a retracement to have confidence to go longer looking for the 14.60 breakout.

This week should see the support kick in. By Friday, if this is as strong as it appears to be, the retracement could be over.

Nice chart there Dutchy3, it's that major high that's in the way now, I'm looking to see if it'll close that gap just above the ledge or for signs that the short term decline is over.
 
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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

Hi RK

May indeed be a double top and this one will not work out.

I keep expecting to see Australian retail trade fall over and BBG with it. This XMAS appeared to be yet another records, albeit without the growth of previous years. Still the figure to watch is unemployment. As long as the generation who started work after 1992 have work I can't see the domestic consumption economy having too many issues. When it does stop ... there will be tears ...

BBG does have a history of making sure moves though. has not spent too much time range trading over its short history.
 

RichKid

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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

Dutchy3 said:
Hi RK

May indeed be a double top and this one will not work out.

I keep expecting to see Australian retail trade fall over and BBG with it. This XMAS appeared to be yet another records, albeit without the growth of previous years. Still the figure to watch is unemployment. As long as the generation who started work after 1992 have work I can't see the domestic consumption economy having too many issues. When it does stop ... there will be tears ...

BBG does have a history of making sure moves though. has not spent too much time range trading over its short history.

I am somewhat inclined to class BBG differently as it has exposure to international markets (including niche markets within that sphere) and is one of the few Australian companies to have gone global successfully and early. But investor sentiment is important and they can easily mark down a whole sector in one blow.
 
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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

RichKid said:
I am somewhat inclined to class BBG differently as it has exposure to international markets (including niche markets within that sphere) and is one of the few Australian companies to have gone global successfully and early. But investor sentiment is important and they can easily mark down a whole sector in one blow.

I agree Rich. I also have shares in Collorado and they don't seem to be as upbeat at times as BBG is. BBG have been making acquisitions globally and that may also be sending a positive message to the markets. As an Australian global business it has been successful, despite the sector its in.
 
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Re: BBG Billabong- upswing commencing?

BBG finding support @ .382 of the range up?

Looking for an excuse to compound pending these levels holding and top at 14.50 ish being taken out.
 

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