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BAL - Bellamy's Australia

Discussion in 'Stocks 0-H' started by System, Aug 7, 2014.

  1. System

    System Administrator

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    Bellamy's is a Tasmanian-based branded food business that offers a range of organic food and formula products for babies and toddlers. Bellamy's products are all Australian-made and certified organic.

    http://bellamysorganic.com.au
     
  2. jaeyon

    jaeyon

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    up 40% since floating earlier this month!
     
  3. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Forecast NPAT FY15 to be $5m by growing revenue ~170%. They have a tiny market share (~3%) so it doesn't take much industry growth to increase company sales. At the same time, I doubt too many people are going to miss them if they disappear from the shelves.

    At share price of $1.42, market cap is $135m so PE is pretty high even if you accept next year's growth as given (which isn't for obvious reasons).
     
  4. VSntchr

    VSntchr

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    Yeah. I had a look at the prospectus, but I passed before I even began with the numbers. Not something I'd be comfortable investing in. It appears its products are going on the whole healthy "organic" route - but to me its very superficial and easy to see through...its pitching on a trend which I don't see as sustainable.

    Just my opinion and it may in-fact do really well..
     
  5. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Do you have any children? Your mindset changes a little about these things when your own bloodline is involved.

    Building a brand that successfully says "organic" will a huge moat, particularly in China where food safety is headline news every now and then. But to build such reputation will take plenty of hard work and investments especially in a market like China.

    I think as a company it might do pretty good... just don't know about investing at current prices.
     
  6. VSntchr

    VSntchr

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    No, BUT...if it's the healthy aspect your coming from - I take health very seriously and I know where you are coming from with this statement. I go to lengths that I imagine the general public would find silly in pursuits of healthy living.

    Yes I agree, but my issue is that I think the way that corporates have jumped onto the organic bandwagon is a trend that the "clued-up" healthy crew understand is just marketing and spin - and perhaps won't be long until this is more widespread knowledge. This is just my own hopefully theory, I have no idea what will really happen..

    We could start talking about what really constitutes healthy, but probably a rabbit hole to be avoided for now...:eek:

    I agree. Just because I think about the health aspect of their products in a different way to what they want me to, doesn't mean they won't succeed!
     
  7. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    It will never be widespread knowledge. There is may be 0.1% of "clued-up" healthy crew in the universe, vs 97% easily spooked parents.

    http://www.abc.net.au/tv/thecheckout/clips/#

    See the "Guilty Mum" segment and particular the one on Food. It's funny because it's true!
     
  8. ROE

    ROE

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    my 2c I don't know anything about this business
    Just weight in on the debate about organic food ..

    I am with VS on this one
    We are a very active and healthy family everyone one of us including the children

    We hike, cycle, run, kayak and anything else we want to try
    I spend thousands each years on outdoor gears

    I just spent another thousand bucks on hiking shoes
    I spent on Everything outdoor but so call health food, it is just fab

    Most of this food stuff is fear based
    We eat junk foods and everything in between
    Exercise and moderation eating is all you need ..
    I can't remember when was the last time one of us is sick
     
  9. peter2

    peter2

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    Interesting price spike up this morning. No official news.

    bal0403.PNG
     
  10. Tyler Durden

    Tyler Durden

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    I just learnt of this company a few days ago, looks very interesting:

    BAL 280715.PNG
     
  11. Tyler Durden

    Tyler Durden

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    Of course, the day after I post about it, the SP falls down to $4.69.
     
  12. Junior

    Junior

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    I started watching this stock when it was <$2 and thought it was far too expensive :cautious:

    Amazing run up.
     
  13. Tyler Durden

    Tyler Durden

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    On 21/8/15 BAL announced they would be paying a dividend of $0.02865 per share.

    As of now the SP is $5.85.
     
  14. peter2

    peter2

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    BAL like BKL shows that investors are willing to pay heaps for a company that successfully gets its products into the Chinese market (which is HUGE).
     
  15. Tyler Durden

    Tyler Durden

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    It's on a good run, particularly in these rather nasty conditions. I wonder how long it will last.
     
  16. silence

    silence Toot Toot!

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    Still holding?

    Very solid close last Friday. Hoping it manages to break through the recent all time high for another run. The A2M shock EBITDA upgrade should lend even more strength to the whole baby food / quality food industry.

    Logarithmic and regular charts shown. Worst case scenario, retrace to $12 support?

    BAL-log.jpgBAL-nonlog.jpg
     
  17. Rainman

    Rainman

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  18. Triathlete

    Triathlete Keep it Simple..!

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    Since there has been a discussion on Bellamy's and the fact that a bubble is forming can those that have a Fundamental analysis view.

    Are you able to crunch these particular numbers that I have taken from the Lincoln Indicators stock doctor site and give their view as to where the share price could be if these forecasts are met?

    They currently have a satisfactory rating on the company.

    JUN 16 JUN 17

    ROA% 50.45% 103.99%
    ROE% 51.23% 70.51%
    Revenue growth 91.58% 52.40%
    EPS growth 173.32% 106.04%
    PEG 0.31

    Consensus Price target currently $14.00
    1st year return incudes dividends 173.20%
     
  19. Rainman

    Rainman

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    I like the way that you say "... if these forecasts are met". That is the critical issue: BAL shareholders had better hope that these forecasts are met come reporting season because if they are not this thing will re-rate with a vengeance.
     
  20. Triathlete

    Triathlete Keep it Simple..!

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    Yep, that is what I mean....I usually find it hard to believe these forecasts especially for a new company without sufficient data to analyse.
     
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